Saturday, August 25, 2012

Projection updated, PQ moves back into lead

With Léger Marketing's new poll for Le Journal de Montréal out this morning, I have updated the projection. The result is a swing back to the Parti Québécois, who are now once again in a position to win a majority government. Though there is enough uncertainty that a minority is still a distinct possibility - as is a second-place finish by the Coalition Avenir Québec.

The Forum poll from earlier this week was either capturing a momentary surge in Liberal support due to the Sunday debate or was completely out in left field. We cannot know for certain, but considering what other polls have shown we have to conclude that it was probably an outlier. Léger has indicated a relatively consistent trendline for all of the parties since their last survey, and riding polls released during the course of the week suggested no bump in Liberal support.

The next poll by CROP will likely settle things definitively. I will do a more thorough analysis of the Léger poll and the changes in the projection (along with any other polls that emerge) on Monday.