Thursday, August 16, 2012

Liberals drop as PQ majority increases

A new poll by CROP for La Presse today showed that the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec are generally where other pollsters have recently pegged them to be. But with a drop in support in Montreal, the Liberals have taken a hit.

The Parti Québécois has held steady, with a tiny 0.1 point drop to 36% in the projection. The Liberals, however, are down 1.2 points to 31.1%. The result is a net five seats swinging from the Liberals to the PQ, giving the PQ 70 seats to 37 for the Liberals.

The CAQ is unchanged at 23.2% and 16 seats, while Québec Solidaire is up 0.3 points to 5.9%. They are still projected to win two seats.

The Greens are up 0.2 points to 1.8% and Option Nationale is up 0.4 points to 0.9%.

The PQ's ranges have been nudged upwards, further decreasing the chances of a Liberal plurality. With between 34.5% and 37.5% support, the PQ can win between 51 and 78 seats. The Liberals, with between 28.6% and 33.6% support, can only win between 28 and 54 seats.

The CAQ appears to be stuck in third, with between 20.2% and 26.2% support and between 10 and 27 seats. At the very least, however, François Legault is sure to see his party's representation in the National Assembly grow.

The Liberals slipped most dramatically on the island of Montreal and among non-francophone voters. They are down 3.8 points on the island to 38.5%, decreasing their seat haul by three to 17. The PQ is up 0.9 points to 31.1% and three seats to nine, while the CAQ has moved back into third place. They jumped three points to 13.7%, putting them narrowly ahead of Québec Solidaire, which sits at 12% support.

Among non-francophones, who mostly live on the island of Montreal, the Liberals are down 3.5 points to 66.4%. The CAQ increased their support among this electorate by 2.8 points to 12.7%. They are still a long ways from challenging the Liberals among the anglophone population, but this may be the first sign that the CAQ's efforts are paying off.

The Parti Québécois made its two other seat gains in the Montreal suburbs, thanks to a 0.9-point drop by the Liberals to only 27.4%. The PQ did slip 0.4 points to 38.4%, however. The CAQ was also down, falling 0.2 points to 25.6%. But they are ahead of the Liberals in the region in the unadjusted poll average.

The Liberals are comfortably in front in Quebec City, however, as the CAQ dropped 3.1 points to 30.5%. The Liberals were down 0.9 points to 35.2%, while the PQ was up 2.7 points to 26%.
CROP was last in the field Aug. 4-8, and since then the PQ has picked up two points to lead with 34%. The Liberals were down two points to 27% while the CAQ was up four points to 25%, a statistically significant increase.

Québec Solidaire slid one point to 7%, while the Greens and Option Nationale were unchanged at 3% and 2%, respectively.

The Parti Québécois holds the lead among francophones (where there have been no significant shifts in support) and in and around Montreal, where they have 33% support to 28% for the Liberals. There is a three-way race in Quebec City in CROP's polling, and the PQ has the advantage in the rest of Quebec with 36% to the CAQ's 26%.

The Liberals dropped two points to 57% among non-francophones, but they still hold a wide lead. The CAQ picked up 12 points to hit 20%. The margin of error is quite large due to the sample being so small, but the increase in support for the CAQ among this electorate does not appear to be noise.

Riding polls

Segma Recherche and Le Quotidien continue to treat us to riding polls for the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region, this time looking at Dubuc. This riding is actually an interesting one, as it is one of the closer races in the region and is a riding that should swing from the Liberals to the PQ. The poll gives the PQ 44% to the Liberals' 32% and the CAQ's 18%, virtually identical to what the projection had for the riding yesterday. But the projection was slightly under-estimating CAQ support in Dubuc, so the poll was added. Le Quotidien is supposed to publish the results of polling in Roberval and Jonquière tomorrow. The projection gives both of these ridings to the Parti Québécois by a wide margin.


  1. Out of curiosity, what kind of seat distribution would the model give based solely off of the latest CROP poll?

  2. How did the CAQ drop so much in Quebec City?

    1. It's simple. Some voters just changed their mind.

    2. Variance. The margin of error for the poll is 3.3%, and that's with a sample size of 1000; given that of that number, maybe 10% were from Quebec city, and you get to a margin of error of at least, what, 8%?

      I mean, there's always the possibility they actually did drop that much, but with sample sizes that small, a 3% drop in a single poll is relaly nothing to be worried about for the CAQ.

  3. Well, it certainly show a trend, still the question is why... Nothing major happen, well except some uninteresting shift of attention on the crucifix of the national assembly. Uninteresting as while they are talking about it, they don't talk about more pressing issue.

    It look like more there is time with nothing happening, more the PQ get up in polls. Debate are getting near. Look like Marois will be lucky and start with an edge, a cushion, as she is clearly not the strongest debater.

    In short, why are people suddenly shifting away from Liberals? Or do we see a lot of noise? Like potential voter for Liberals who decide to think about it and thus are now uncertain (and get proportionally attribute to everyone)or who refuse to answer pollster?

  4. I don't understand these riding polls for the most part. Why bother polling ridings in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region that have voted PQ since the 70s? They are about the closest things to PQ strongholds available. It would be like polling Westmount or D'Arcy-McGee.

    Polls for ridings in the suburbs of Montréal, north and south, would be much more interesting. Of course we're not in any position to force whoever orders these polls to do them there, but we can wonder what's the point?

    1. The local newspaper ordered them in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region. It is understandable they would want the local coverage.

  5. In the last Léger-QMI poll, CAQ support is 27%, ahead of your "high" projection... A lag?

  6. Newest Léger poll has CAQ within 1 point of PLQ, and PQ not as high as CROP showed.

    Interesting. I honestly think the debates could vault the CAQ to second, possibly first.


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