Tuesday, February 16, 2010

New AR Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid has a new poll out, showing a little Conservative strength.However, it must be pointed out that compared to Angus-Reid's January 25-26 poll, not much has changed. Both the Conservatives and Liberals have gained one point, pushing each up to 34% and 30%, respectively. The NDP is down one point o 18%, and the Greens are up one point to 8%.

The regional results don't show much movement either. The Conservatives gain one point in Ontario and are at 37%. The Liberals remain stable at 35%, and the NDP drops two to 17%.

In Quebec, the Bloc drops seven points to 35%, but everyone else is within the MOE. The Conservatives gain three points and are at 14%, while the Liberals and NDP remain stable at 28% and 14%, respectively.

There is bigger movement in the smaller regions, but a lot of that can be chalked up to the small sample size. For example, the Conservatives are up eight points in Alberta and down 11 in the Prairies. The Liberals are up 10 points in the Prairies and 13 in Atlantic Canada. And the NDP is down 14 points in Atlantic Canada.

What those smaller regionals do show is that in Alberta, the Conservatives are (of course) safe but the Liberals are surprisingly strong. In the Prairies, the Conservatives are also well ahead but the Liberals and NDP have been fighting it out for second, with a slight edge to the NDP. And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have moved back in front by a wide margin.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 127
Liberals - 100
Bloc Quebecois - 49
New Democrats - 32

Conservative strength comes, as usual, out west, where they win 66 seats. But they also take 49 in Ontario. However, they are reduced to only five in Quebec.

The Liberals take 43 seats in Ontario, 23 in Atlantic Canada, and 19 in Quebec. Fifteen seats come in the west and north.

The NDP takes most of its seats in British Columbia (11) and Ontario (14).

The Bloc remains well ahead in Quebec, with 49 seats. They took full advantage of the Conservative drop.

This poll also asked people what kind of government they preferred. Putting the majority and minority results together, we get 38% of Canadians preferring a Liberal government and 35% of Canadians preferring a Conservative government. The Liberal result is split down the middle (19-19) between minority and majority, while 26% of Canadians want a Conservative majority to 9% who want a minority.

What this says is that Conservative supporters want their party to win a majority, while the Liberals have room to grow among non-supporters.