Monday, February 22, 2010

Projection Update: 129 CPC, 99 LPC, 51 BQ, 29 NDP

A new projection update puts the Conservatives down two seats, the Liberals up two, the Bloc up one, and the NDP down one. It also puts the Liberals in front of the Conservatives in Ontario.The Conservatives drop 0.4 points nationally, and are now at 33.8%. The Liberals gain 0.2 points and are now at 29.3%. The NDP gain 0.1 points, and are now at 16.2%. The Bloc and Greens are steady at 9.4% and 9.9%, respectively.

With one small exception, this was a uniformly bad 10 days for the Conservatives. They lost a seat in Alberta, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, though they did gain one in British Columbia. They lost 0.7 points in Quebec (down to 17.5%), 0.6 in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia, 0.4 points in Alberta, 0.3 points in the Prairies and Ontario, and 0.1 points in the North.

The Liberals, on the other hand, had a uniformly good, if modest, period. They gained a seat in Alberta and Atlantic Canada. They're up 0.4 points in Atlantic Canada, 0.3 points in British Columbia, 0.2 points in Alberta and Quebec, and 0.1 points in the Prairies, Ontario, and the North. That small gain in Ontario puts them at 36.2%, a tiny bit ahead of the Conservatives.

The NDP, as usual, are relatively stable. They did lose a seat, however, in British Columbia. They gained 0.1 points in Quebec (11.2%), the North, and BC, were stable in the Prairies and Ontario, lost 0.1 points in Alberta, and 0.2 points in Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc lost 0.1 points in Quebec, but nevertheless gained a seat thanks to the large Tory drop. They now stand at 51 seats and 38%.

The Greens were stable in the West and North, but gained 0.4 points in Quebec, 0.3 points in Atlantic Canada, and 0.1 points in Ontario.

With 129 seats, the Conservatives would need the support of one of the other parties to get legislation passed. A combination of Liberal and NDP seats is still one short of a plurality, but that means if the trend continues the classification will fall to an Unstable Minority.