Wednesday, January 27, 2010

New CROP Poll: 10-pt Bloc Lead

As usual, CROP has released new polling data to La Presse without making the full results available on their (rarely updated) website. Also, as usual, La Presse has not made the details available. However, unlike most media reports, there is enough here to do a full analysis and include it into the projection.So, this poll has the Bloc a few points lower at 34%, though with the 3% MOE, and considering it is CROP, that isn't very significant.

The Liberals are low at 24%, however, and the Conservatives are high at 21%. But these are still not outside of what we've been seeing over the last few months. Oddly enough, while Ontario and Atlantic Canada are showing great movement, Quebec's voting intentions have hardly changed since last the spring of 2009.

At 17%, the NDP is flying high. Though CROP tends to put the NDP high at the expense of the Bloc.

The Green result wasn't reported, but only 4% remains so we'll assume that was their result.

40% of francophones support the Bloc, compared to 20% who support the Conservatives and 19% who support the Liberals. Considering everything else, that is a decent result for the Tories.

In and around Montreal, the Bloc leads with 32%, followed closely by the Liberals at 30%.

In and around Quebec, unlike in the recent Léger poll, the Conservatives have a significant lead with 33%. The Bloc follows at 24% and the Liberals are third with 22%.

Finally, in the "Rest of Quebec" category, the Bloc has 39% to the Conservatives' 25% and the Liberals' 16%.

This poll tells us that not much has changed since the 2008 election. The NDP is showing strength, but they do not have the kind of regional strength that the Conservatives and Liberals have. This puts them in a good position to hold on to Outremont and maybe take a seat in the Outaouais, but nothing else. The Quebec City and ROQ results show that the Tories will be strong around the capital city and the Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean region. The Liberals look like they won't break-out off of the island of Montreal, while the Bloc is in a comfortable position to keep what they currently have.

17 comments:

  1. According to Norman Spector's column this poll also has Layton in forst place as "best PM" with 28% compared to 24% for Harper and 20% for Iggy.

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  2. I guess Quebeckers don't really care/know about prorogation.

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  3. I'm not sure what makes you say that when the poll indicates that 67% of Quebecers disapprove of the current federal government and about 8 in 10 would vote for one of the opposition parties. That's quite a far cry from the "salad days" of 2007 and early 2008 when the Tories were routinely polling over 30% in Quebec and looked poised for a big breakthrough.

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  4. "I'm not sure what makes you say that"

    Because there has been no statistically significant change since the last CROP poll in October. (Gov't direction and support down by 1%).

    BTW aren't you the guy who always harps about those by-elections ?

    If I remember correctly the Conservatives DID pick up a seat in the province recently.

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  5. The thing is that Conservative support in Quebec is already so low that its hard for it to go much lower. The vast majority of people in Quebec concluded that Harper was a maniac a long time ago - its just that now people in the rest of the country are catching up to them.

    Its also been noted that the whole prorogation issue didn't get nearly as much play in Quebec as it did in the rest of the country. Quebecers probably react by thinking "so Harper is a dictatorial pig - tell me something I didn't already know!"

    I suppose if you're a Tory, you can take consolation in the fact that even in the one province where the prorogation got minimal publicity - Tory support is still at a humiliatingly low 21%.

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  6. The prorogation issue has been pushed off the front page by the Haitian disaster. As many Haitians live in Quebec and it is a francophone country, it has been a bigger issue in Quebec than in the rest of Canada. So that plays a role.

    Also, many Quebecers see the National Assembly as the most important legislature to them, rather than the House of Commons. So, it might not seem like such a big deal to shut down Parliament for a little while.

    I know that with all of the elections Quebec has had recently (several provincial and federal by-elections, provincial elections in 2007 and 2008, federal elections in 2006 and 2008, and the recent province-wide municipal elections) there is a little bit of political fatigue, which might also be playing a role in the steady Quebec numbers.

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  7. Its also true that the anti-prorogation movement has been largely spearheaded by the NDP and Liberals. The BQ has been lying low about it so far.

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  8. Their position seems to be that Quebec has more pressing constitutional needs than reforming the way parliament is prorogued.

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  9. Its also worth noting that during the previous prorogation tempest in Dec. '08 - it was Quebec which was infuriated while English Canada went along with it. This time the roles are reversed.

    Part of the reason is that the opposition has been successful in characterising the prorogation as "Harper not showing up for work" - and that bothers WASPs with a strong Protestant Work Ethic.

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  10. All of which seems to justify my original statement:

    I guess Quebeckers don't really care/know about prorogation.


    BTW - DL not sure where you live but a lot of the protestants I know aren't white anglo saxons. The term seems a little out of place given Canada's demography.

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  11. 80% of Quebecers already know that they hate Harper - there is no reason for them to pay attention to this latest outrage. They made up their minds about Harper after the last self-serving manipulative prorogation last year (which was conveniently accompanied by vicious Quebec-bashing and coded anti-French bigotry) - so they have nothing new to learn from this one.

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  12. DL I think you seem to provide evidence that the latest "outrage" about prorogation is simply people who don't like Harper already latching on to something.

    The numbers from EKOS this thursday should be interesting.

    Let's see if the rallies on saturday had any effect on the voting intention of Canadians.

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  13. I think the rallies are irrelevant. We know from polling data that Canadians were aghast at what Harper did - and we don't need to count heads at rallies to know that.

    Just how many people attended anti-coalition rallies last December?? As I recall, the attendance at pro-coalition rallies was larger than at anti-coalition rallies - to the extent that a myth has been created that canadians "rejected" the coalition - its all based on polling data and not on how many people picketed.

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  14. An interesting poll, to be sure, though I'm not surprised by the results. And as opposed to Shadow, I do think most Quebecers are a little miffed about prorogation, but I mean, for Christ's sake, look at the alternatives - especially the Liberals, who have an awful history in Quebec. I don't think the Liberals can get much lower, and the Bloc is also nearing its floor. I mean, what sort of shift did you expect?

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  15. I think the rallies are irrelevant. We know from polling data that Canadians were aghast at what Harper did - and we don't need to count heads at rallies to know that.

    The main value of the rallies is that it prevents the CPC from seizing the agenda and making everyone forget about the prorogation and the various reasons it happened. If we had heard nothing all this time, then we would be hearing about the need to "move forward" and all that, complete with claims that if it was such a big deal, why did everyone wait until March to resume complaining about it.

    Instead it is the issue that won't go away. The number of heads counted at the rallies doesn't have to be very big to keep it alive. Only if they had protests in Toronto with a few dozen showing up would it be a true flop. And as you say, it's the polls that really matter in this.

    It is looking more and more like this was the tipping point.

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  16. Hey Eric, I don't know if you saw this already, but: http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100127/mtl_tories_poll_100127/20100127/?hub=MontrealHome

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  17. DL let me correct you.

    I believe Macleans had the anti coalition number at 4600 and the pro coalition number at 4300. The prorogation rallies had far, far more people in attendence.

    Then again the anti prorogation rallies were planned weeks in advance and cheered on by the media, giving them and the facebook group free advertising worth >$100,000 i'm guessing.


    BWT the notion that Canadians were "aghast" at prorogation has already been debunked here.

    Only about a 1/3 of Canadians really understood the issue. And of them only 58% were opposed.

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