Wednesday, January 27, 2010

New HD Poll: 1-pt Conservative Lead

CTV has information on the latest Harris-Decima poll, taken between January 21 and January 24 and involving 1,000 Canadians. No details on the HD site yet, but we have:

Conservatives - 32%
Liberals - 31%
New Democrats - 15%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 10%

Once HD puts the details on their site, I'll do a full report. There's enough information here, though, to add this poll to the national projection for the time-being.

Nothing ground-breaking in those numbers, though. The race is still close.


  1. :D I like them numbers.

    However, the article I read makes it clear that it is just opposition to Harper, and not love for Iggy. But, it also shows that the NDP are still - and forever will be - the third party. This makes me smile.

  2. Hmm so this is -2 Con, +1 liberal, +1 BQ, +1 Green and -1 NDP.

    I wonder if its just noise from the 3% MOE.

    Or if HD is finally showing prorogation movement. It was one of the very few polls to show ZERO movement between december and january.

    I'm interested in looking at the leadership numbers.

  3. Polls after polls are showing a virtual tie between the tories and the liberals. How come your projections do not change based on these polls? If you forget to do that then please remove the big banner from the top of the site and push it to the place where it fits.

  4. Syed,

    Eric (the site's author) can't do everything right away. He does hae a life, and I'm guessing the projection - the weighting, the calculations, etc. - takes time.

    As well, the projection will not show right away a virtual tie between the Liberals and Conservatives. Its a weighted system, meaning the polls from the fall, where the Liberals nearly dropped off the face of the planet, will still have an effect. The lead will slim, but it won't slim to the point where its a virtual tie.

  5. I see you're new here.

    When the Liberals were in front last year and the projection shifted to reflect that, they then tanked and the Conservatives rushed ahead. My projection reacted slowly, as it is designed to do, and I had Conservative supporters demanding why I wasn't showing the Tories in front, assuming I was some sort of partisan for the Liberals.

    Now that there is a tie again, I'm sure I'm going to have some Liberals storm in here and tell me how wrong I am, and how I'm probably a Tory.

    Then I'll have the Liberals in front if they hold this trend long enough, and then when they lose that lead and my projection reacts slowly I'll have Conservatives coming in here telling me I'm wrong again.

    The projection reacts slowly, it does not flail wildly because of a few polls. If the Liberals hold this trend for a few weeks, the projection will shift accordingly.

    As I've explained dozens of times, as I've explained in the sections that inform readers how the projection works, the projection is a long-term projection, reflecting the likely result after an election campaign.

    When election time comes, I'll change the projection system slightly to reflect the reducing period between the poll and election day.

    But as we're not in an election, we have a minimum of about 40 days at any time between a poll being released and a potential election date.

    Outside of an election, the projection projects the result AFTER an election campaign.

    In other words, the recent trends are being reflected in the projection, but long-held voting intentions and behaviour are also being taken into consideration. If, say, in the last three months 36% of people were going to vote Conservative, and now in the last two weeks polls show that number to be closer to 30%, the likely actual voting result will be somewhere in between, because things change, and people tend to fall back on past voting behaviour. And flash-in-the-pan trends don't tend to hold out during an election campaign.

    To put it simply, Conservative polling has been too strong for too long for a two week shift to change things radically. If the Liberals hold these numbers for a few more weeks, they could take the lead in the projection.

  6. Also, Éric's simply offering his own opinions with his projections. He doesn't claim to be a pro and his guarantee is limited to the price you paid for the goods. I'm sure he'd welcome a regular alternative calculation submitted through the comments.

    I have far more faith in Éric's projections than I do in any individual poll. There's a lot of noise on top of the signal and the projections smooth this out a bit. I'm thankful for his public service.

  7. Eric, the latest from Ekos:

  8. Its nice to see Tories fiddling while Rome burns - in denial that Harper has laid an egg and that the public has had enough. maybe a spring election wouldn't be such a bad idea after all. The sooner the Harper nightmare ends - the better.

  9. EKOS tonight shows Liberals in the lead. Prorogue is sinking Harper.

  10. "Its nice to see Tories fiddling while Rome burns"

    Air lifting Canadians to safety using the military planes the NDP opposed purchasing is NOT fiddling.

    Its called saving lives.

  11. Air lifting Canadians to safety using the military planes the NDP opposed purchasing is NOT fiddling.

    Its called saving lives.

    And that, my sir, is called a straw man.

  12. Pointing out that the government and its agenda doesn't grind to a halt because of a temporary stretch of bad polling ?

    We were behind for most of last year. Dion was up 10 points once.

    Its nothing new. Tories aren't the kind to freak out. We're not even supposed to be in gov't, this is Canada for goodness sake!

    Everything is just slow and steady no drama incremental change. When our time is up, its up.

  13. shadow the govenment is only doing what we expect them to do in Haiti,which is beside the point i do not see any government anywhere having daily press conferences about what their doing in Haiti. Which just goes to prove nothing is beneath Stephen Harper and his cronies. Trying to score points on the misery of others. Anyway he is doing f-all it's our military.


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