Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Projection: 138 CPC, 90 LPC, 50 BQ, 30 NDP

With all of the polls that came out after the holidays, a projection update was long overdue. And here it is!Small changes, but significant changes.

The Conservatives, who have been growing update after update since September, post their first major loss, almost an entire point nationally. They now stand at 35.5%, lower than both their 2008 and 2008 electoral results. They are also down three seats, all of them in Ontario, and stand at 138. Compared to the mid-December projection, the Conservatives haven't posted a gain anywhere, and the only small losses they have were in Atlantic Canada and the North (0.2 points each). Their biggest loss comes in Ontario (1.2 points) where they now stand at 38.0%. They're also down 0.8 points in the Prairies, 0.6 points in British Columbia, 0.5 points in Alberta, and 0.4 points in Quebec.

Nationally, the Liberals posted a tiny, 0.1-point gain to 28.2%. But more importantly they are up two seats to 90. They did not post gains throughout the country, however. They are down 0.2 points in Atlantic Canada (and one seat) and 0.3 points in Alberta and Quebec. Their gains came in the North (0.1 points), British Columbia (0.2 points), the Prairies (0.3 points) and Ontario (0.6 points and three seats). Being up in BC and Ontario is important for the Liberals, but losing ground in Atlantic Canada and Quebec is not a good sign.

The NDP make the largest national gain, up 0.3 points to 16.3% and up one seat to 30. Their regional results remained stable however, only losing 0.1 points in Quebec but not gaining more than 0.3 points anywhere else. They are up 0.1 points in British Columbia, the Prairies, Atlantic Canada (where they pick up their seat) and the North. They're up 0.2 points in Ontario and 0.3 points in Alberta.

The Bloc Quebecois had a good month, as they are 0.4 points in the province up to 38.1%, matching their 2008 electoral results.

The Greens are up a tiny bit (0.1 points), and remained unchanged in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and the North. They're up 0.1 points in British Columbia, down 0.1 in Alberta, and up 0.4 in the Prairies.

So, every party makes some gains at the expense of the Conservatives. The winner this month has to be the NDP, as they are posting slow but steady growth. The Bloc is also doing well, while the Liberals are showing mixed, but overall, improvement. Only the Tories had a uniformly bad month.