Saturday, January 30, 2010

Projection: CPC 136, LPC 92, BQ 50, NDP 30

A new projection shows the Conservatives losing and the Liberals gaining.The Tories drop two seats to 136 and 0.6 points to 34.9%. The Liberals have gained two seats to 92 and 0.4 points to 28.6%. The NDP is down 0.1 points and the Greens are up 0.1 points.

This is one of the largest Liberal gains we've seen in some time. And once the older polls are aged next month, we could see them make some serious gains.

The Conservatives are losing ground in every part of the country. Their seats losses come in the Prairies (where they are also down 0.3 points) and Ontario (down a massive 0.7 points). They've dropped 1.1 points in Alberta, 0.4 points in British Columbia, 0.3 points in Quebec and the North, and 0.1 points in Atlantic Canada. In short, it was a bad two weeks for them.

The Liberals made some important gains in some parts of the country, but are stable elsewhere. Their seat gains came in the Prairies (down 0.1 points, however) and Ontario (up 0.5 points). They also gained 0.4 points in Alberta, 0.2 points in British Columbia, and 0.1 points in Quebec, Atlantic Canada and the North. A decent month for them, but they have yet to take full advantage of Conservative losses.

The Bloc Quebecois was steady, losing only 0.1 points and maintaining their 50 seats.

The NDP did not have a good two weeks, but it wasn't bad either. They had a big gain of 0.5 points in Quebec and also won 0.2 points in the Prairies. They're stable in Atlantic Canada and the North, but are down 0.1 points in Ontario, 0.2 points in British Columbia, and 0.3 points in Alberta.

The Greens made a 0.5 point gain in Alberta but also a 0.3 point loss in Quebec. They're up 0.2 points in British Columbia.

Assuming the trends stay where they are for another month or so, we could easily see the Liberals back over 100 seats by the end of February. In a way, this new political reality demonstrates why it is not a good idea to throw out old polls in the projection. They act as rudders, steering the projection away from snap changes in the mood of the electorate.