Friday, February 12, 2010

Projection Update: 131 CPC, 97 LPC, 50 BQ, 30 NDP

A projection update has the Conservatives dropping five seats, all picked up by the Liberals.

However, at 131 seats, the Conservatives maintain a stable minority level of seats.

Nationally, the Conservatives have dropped 0.7 points to 34.2%, while the Liberals have gained 0.5 points and are at 29.1%. The NDP has dropped 0.1 points and stands at 16.1%, while the Greens and Bloc Quebecois remain stable at 9.9% and 9.4%, respectively.

The Conservatives had another bad two-week period. They've dropped in every part of the country, losing two seats in British Columbia and three in Ontario. Their biggest support drop was in Ontario, where they lost 0.9 points and are down to 36.4%. They also lost 0.8 points in the Prairies and 0.7 points in British Columbia. They lost 0.2 points in the North and 0.1 points in Alberta, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The drops in BC and Ontario hurt them.

The Liberals show decent growth, but it isn't huge. They gain one seat in British Columbia, three in Ontario, and one in Atlantic Canada. Their biggest gain is in Ontario, with 0.7 points. They are now at 36.1%, only 0.3 points behind the Tories. They also gained 0.3 points in British Columbia and 0.2 points in the Prairies, Atlantic Canada, and the North. They are up 0.1 in Quebec and stable in Alberta.

The NDP was up and down, depending on the part of the country. They gained one seat in British Columbia but lost another in Atlantic Canada. They showed gains in the Prairies (0.5 points) and British Columbia (0.1 points), but losses in Alberta (0.1), the North (0.1), Quebec (0.3), and Atlantic Canada (0.4). They were stable in Ontario, which is actually good news for them. They need to keep up their support in that province.

The Bloc gained 0.1 points in Quebec, and are at 38.1%. The gap between them and the Liberals is 13.1 points.

The Greens showed gains of 0.2 points in Atlantic Canada and 0.1 points in the North and Quebec, and losses of 0.1 points in Ontario and 0.2 points in Alberta. They had no movement in British Columbia and the Prairies.

There is no silver lining in this projection update for the Conservatives. With the way the polls are going for them in British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario, they stand to drop well below 130 seats in the coming weeks.

The NDP is going nowhere fast, and seems to be stuck. The Bloc is steady, which at their level of support is good.

The Liberals have a lot to be happy about, but they aren't gaining to the extent that the Conservatives are losing. That could be a problem, as the NDP, Bloc, and Greens take some of the spoils.


  1. So now the gap between the Conservatives and Liberal+NDP is just 131 to 127. For Harper the minute hand on the doomsday clock keeps getting closer and closer to midnight!

  2. eric

    Interesting analysis

    Is the seat loss for cons in Atlantic Canada Gail Shea's

  3. Hey Kevin its an NDP seat the Liberals gain in Atlantic Canada.

  4. I think we should stop speculating about individual seats - what Eric is doing is a broad extrapolation.

  5. DL if your "coalition" thinking represents the position of the NDP and the LPC please don't be upset when in the next federal election the CPC runs against the coalition.

  6. Shadow,
    What did yoy mean when you said anyhing less than treason is supporting our troops?

  7. If the Conservatives run against the coalition, and the Liberals win anyway (without committing either way), would that make a coalition legitimate in the eyes of the Conservatives?

  8. A "coalition" is when two or more parties govern together and share cabinet portfolios. Any other arrangement (of which there are many)is NOT a coalition.

    I sincerely hope that the Tories do try to run their next election campaign as an "us or a coalition" choice - that way any result other than a Conservative majority will be seen as a mandate for the non-Conservative parties to get together and depose the dictator.

  9. DL if the Tories run against a coalition and the opposition DENIES it that is NOT the same thing as the coalition winning a mandate.

    The only way for the coalition to gain a mandate is for Michael Ignatieff to announce that he is open to various governing arrangements, including but not limited to a coalition or an accord.

  10. Hi 49 steps. My comment was an observation about the state of politics today.

    I keep hearing that EVERYONE supports the troops. But that's not really true.

    There are different degrees of support. It can't just be that so long as you're not committing treason you're out there supporting the troops. Its not an either-or thing.

    Wanting to reduce the size of the military, wanting to stop military funding, attacking the defence ministry and the generals, undermining the mission, trying to make peace with the enemy, and creating a phoney scandal are not ways to show your support of the troops.

    Its time to be honest. The anti-war left doesn't support the troops.

    Do they want to see them hurt? Of course not.

    Is that the same thing as supporting them? No.

  11. Shadow,
    Do not agree with you.

    List of things I would like to say, but you don't seem to like dissent.

    Agree to diagree, and let's leave it at that.

  12. I have to agree with DL here. Trends seem to indicate that the CRAP will do rather poorly.

    That said Shadows continual use of "talking points" and his blinkered refusal to see what the public does is becoming boring.

    "Coalition" is the biggest non-event around. If the Tories do try and run on that they can expect flak from all the other parties.

  13. Shadow,
    "The anti war left doesn't support the troops"

    Can you support any validity to that claim.

    Can you say that 100% of the anti war left does not support the troops?

    Do you have to be left to be anti war?

    Throwing the labels around doesn't seem to me to add anything to thoughtful debate.

  14. 49 steps there are no two ways about it.

    Supporting the troops means supporting the mission in Afghanistan.

    The left wing parties don't.


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