Monday, January 17, 2011

Polls show Sisyphean task ahead for Harper and Ignatieff

With election rumours swirling, the war of words has yet to have a profound impact on the voting intentions of Canadians. Though their rhetoric is heating up, neither Stephen Harper nor Michael Ignatieff appear capable of making any significant gains against each other.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

I suggest you check it out if you aren't interested in just the numbers in this projection update, which I will describe here.Nationally, the Conservatives have gained 0.6 points and lead with 35.4%. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 29% while the New Democrats are down 0.1 points to 15.7%. The Bloc Québécois is up 0.1 points to 10.3% nationally, and the Greens are down 0.5 points to 8.2%.

In terms of total seats, the Conservatives are down one to 135, the Liberals are up two to 98, the NDP is down one to 23, and the Bloc is steady at 52 seats.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up 2.2 points to 39.2% and have gained one seat. The NDP is down 0.7 points to 24.2% and have lost one seat. The Liberals are down 0.9 points to 22.9%, while the Greens are down 0.6 points to 11.3%. The Conservatives are projected to win 22 seats, the Liberals eight, and the NDP six.

In Alberta, the Conservatives are up 4.1 points to 60.7%. The Liberals are down 3.2 points to 18%, the NDP is down 0.5 points to 10.1%, and the Greens are down 0.4 points to 8.7%. The Conservatives are projected to win 27 seats and the Liberals one, unchanged from the December 20th projection.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives are down 2.3 points to 44.7% while the Liberals are up 0.8 points to 24%. The NDP is also up, 1.5 points to 22.4%. The Greens are steady at 7.2%. The Conservatives are projected to win 20 seats (-1), the Liberals five (unchanged), and the NDP three (+1).

In Ontario, both the Conservatives and Liberals have gained 0.3 points and now stand at 38.3% and 36%, respectively. The NDP is down 0.4 points to 15.3% and the Greens are down 0.2 points to 9.3%. The Conservatives are projected to win 50 seats (unchanged), while the Liberals would win 45 (+1) and the NDP 11 (-1).

The Bloc Québécois has gained 0.9 points in Quebec and leads with 40.2%. The Liberals are down 0.3 points to 22.4% while the Conservatives are up 0.5 points to 17.7%. The NDP is down 0.8 points to 12.4%, and the Greens are down 0.4 points to 6.1%. Unchanged from the last projection, the Bloc would win 52 seats, the Liberals 15, the Conservatives seven, and the NDP one.

Finally, in Atlantic Canada the Liberals are up 0.5 points to 41.4%. The Conservatives are down 1.7 points to 31.8%, and the NDP is unchanged at 18.6%. The Greens have dropped 0.9 points to 5.1%. The Liberals would win 22 seats (+1), the Conservatives eight (-1), and the NDP two (unchanged).

In terms of net gains and losses in the six regions, the Liberals come out on the bottom with a drop of 2.8 points. But most of that was in Alberta, and the party did gain two seats overall, thanks to better performances in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

The Greens were second worst, with a net loss of 2.5 points.

Middle-of-the-road honours goes to the NDP, with a net loss of 0.9 points. Their only gain was in the Prairies, which isn't a vital region for them.

Second place goes to the Bloc, with a gain of 0.9 points in Quebec.

This projection's winner is the Conservative Party, with a net gin of 3.1 points. But most of that was in British Columbia and Alberta and the party did lose one seat overall.