Thursday, January 28, 2010

New AR Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid, not wanting to let EKOS have their way or give me a moment's rest, has released their latest poll.This one shows a larger margin between the Tories and the Liberals, as well as giving the Conservatives the lead. But, the poll is smaller and the margin of error larger, so this doesn't disprove the EKOS poll. What it does show is that the gap perceived by Angus-Reid is narrowing, as the Conservatives have dropped one point to 33% and the Liberals have gained one point to 29%, as compared with their January 12-13 poll. This is a good poll for the NDP, who are steady at 19%.

The Tories maintain a lead in Ontario, but lose one point to reach 36%. The Liberals have gained two points to reach 35%. The NDP drops three points to 19%.

In Quebec, the Bloc gains five points to reach 42%. The Liberals gain two and stand at 38%. The NDP gains one and stands at 14%, and the Conservatives lose five points to reach 11%. That is one of their lowest results in the province in ages.

British Columbia shows a close race, but the NDP is the big winner, up eight points to 30%. The Tories are down five to 35% and the Liberals are steady at 25%.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 127
Liberals - 88
Bloc Quebecois - 53
New Democrats - 40

A very good result for the NDP. The Liberals suffer from weak results in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada.

The poll had some other notable questions. As to the question of prorogation, only 18% agree that it was a good idea. Fully 61% disagreed.

As to what government Canadians want, 34% said Conservative of some kind (24% majority, 10% minority) and 36% said Liberal of some kind (20% majority, 16% minority). Looking at these numbers, it shows the Liberals have much more room for growth than the Conservatives.


  1. What the hell @ 9% "others" in Alberta? Wildrosers coming out? If people can't distinguish between the federal Conservatives and the provincial Tories, I don't know whether to cheer or be astounded.

    Anyways, interesting poll. I'm more inclined to follow Angus Reid just because I trust them on a lot of stuff.. though I'm also skeptical.

    However, the fact that so far, three polls in a row (IR, Ekos and AR - and who knows what Harris-Decima has in store) have shown a pretty big jump in support in Quebec for the federal Liberals, seems, at least to me, be vindication of a trend. Not an irreversible one, obviously, but a trend nevertheless.

    Let the good times roll!

  2. Yes, EKOS had a big "Other" result in Alberta as well. It doesn't matter, though, the Tories are still doing well enough that, at worst, it only puts one seat in danger in the projection.

  3. Which seat would that be, exactly? I'm betting either Edmonton Centre or Edmonton-Sherwood Park... how off am I?

  4. When Calgary West becomes ripe for the picking Eric, start ringing the bells, svp. XD

  5. Eric,

    Not sure if you can answer this for me or not. But why does it seem like some of the polls are always higher then the others.

    It seems like most times when I read about the AR polls they have the conservatives 3-4% higher then some of the others. Any idea on why that would consistently be that way. Or am I just mistaken on this point.



  6. Rocky,

    I haven't updated it in awhile, so take it with a grain of salt, but my findings here:

    show that Angus-Reid does tend to give somewhat higher results to the Tories and the NDP than the other pollsters. As to what that is, I don't know. It could be a simple matter of methodology. Each polling firm uses their own methods for getting results, and it can be that the methods they use provide better results for certain parties than the methods used by other pollsters.

    Because of this, it is more useful to look at individual polls in the context of other polls. If AR has the Tories at 33% and EKOS has them at 31%, that is pretty close. The reality is probably somewhere in between.

    More significant, though, is when you look at how each poll compares to other polls AND previous polls by the same firm. Both EKOS and AR show losses for the Conservatives and gains for the Liberals.

  7. The fact that the analysts keep saying Haiti hasn't had effect on the polls amaze me. IT STOPPED THE BLEEDING!!!Without haiti-there would be at least a 5% difference between the liberals and conservatives. Especially this week when the rallys were going on during the ekos polling and getting coverage with the media. Haiti helped believe me!!!

  8. Tommies,

    How the pollsters are framing the Haiti issue isn't one of "did it stop the bleeding," but rather has it given Harper an electoral booster shot? The answer is: no, it hasn't.

    In terms of cauterizing the wound, it might have, but only on the basis of countering slightly the common theme throughout the prorogation rallies of "do your jobs." The fact is, the government was doing what it was supposed to be doing, in regards to Haiti, and that has helped counter some, but not all, criticisms.

    Pollsters, on the other hand, are looking for a "aw Harper is compassionate" boost. The truth is, as Eric said before about the polls, somewhere in between: I don't think Canadians attribute the Haiti response to Harper, but rather to simply government and what it is supposed to do. I mean, the maxim goes, why should you get points for doing what you're supposed to be doing?

    Frame it that way, and you see how pollsters are looking at it.

  9. I'm not sure why anyone would have expected the situation in Haiti to give the Tories one single solitary extra vote. Its not as if Vancouver was devastated by an earthquake and Harper was seen as doing a great job of dealing with it. Haiti is a country that 99% of Canadians have no personal stake in. We are glad that Canada is seen to be doing some good things - but ultimately this was never going to be a vote determining issue.

  10. DL do you watch television at all? The images Canadians have been seeing have created an instant personal connection.

    Not to mention seeing our beloved governor general in tears over the suffering of her country of origin.

  11. "Beloved Governor General", Hah.

    Anyway this is a pretty weak poll, with a small N. If the Alberta numbers weren't suspect enough (are the Cons less popular in AB than the prairies now?), then the Atlantic Canada numbers should tell you something very important -ie. they surveyed very few people there and weighted them heavily. Apparently the NDP is poised for a big sweep in the maritimes; Maybe Darrel Dexter had a really good news week?

  12. Jason Liverpool said...
    "Beloved Governor General", Hah.

    Show a little respect.

  13. Hey Jason over this past year its been quite common for the Tories to be more popular in the Praires than in Alberta.

    Probably just confusion with Stelmach that's been dragging down their Alberta numbers.

    AR isn't a useless pollster. In fact its Eric's most trusted pollster, with a weighting of 1.50.

    The provincial breakdowns can have some noise from the small sample but the top line numbers always seem pretty bang on.

  14. If there is one thing that the polls are now unanimous on - its that any chance of a Conservative majority is D-E-D dead! In fact, we are now looking at scenarios where the combined Liberal+NDP seat count could easily be larger than the Tory seat count - which would create huge momentum for a post-election opposition accord.

  15. DL are you talking elections?

    Go ahead. Force one.

    Nobody is ready or has the money but the Conservatives. And the backlash could cause a big swing to the Tories like it did in the spring and summer of last year.

    I love elections and am really, really hoping the opposition goes for it.

  16. I'm talking whenever we have an election. Up until a few weeks ago it looked like the Tories might put a poisoned pill in the budget to engineer an early election - now they are probably shitting over the polls and will do ANYTHING to avoid giving the opposition a reason to bring them down. We'll probably have an election in the Fall by which time the Liberals and NDP will be flush with cash - but who knows. No one wanted an election in Jan. 2006 after having had one in June 2004 - but we had one and people took the opportunity to change governments.

  17. Volkov/Eric: Edmonton Centre may well be in trouble given Laurie Hawn's curmudgeonly dismissive performances (re detainee issue) in the media throughout December etc., and the prorogation issue generally.

    However, the Liberals and NDP could well split any surge in the left vote due to Anne MacLellan's supporters voting again (for a new female candidate whose name escapes me)in the post-Dion era after sitting out last time, COMBINED with the NDP fielding a potentially strong First Nations candidate (also the NDP have gained a bit of late in this traditionally centrist riding). In this case Hawn will certainly hold.

    That said, Edmonton Strathcona will remain the most competitive in the province I suspect, with NDP's incumbent Linda Duncan probably holding the seat no matter how low Alberta-wide numbers are for the NDP, though the government has tried to keep her in the dark about any EAP events, preferring to let their candidate present the cheque for the photo ops in and around the riding.

  18. Tory support in Edmonton Centre has a 40% floor. The only way Liberals squeak to victory is if NDP are single digits.

    Edmonton Strathcona is the opposite. Tory support still around a 40% floor but the NDP won because Liberal support was in the single digits.

    A strong NDP and a strong Liberal party will split the votes and ensure a Tory sweep in Alberta next election.

  19. @Anonymous: Another Edmonton Centre-phile!

    The Liberal candidate is Mary MacDonald, and the NDP candidate is Lewis Cardinal, though I didn't know about his First Nations connections. However, I don't think it will matter; if Edmonton Centre is anything like its southern (former) wannabe-Opposition-sister-riding, Edmonton-Strathcona, then the vote will center around the candidate with the best chance of winning. In this case, it would be the Liberal candidate, by virtue of base and history.

    Mind you, this is all speculation. I don't think MacDonald is a very strong candidate for the Liberals from what I've seen, and I don't think Laurie Hawn has damaged himself enough to cause him to lose the seat. There are also the odd provincial variables, because as we know, Edmonton Centre provincially is Liberal, as well as other surrounding ridings, yet Edmonton went Tory blue last time.

    I don't know for sure - but it will be a riding to watch.

  20. Shad: the NDP also won Edm-Strat because 2400 less people voted for the incumbent Reform/Conservative in 2008 than in 2006. That is to say the Conservatives lost 2400 votes in this riding (over 10% of their previous share). So it's wrong to assume Linda Duncan was elected only on Liberal weakness.

    Next election Conservatives are starting 'from scratch' with no incumbent, though, to compensate, their candidate is actually helping 'deliver' money as if he was already part of government (see previous post).

    Volk: It will be interesting if the non-reform vote will indeed coalesce in Edm-Cent, and my feeling too is that the votes would normally go Liberal, but I do believe NDP's Cardinal is well known already.

    At any rate, my sense is that voter anger is growing in both these ridings and many people that sat out last time will be voting again, and that is generally a good thing.

  21. Anon:

    I heartily agree! I don't know much about Cardinal, but I do know MacDonald isn't a great catch. However, we will see in due time. I personally think the Liberal vote will be more efficient, but anything could happen. I'd be more interested in the riding next door - Edmonton East, for a potential NDP pick-up over Centre. Ray Martin is running again. :D

    I don't know Peter Goldring's popularity levels, but if it is indeed true that anger will increase turnout, he could be in big trouble if Martin gets enough traction. Mind you, it would literally have to be a big swing; Martin can't squeeze much more out of the Liberal vote, and there was a 20-point gap between him and Goldring in 2008.

    But, interesting times in central Edmonton, thats for sure.

  22. "So it's wrong to assume Linda Duncan was elected only on Liberal weakness."

    Jaffer takes the blame too, he was spending way too much time outside his riding. No wonder voters stayed home.

    The new candidate worked in the PMO, so in a way he's already been part of the gov't for quite some time. He seems quite driven. Maybe too young though, might take two cycles for him to knock off Duncan.

  23. Didn't I read somewhere that Peter Goldring was retiring and that the seat would be open?

    It's worth noting that Edmonton East is easily the poorest riding in Alberta and went NDP in 1988 and contains provincial ridings that have gone NDP in the last couple of provincial elections - on paper its actually a better seat for the NDP than is Edmonton-Strathcona - which they already won.

  24. Shadow:

    Edm-Strat NDP trajectory last four federal elections:
    2000: 15%
    2004: 24%
    2006: 33%
    2008: 43%

    'Knocking off' Duncan will remain the stuff of your and the PMO-robo-staffer candidate's wild west dreams. A divided left did indeed bring 15 years of Reform/Alliance representation to Edmonton-Strathcona federally, but the last election returned the riding to its progressive roots. Pre-1993 the riding was home to progressive, small-c conservatives like David Kilgour and Doug Roche. And provincially it's been solidly NDP for a long time.

    It's great talking. I'll check in with you all again around election time.

  25. Anon you really expect the Liberals to stay in the single digits in that riding ?

    They've ditched the Green Shift and the French guy. Their Alberta numbers are up.

    Its hard to see the NDP not giving back some of that support.

  26. The fact that the Liberals have "ditched the Green shift and the French guy" may also mean that they take votes away from the Conservatives and help the NDP win by a bigger margin!

  27. DL we've already established that the Conservatives have a 40% floor in Edmonton Strathcona. Been that way for the last four elections. Liberals or NDP don't touch that support.

    The only way the NDP wins is if Liberals stay in single digits.

  28. "They've ditched the Green Shift and the French guy."
    Noted, but a bit offensive, Shadow, n'est-ce pas?

    But while we're on the subject, the Liberals had single digits in Ed-Strat last time despite fielding a Francophone candidate, and the riding does have a large Francophone base as well as UofA's Fac St-Jean (ok, i'll admit the candidate was otherwise weak, though).

    But you're missing the point anyway: next time their numbers may remain single-digit because voters in the riding really get behind the whole ABC, strategic voting thing. Liberals won't mind voting NDP again, just as in certain other ridings across the country NDPers will vote for strong Liberal candidates.

    And noone has established the 'floor' of 40% for the Conservatives in that riding. It's not about the left touching that support, it's about the left showing up in greater numbers to vote, thereby pushing the con percent down further.

    DL, it's great that Ray Martin remains dedicated to the people of Edmonton East. He may have better luck this time but it will be a mountain to climb for sure, Goldring present or not.

    More generally, Edmonton may indeed add one more non-blue seat next time. Whether red or orange is certainly unclear. If it happens anywhere in Alberta, it will be in Edmonton.

  29. "we've already established that the Conservatives have a 40% floor in Edmonton Strathcona"

    "floors" come and go...I'm sure the Alberta PCs thought they had a "floor" of support as well and now they are in freefall. The Liberals once thought they had a "floor" in Outremont - whatever happened to that?

    The Tories lost Edmonton-Strathcona when they were winning 38% of the national popular vote - if they fall to 31-32% next time - they will probably lose more ground in Strath. A falling tide lowers all ships.

  30. The Liberals have finally started to rise a little bit. Throughout the Conservative decline, the Liberals have pretty much held station. All thoe CPC votes were getting destributed very evenly around the political spectrum.

    Only now, as the CPC slide ends (and it has ended - every poll but one in 2010 has put CPC support between 31 and 34) have the Liberals started to make any real upward move at all.

    I suspect that's a result of them finally making some policy suggestions.

    As Rex Murphy put it yesterday, the only person who has shown the ability to consistently outsmart Stephen Harper is Stephen Harper.

  31. DL - The right-wing party in Albera has a floor. What the provincial Tories managed to do was stop being that party in the public's mind.

    Those other parties were always there. The Alberta Alliance. The Alberta First Party. The Socreds. But the PCs were able to be sufficiently appealing to the mainstream right, an entity that might only exist in Alberta, that those other parties were seen as fringe parties.

    No more.

  32. DL as Ira pointed out bad example with the PCs.

    Now let me correct the second half of your statement:

    "A falling tide lowers all ships."

    For the last 6 elections the CPC or Alliance or Reform has gotten almost exactly 40% of the vote (that's not including the PC).

    Anon claims nobody has established a 40% floor - I think I just did.

    Tory support has varied substantially outside and within Alberta during those 6 elections.

  33. rules are meant to be broken. Besides now there is rightwing competition for the Tories - Ignatieff's Liberals!

  34. About the Edmonton-Strathcona Liberal vote:

    It wasn't because of the candidate, as Anon pointed out without much refutation I might add. It was because of strategic voting that went in favour of Duncan. It happens all the time in Western ridings. Some Liberal and NDP officials go out of their way to tell people to vote for whichever party has the best chance. It happened in two ridings where it was safe to attack their own candidate - Kildonan-St. Paul for the Liberals, and Saanich-Gulf Islands for the NDP - and it happened it a few more ridings where the candidate was in good standing, but seen as such an obvious loser that you might as well not bother - Rosetown-Biggar, Vancouver Island North, Edmonton East and Edmonton-Strathcona.

    This is the nature of desperate, and obvious, left-wing prairie politics. Its how the cookie crumbles.

  35. Volkov we will surely see whether the Edmonton Strathcona drop in Liberal support was strategic voting at work or lack of enthusiasm for Dion.

    But if that Liberal support creeps up into double digits at the expense of the NDP then Duncan is out.

    Another spoiler could be an insurgent Green. They've been polling very, very well in Alberta lately.

  36. Shadow, they've always polled well in Alberta. Even throughout 2008, they were polling in the teens. It might increase to 10% next election, but it would be a jump from 8% - w00t. Besides, a good portion of Green voters are Tories.

  37. All of these polls are so different. One poll has the liberals miles ahead in Atlantic Canada whilst another has them behind the Tories. These polls appear to be extremely volatile and if I were a politician I wouldnt me comfortabe with any of these polls. I reckon the Tories will pull back after the Olympics and Iffy will put his foot in his mouth again and head south in the polls.

  38. As always, there are anomalies in the regional numbers - but the overall picture at the national level seems very clear - Tory support crashing back to just about 2004 levels.

    I don't understand why when Tory support crashes we are told that it doesn't mean anything - but when Tory support surged in late September somehow THAT really meant something.

    I guess its the usual thing partisans of all parties get into when the polling numbers are good they are the gospel and when they are bad they get dismissed as being meaningless.

  39. "Tory support crashing back to just about 2004 levels."

    Tory Support in the '04 election was 29.6%

    Tory support in the latest AR poll is 33%.

    BTW when Tory support surges it means we're about to have an election and they'll get their majority.

    When Tory support temporarily falls it just means there won't be an election.

    Harper controls the timing of the next election. Opposition doesn't.

  40. Given the two polls Ekos, simply because of the sample size has to be closer to reality.

    I agree with another poster that AR seems to favour the Tories more than other polls.

  41. "Harper controls the timing of the next election. Opposition doesn't."

    What if the Tories drop a few more points and are consistently 4-5 points behind the Liberals and more damaging revelations come out about detainees and what if there is some scandal waiting to erupt or if the March budget proves to be very unpopular...all it takes is a non-confidence vote and we could easily have an election at a time that is NOT convenient or desirable to Harper.

    I agree that he largely controls the timing when he is ahead and the opposition doesn't want to go to the polls. But the tgables can turn very quickly.

  42. Hey Anon, Ekos has nowhere near the weighting under Eric's system as AR.

    Sample size is irrelevent if your method of sampling creates errors, in fact it may only compound them. (Like prompting Green and Other for instance).

    "I agree with another poster that AR seems to favour the Tories more than other polls."

    Or you could say other pollsters disfavour the Tories.

    However a house effect doesn't make their results less true.

    Reality might favour the Tories too.

  43. OK DL under all but the most far fetched scenarios Harper controls election timing.

    The opposition is three parties. Very rare for ALL of them to be ahead in the polls.

    Additionally, each party is made up of individual members. A great deal of which get their pension this summer. It would take very few of them to stop an election by simply staying home for the vote.

    Also the parties are terrififed of the 10-15 point voter backlash for being seen wanting to provoke an election that nobody wants.

    Also each leader knows that if they mess up and lose seats they'll lose their job.

    For the opposition to call an election you'd need the consent of a very large and diverse group of people.

    For the PM to call an election he'd need to get the GG on the phone.

  44. The pro-Green bias is Ekos's polls is obvious. Every poll they've released in the past 3 years has placed Green support well above any electoral result.

    Increasing the sample size doesn't reduce the bias; it reduces the noise. Bias never goes away unless they change their methodology.

  45. "For the PM to call an election he'd need to get the GG on the phone." which case he becomes the lightning rod for all the anger over forcing an election no one wants. If you think Canadians were pissed off about prorogation - you ain't seen nothing yet compared to how they would feel if Harper called an election for no reason while the opposition was still ostensibly trying to make parliament work.

    BTW: The vast majority of MPs who qualify for pensions this June are Tory MPs so if anyone is going to want to avoid an election at all cost its the Tories!

  46. angus reid is the worst pollster in the business. the way this pollster is biased towards the tories is almost laughable. i do not know why anybody even reports his bs polls. its an online poll which makes it even more laughable. nanos ekos strategic counsel are ok angus reid is the worst almost as bad as ctv fife oliver and jane taber.

  47. Anonymous, I appreciate your enthusiasm but please tone it down a notch.

  48. if steve starts to crash and burn how long do you think the conservative caucus will hang with him. i mean a politicians first instinct is survival and when big steve starts to threaten that i mean watch out the knife wont be in the back it will slice right in the front interesting times ahead

  49. Anon it has been stated repeatedly that a house effect towards one party or another does not mean a party is WRONG.

    In fact there is good reason to believe someone like EKOS that prompts Green and "Other" to the harm of Tory numbers is incorrect.

    Also bias it NOT intentional but arises from the way polls are conducted.

    You may enjoy pollsters that benefit your party but that doesn't mean they are right.

    You're essentially lying to yourself, which is intellectual dishonesty at its worst.

  50. Hey DL I really don't remember that much anger over Harper's last election call, even though it broke his own fixed election date.

    Also its irrelevent whether individual Tory MPs want to go to the polls or not since its up to Harper alone.

  51. Ira: The pro-Green bias is Ekos's polls is obvious. Every poll they've released in the past 3 years has placed Green support well above any electoral result.

    Whether there's a "bias" depends on what you think the question is. The pollsters ask which party the voter would support; the election measures the number of voters that mark each X in the booth. These are only equivalent in an ideal world.

    In the real world the party machinery works very hard on GOTV (Get Out the Vote), but the older parties have done a better job of it than the Greens. The Green turnout has historically been below their polling numbers.

    That's the system and this is an observation, not a complaint. Greens have some demographic disadvantages. Younger voters are more mobile and hence less likely to be enumerated; they are also less likely to vote, regardless of their political leaning. However, nothing suggests a need for a change in the electoral system. What needs to change is the efficiency of the Green Machine, both at the riding and national levels. A campaign is in part a demonstration of the ability to run something.

    The Green Party has been steadily maturing. It will be interesting to see how large the Green "ballot adjustment" is in the next election. No experienced observer expects it to be zero. As always, the interesting things to watch are the trends, not the absolute numbers.

  52. John I think polls should measure voter support, not the support of Canadians at large.

    Why bother asking the opinion of people who don't vote for instance.

    I don't know enough about the methedology of Canadian pollsters to know if they are putting any kind of "likely voter" screen on the numbers.

    Or if someone like EKOS is simply weighting them to the census after asking Y or N whether they were planning to vote next election. Fact is many people say yes but then don't. Further screens are nessecary.

    Prompting also seems silly, especially for a non-existant party like "Other". That number is VASTLY inflated in EKOS polling.

    All in all i'm going to stick with Eric's pollster weightings because they're based on closeness to the actual 2008 election result.

    Angus Reid tops it.

  53. shadow poll or no poll i truly believe harper is starting to wear thin on a lot of people. His constant need to stir the pot and cause division is not what canadians wan't in a leader. as for prorogation i guess the grand master strategist strikes again.

  54. Anon, of course prorogation was a good idea.

    What better time to take control of the senate then when you have a sizeable amount of political capital/lead in the polls built up.

    He always knew he'd take a hit. The price was worth it though.

  55. well shadow you and stephen harper are probably the only 2 in the country that thinks it's a good idea. do you not understand anything prorogation just reinforced all the negative perceptions people have of harper. this one is going to stick and stick good. all the blue sweaters and piano playing and singing will not do it this time

  56. Shadow: John I think polls should measure voter support, not the support of Canadians at large.

    That's not an unreasonable opinion, but polls can only measure a response to a question. There are certain challenges to getting a reliable answer to, "Whom will you vote for? No really, are you going to get off your duff and down to the booth on election day? Or should we put you down as yet another goof-off?"

    Given the choice between pollsters applying their own adjustment factors (which would unavoidably have a large subjective factor, unlike demographic corrections) or being left to do it myself, I prefer the DIY approach. It reduces the number of uncertainties, even if it increases their magnitudes. Others may have different views.

    Regardless of what adjustments pollsters make, All Polls Are Wrong. We can never know by how much; even a poll the day before an election will be slightly out of date. Also, in the absence of proportional representation even accurate numbers may not properly reflect seats won. So we're better off just tracking trends over reasonable periods and not try to read too much into a single set of figures.

    Why bother asking the opinion of people who don't vote for instance.

    Because hearing the will of the people is important, even if they fail to exercise their right and duty.

  57. Asking whether people will vote will not always give reasonable results. I seem to recall the official report on the 2008 election saying that about 70% or 80% of the people they asked said they had voted.

  58. Éric: Asking whether people will vote will not always give reasonable results.

    Oh, I wouldn't say that.

    I'd say "never".

  59. does anybody know when nik nanos has a poll out. Just interested to know his polls always seem so accurate. Appreciate any info.

  60. I know in the US that they conduct a lot of polling based on "registered" and "likely" voters. Does anyone know how they get that "likely voter" result? Because that would probably address what Shadow is talking about.

  61. i think voter turnout for the next election will probably be based on how much the voters want to get rid of our current government. Isn't there a saying that people do not vote a goevernment in they vote a government out. If harper keeps PO ing people turnout will be higher and probably a slight collapse in ndp vote any thoughts?

  62. Hey Volkov the American pollsters have pretty sophisticated models where they try to predict the composition of the electorate.

    For instance in mid term elections voters are older and whiter than in presidential elections.

    Having an election every 2 years provides a wealth of exit polling data.

    I don't honestly know if we have enough data and the polls are big enough for any of the companies to do anything like that here in Canada.

    I noticed one of the pollsters was looking at voter intensity a few months back, that would be the sort of thing that would help build a likely voter model.

  63. Does anybody out there think the greens will poll in the double digits in the next election. How about Elizabeth May? is it possible she can win against Gary Lunn in British Columbia?

  64. Anonymous: Does anybody out there think the greens will poll in the double digits in the next election.

    Yes, definitely. The polling trend has been steadily up since the last election. There will be no "strategic voting" confusion. And the Green Machine is steadily improving at both the national and riding levels. The Green vote will probably still come in below the polling numbers, but not by as much as previously.

    How about Elizabeth May? is it possible she can win against Gary Lunn in British Columbia?

    Yes. This will require a well-executed campaign at the national and SGI riding level. It will also require Elizabeth May to adopt a more centrist position than she has in past so as to appeal to small-c conservative voters. That will please many Greens across the country and will result in more votes nation-wide.

    No question, an SGI upset will not be a cakewalk. But it's doable, unlike Central Nova.

  65. John i'm glad to hear that. I have always thought that Gary Lunn gave extremely poor representation to SGI, won't shed any tears if he goes down to defeat.


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