Monday, February 8, 2010

New Nanos Poll: 1.7-pt Conservative Lead

Nanos Research has a new poll out.Nanos is an interesting pollster as they don't prompt the people they survey with party names. This tends to give lower results for the Greens. Whether this is more accurate or not is debatable, the likely truth being somewhere in between the pollsters that prompt and those that don't.

This contributes to very high totals for both the Conservatives and Liberals. Rather than being tired in the low-30s, Nanos has them tied in the mid-30s. At 35.6%, the Conservatives are not in crisis mode, as this was what got them into government in 2006. But at 33.9%, the Liberals are flying high, higher than they have since the heady days of August and September 2009.

What is probably most significant is that compared to Nanos's poll of mid-December, this marks a 3.9 point loss and 3.7 point gain for the Conservatives and Liberals, respectively.

The NDP drops 2.3 points and is at 16.4%. Normally this wouldn't be troublesome, except for the horrible regional results they got.

Let's get to those. In Ontario, the Liberals are very high at 42%, up 3.5 points from December. The Conservatives are still in it at 39.4%, up two points. But the NDP is hurting at 10.9%, down 5.7 points. That is massive, and positively disastrous. I estimate that would drop them to seven seats in the province.

Quebec is looking much more stable. The Bloc Quebecois gains 0.8 points and is at 33.2%, low for them but Nanos seems to have been polling low for them lately. The Liberals lose 0.2 points and are doing well at 29.3%, while the Conservatives are still showing some strength with 22.2% (down 1.6 points).

Nanos confirms Tory troubles in British Columbia, as they are down 6.1 points to 37.1%. The Liberals are up 3.6 points to 31.9%, very good for them, and the NDP is at 24.7%.

As Nanos lumps Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba together for their polling, I can't use those numbers. Suffice to say, the Conservatives drop 10 points in the super-region, but are still well ahead.

I also can't go a complete seat projection for this poll because of this. But, using the current projections for Alberta and the Prairies, this poll gives me:

Conservatives - 132
Liberals - 110
Bloc Quebecois - 45
New Democrats - 21

High Ontario numbers for the Conservatives and Liberals and low numbers for the Bloc Quebecois inflate the two major parties' totals.

I hope to have a projection update soon, with luck before EKOS's poll on Thursday. I will have a January-average update tomorrow or Wednesday.