Monday, February 15, 2010

Leadership Poll from Nanos

Here's a new leadership poll from Nanos Research.

Nanos compares this poll to one taken in December (that I do not recall). On trust, Stephen Harper is first with 25%, followed by Jack Layton at 20.8%, and Michael Ignatieff at 10.4%. Worth noting is that Layton and Harper have swapped four points since that last poll, in December.

For competence, Harper has 33.6%, Layton has 14.2%, and Ignatieff has 13.9%. A gain of 3.4-points by Layton is the only one outside of the MOE.

As for who would be the best Prime Minister:

Stephen Harper - 32.0%
Jack Layton - 18.1%
Michael Ignatieff - 16.1%
Elizabeth May - 6.9%

The changes from December are all within the MOE, though Ignatieff and Harper are down and Layton is up.

Harper's best result came in the Prairies (48.4%), and his worst was in Quebec (22.2%). Layton's best was in British Columbia (23.8%) and his worst was in the Prairies (12.4%). Ignatieff's best was in Ontario (19.4%) and his worst was in British Columbia (8.7%).

That the Liberals are still polling so highly hints at a few things: people like their local Liberal candidate or the Liberal 'team' more than they do the leader, or people see the Liberals as the only real alternative to the Conservatives no matter who is the leader, or people don't personally like Ignatieff by will vote for him anyway. It is impossible to know what is the truth, but what we do know is that people aren't supporting the Liberals specifically because of Ignatieff.

The "Best PM" track has been updated. Harper and Layton are up two points. Ignatieff is stuck at 15%.

6 comments:

  1. And judging by the "Which party would you vote for" numbers, almost everyone who will vote CPC think Harper is competent.

    Or to put it another way, virtually no one is a reluctant supporter of the CPC.

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  2. The CPC is the Alexander Keith's of Canadian politics. Those who like it like it a lot.

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  3. Doctor Cynic - Agreed, it looks like 100% of the people who think Harper is competent vote PC.

    As well, Harper had the largest decline at 2.8%

    http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/155

    Overall, these numbers are still in line with the fact that the conservatives have come a long way from when they flirted with Majority terrority.

    As usual though, Harper can't help himself when he gets around these numbers - he'll alwys figure out a way to screw it.

    One has to wonder if Harper would be so Haiti-focused if his numbers were better? Any ideas?

    Josh

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  4. It kind of makes sense that the Harper numbers and Conservative numbers are the same. I have not heard enough from even one other member of that party in the last four years to decide whether I like them or not. The Conservative Party right now is pretty much a one-man show, (or, if you prefer, the Harper P.R. firm.)

    I remember when the Progressive Conservatives were down to two seats in 1995 and were polling at 20%. Someone asked, "are all those people voting PC because of Charest?" And the response he got was, "Well, it's not Elsie Wayne!"

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  5. Eric, new Angus Reid poll is out:

    http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/2010.02.16_Politics_CAN.pdf

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  6. Interesting poll from the perspective of a Liberal.

    I think its still clear that Ignatieff is not loved. I'm willing to bet there is a large amount of "unsure" voters always around him, but still, the writing is pretty clear on the wall.

    But as Eric pointed out, the fact that the Liberals poll so highly while still having a more-or-less dud leader, is a pretty good sign of the strength of our base support. And it may be that Ignatieff isn't loved, but maybe he isn't hated either, and that he isn't as much a detriment as Dion was to the Party. If that is the case, then it means most of those people who wouldn't vote for Dion, but wouldn't vote any other party either, and there were quite a lot of them, will come out next election.

    I don't know. I don't expect Iggy to increase his leadership numbers in any drastic way. But, I do know that even Chretien has horrible leadership numbers when faced off against Mulroney and even Kim Campbell, so hope is far from gone. :D

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