Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Dewar, Mulcair gain endorsements

EDIT: This post has been updated since this morning due to the withdrawal of Robert Chisholm from the race today.

It's Wednesday, so that means it is time to update the NDP leadership endorsement rankings. It's been a quiet week on the endorsement front. Only two new endorsements have been added to the system, and one of them just went unnoticed last week.

But the withdrawal of Robert Chisholm from the race brings the list of candidates down to eight. It also means that everyone has gained in the share of points, as Chisholm's 27.4 points are now taken off the table.

As always, you can right-click on the image to the right and open it in a new window to magnify.

Paul Dewar is this week's big winner after landing the support of the Manitoba Federation of Labour. Not only did Dewar get the support of the current president of the MFL, he received the support of the three preceding presidents.

The union numbers some 90,000 members (almost as many as the NDP itself!) and so this gives Dewar a gain of 5.4 points. He now has a total of 23.4 points and ranks fourth behind Peggy Nash. He has moved ahead of Niki Ashton, and I imagine quite definitively - at least for now. He and her have been swapping places for months.

Dewar now has 5.1% of all available endorsement points.

Thomas Mulcair has also gotten a small boost in the endorsement rankings. The support of Newfoundland and Labrador MHA Dale Kirby has been added to the system, but this means a gain of only 0.25 points (or, rounded up, 0.3).

Mulcair is now at 114.3 total points, 73.7 behind Brian Topp and 18.9 points ahead of Peggy Nash.

(Click here to learn more about the endorsement system and here for how the points are awarded.)

It is good to see Paul Dewar picking up some endorsements because I think the points system is under-estimating his support within the party. He has mentioned that he will be announcing new endorsements in the new year, as I imagine other candidates will be doing. But hopefully that will push Dewar up into the top tier of Mulcair, Topp, and Nash, where I think he belongs.

He is now, at least, in actual fourth place with the withdrawal of Chisholm. If Chisholm decides to endorse someone, I will assign half of those points to the person he chooses to endorse. If any of the people who endorsed Chisholm take their support to another person, the half-points will be removed from the person receiving Chisholm's support.

That means that Robert Chisholm alone is a big fish - worth 13.7 points until any of the people who have endorsed him go elsewhere. Darrell Dexter and Howard Hampton, worth 10 and 5 points, respectively, would also be good people to land if they are willing to hand their support out to another candidate. Another 4.5 points are available from the NDP members of the Nova Scotia legislature who lent their support to Chisholm.

The race has gotten a little more interesting, an undoubtedly the front benches of the Opposition will be happy to have an experienced person like Chisholm back in the House asking questions.

12 comments:

  1. So now that Chisholm is out of the race, what happens to to all of his endorsements and the points associated with him? Are all those supporters back "on the table" for the remaining candidates to go after? What if he endorses a particular candidate?

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  2. Nathan Cullen has the endorsement of former three term NDP MLA Corky Evans. I know this because I got a call to my home from Corky saying he is backing Nathan Cullen.

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  3. Robert Chisholm has dropped out of the race. This means that a number of endorsements are back up for grabs, the most important of them being, of course, Darrell Dexter's, but Howard Hampton is not an unimportant endorsement, nor is Ryan Cleary. The NSNDP caucus also no longer has a natural place to go with its endorsements.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/lack-of-french-forces-nova-scotias-robert-chisholm-out-of-ndp-race/article2279377/

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  4. Bernard, former MLAs are not counted.

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  5. I realize that you can't continually make updates and exceptions for individual endorsers, but Corky Evans really is a good one, at least in British Columbia his endorsement will carry some weight.

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  6. Gunna be a Martin Singh cheerleader here. He got the endorsement of the Sikh Board of Manitoba Gurdwaras (who have around 6-7,000 members). And yes I know I know.

    Gotta agree with Anonymous 16:29 too. I realize you can't make an exception for Corky Evans, but he's a pretty big name in BC politics.

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  7. I noticed that Dominic Cardy's endorsement is worth as much as Lorraine Michael's, what's your reasoning behind this?

    Cardy has only been leader since earlier the year, while Michael has led the NDP since 2006 and through two elections. She also has a caucus of 5, compared to Cardy having a caucus of 0, and while New Brunswick is larger then Newfoundland and Labrador I believe their NDP membership is roughly the same (last I saw there was no exact numbers for NB).

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  8. Just a comment on the point system. The Manitoba Federation of Labour is not a union, but rather an umbrella group of unions made up of affiliates. Therefore, you are in effect double counting union endorsements (United Steel Workers and CAW, for example, are both Manitoba Federation of Labour are affiliates).

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  9. Anonymous 2:00,

    Hmm, very good point. I'll think about this.

    Jordan,

    The reasoning behind this is that I put the NDP in NB and NL in the same "tier", and that Michael and Cardy are both leaders of the party in this tier.

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  10. You said you didn't count certain endorsements because they are retired MLAs, such as Corky Evans and Pat Atkinson. So, then why is Rosann Wowchuk, a former Manitoba MLA, listed on Paul Dewar's list?

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  11. Because I made an error. I'll fix for next update.

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  12. Corky Evans is an all- important endorsement in BC, even if he is retired. If the purpose of your poll is to show candidates' relative strengths with NDP voting members, it should reflect Corky's nod to Nathan Cullen.

    Dick Callison

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