Wednesday, February 17, 2010

New Léger Poll: 38% BQ, 27% LPC

Léger Marketing has released a new Quebec poll, inquiring into federal and provincial voting intentions. I'll have a post up about the provincial results within the next few days.Not too many surprises, but these polls are fun because they have breakdowns for Montreal and Quebec City.

Compared to Léger's poll in mid-January, the Bloc is down two points to 38%. They are still well ahead of the Liberals, however, who are at 27% (a gain of four points). The Conservatives are down one point to 16%, while the NDP is down three to 12%.

The Bloc dominates francophone voters, with 46% support among this demographic. The Liberals come second, at 21%, while the Conservatives are third at 15%. Among non-francophones, the Liberals dominate with 53%. The Conservatives follow with 18% and the NDP is at 12%.

In and around Montreal, the Bloc leads with 36%. Most of that support comes from the eastern part of the island and north and south of it. The Liberals are at 31%, and the NDP is at 15%, demonstrating Thomas Mulcair does have a chance to keep his seat.

In Quebec City, the Conservatives poll surprisingly high, with 32%. That is a good result for them, meaning they could be able to keep all of their seats around the Vieille Capitale. The Bloc will make a fight of it, though, with 29%. Considering the MOE, the parties are neck-and-neck. The Liberals are at 19%.

The Bloc is well ahead in the "rest of Quebec", with 43%. The Liberals follow with 26%. The Conservatives are at 15%, low for them. This indicates that while their bridgehead around the capital is safe, the seats on the periphery and in the Outaouais may not be.

The Bloc would win 51 seats with this poll, taking advantage of the weakness of the Conservatives outside of Quebec City. The Liberals win 17 seats, taking a couple on the island and perhaps in the Outaouais or Montérégie. The Conservatives are reduced to six seats, while the NDP keeps Outremont.

This only serves to further confirm the new reality in Quebec: the Bloc is safe, the Liberals are strong, and the Tories are not.


  1. I'm happy with these results. I don't expect the Liberals to charge back up to 30+, but 25+ is certainly good news. Combined with a low Conservative vote, the Liberals have a shot at more seats outside of Montreal - I'm thinking Brome-Missisquoi, Compton-Standstead, some Gaspesie ridings, obviously Pontiac, etc.

    Just need to cut down that Dipper vote some, and its smooth sailing.

  2. Eric have you seen this?

    Interesting method.

  3. Volkov, from a Liberal perspective, I'm not sure why you think it would be a good thing for the NDP vote to go down in Quebec. Almost all the NDP vote in Quebec is from ex-BQ supporters. If NDP support goes up it tends to come from the BQ and help Liberals win marginal BQ held seats. If the NDP vote goes down in Quebec most of those people go back to the BQ and more seats move out of reach for the Liberals.

  4. DL,

    Well, thats why I said "some." I'm thinking '06 levels, or about 7-10%.

    I say this because there is few ridings where ex-Bloquistes rushing back from the NDP will change the dynamics a terrible amount. I can only think of Gatineau and Jeanne-Le-Ber, where the NDP vote has risen to the point where if it stays there, it will allow the Liberals an easier ride over the Bloc.

    Cut down the NDP's vote a couple points though, and you're still good for those ridings. But, it affects ridings such as Outremont, Brome-Missisquoi, and one other I can't nail down in my mind at the moment, where the vote for the NDP going down would be to the benefit of the Liberals.

  5. I don't think you can generalize that most NDP support in Quebec is ex-Bloc; sure, it makes ideological sense, but voters with a weak sense of ideology might feel otherwise.
    My sense is that much of the NDP vote in Quebec is a "none of the above" vote. That's why the Greens do worse in Quebec polling than elsewhere-- because the NDP steals the "I don't like the main parties" vote, since the NDP are only competitive in one or two ridings.

    You have to remember that until the quite recently, the NDP were nowhere in Quebec. They got 7% of the vote in Quebec in 2006, and 2%(!) in 2000. It tells you most of their support in Quebec are recent converts, and likely their loyalty is weak. In the past decade, the most loyal voters have been Bloquistes, while the Liberals and Conservatives are the ones who have shed lots of support at certain times during this decade at some point or another in Quebec, for well-known reasons. So I expect that there are at least as many former Lib/Con supporters as former Bloc supporters in the NDP camp right now.

  6. My understanding is that NDP's Quebec growth over the last few years has been from francophones.

    Its a reasonable assumption to assume that they're taking the left, labour base of the BQ.

    But unless someone actually did some polling its nothing more than an assumption.

  7. The NDP also gained ground from 2000 to 2008 because it went from being led by a unilingual anglophone MacDonough to being led by the very bilingual Jack Layton who grew up in Montreal. Plus polls how that Layton is the most popular federal leader in Quebec. The other thing is that back in 2000 and even in '04 and '06 the NDP essentially had no campaign in Quebec at all and ran no ads and had no organizers. It was only in 2008 that they started making major ad buys in Montreal and putting major resources into certain ridings. If you don't ask people for their votes, you can't expect people to give them to you.

    Its true that the NDP being a factor in Quebec is relatively recent - but you could say the same about the Tories who were in single digits in Quebec before the 2006 election.

  8. That's true; the NDP in the late 90s in Quebec versus now is night and day. I remember in 1997, no less than two of my university friends ran for the NDP in Quebec ridings that they had never visited, just so that they would have *someone* on the ballot. Layton has put a lot of money and effort into Quebec (and has so far received only limited rewards).

    My only point is that I don't think the NDP has taken most of its new Quebec support from the Bloc. The Bloc got almost 40% of the vote in 2000 and are currently at almost the same level. The Liberals got 44% of the vote in 2000 and are only polling 27% today. From that statistic alone, it's reasonable to infer that most of the NDP's upswing in Quebec has been at the expense of the Liberals.
    You can also see that where the NDP are most competitive in Quebec are places where the Liberals used to compile huge majorities: Outremont, NDG, Jeanne-LeBer, etc. Also, have you noticed that the Bloc rarely criticizes the NDP? It's because they are competing for federalist votes from the Liberals much more than they are competing for left-wing votes from the Bloc.


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