Saturday, August 25, 2012

Projection updated, PQ moves back into lead

With Léger Marketing's new poll for Le Journal de Montréal out this morning, I have updated the projection. The result is a swing back to the Parti Québécois, who are now once again in a position to win a majority government. Though there is enough uncertainty that a minority is still a distinct possibility - as is a second-place finish by the Coalition Avenir Québec.

The Forum poll from earlier this week was either capturing a momentary surge in Liberal support due to the Sunday debate or was completely out in left field. We cannot know for certain, but considering what other polls have shown we have to conclude that it was probably an outlier. Léger has indicated a relatively consistent trendline for all of the parties since their last survey, and riding polls released during the course of the week suggested no bump in Liberal support.

The next poll by CROP will likely settle things definitively. I will do a more thorough analysis of the Léger poll and the changes in the projection (along with any other polls that emerge) on Monday.

33 comments:

  1. Theirs is an online poll. I don't put much stock into it.

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  2. Léger polls saw the NDP wave coming on the Province. The Forum research poll is so out of the blue that I wonder how is sample is looking like. Liberals need to keep the english voters on their side to avoid what happened during the last federal campain. I guess they will succeed this time. A poll like the Forum Research one surely helped it.

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    1. Surely a poll showing the PQ is likely to win will do a lot more to motivate Anglos to go out and vote for the PLQ come September 4th. Plus this Léger & Léger survey doesn,t take into account Mme Marois'recent foot in the mouth concerning RIPs and the fact that she so belatedly released the PQ budget...
      Thérèse

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    2. Actually it does, since the poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday.

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    3. Surely any sane Anglo would think to vote strategically by supporting the Coalition. The Liberals are finished.

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  3. No amount of anglo support for PLQ can or will make up for the PLQ's dismal (18%!) support among francophone voters -- it's time to put the undertaker on standby.

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  4. Léger is the best pollster there is IMO.

    I guess we can expect CROP soon

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  5. Bonjour Éric,

    Thanks for your very interesting website. I'm certainly more at ease with numbers than with headlines. The latter only give you a qualitative, momentary, often polarized, and sometimes even incorrect read of the situation, particularly so in this race. Thanks for bringing a no-nonsense data-driven objective perspective on this whole thing.

    Stéphane

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  6. Bonjour Éric,

    Thanks for bringing a no-nonsense data-driven objective perspective to this election. Before I discovered your website, I was drowning in a cacophony of contradicting headlines.

    Stéphane

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  7. The one big outlier in Forum Research survey was Québec Solidaire's 10% of so, which took off seats from the PQ. My guess? FR put too much stock on Montreal.

    What explains the huge gap between the maximum no. of seats and the projected no. of seats for the PLQ -- especially considering the very low gap between the minimum no. of seats and the maximum no. of seats? I understand that the PLQ has, with those numbers, locked up at least 18 ridings in Montreal (and probably 2 in the Gatineau area -- who would probably have been locked up regardless), but is that the only explanation? Am I missing some other ridings that are considered absolute PLQ locks at this point?

    M.D.

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  8. Yes, the anglos can't do much if they're especially concentrated in small amount of Montreal ridings that are already safe Liberal to begin with.

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  9. What I'm seeing is indecision. We won't know until the votes are counted.

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  10. I think that the Leger poll showing CAQ overtaking the PLQ - even if by just one point - could have a big psychological impact and could start to shake loose a lot of soft PLQ votes and move them to the CAQ setting up a close PQ/CAQ contest. Remember how in last year's federal election, the NDP was pretty stagnant outside of Quebec for the first half of the campaign and then all it took was one or two polls showing the NDP overtaking the Liberals nationally on the strength of rising support in Quebec and the next thing we knew Liberal voters across English Canada instantly dropped the LPC like a hot potato and went NDP. If people start to see the CAQ as the party most able to stop Marois - what if the next poll says PQ 33, CAQ 31, PLQ 24???

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    1. You could be right, but it's worth recalling that the CAQ is a right wing party and I think that limits their potential in Quebec.

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    2. That was my thought, too. We'll have to see what the impact is if CAQ is now seen as the way for moderates to stop PQ.

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    3. Or people could move back to the PLQ seeing that the PQ is about to take power again. This would decrease CAQ support.

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    4. "NDP was pretty stagnant outside of Quebec for the first half of the campaign and then all it took was one or two polls showing the NDP overtaking the Liberals nationally on the strength of rising support in Quebec and the next thing we knew Liberal voters across English Canada instantly dropped the LPC like a hot potato and went NDP"

      I wonder if it was the polls that did this, or was it that the NDP message started to resonate? or perhaps it was the media started covering the NDP differently seeing the surge in Quebec?

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  11. Eric, I don't get why your numbers are slightly different from Léger Marketing's new poll. Could you please explain the methodology at work (or provide a link)?

    #2158007

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    1. The projection is based on a weighted and adjusted average of all polls, not just the most recent one.

      More here: http://www.threehundredeight.com/2011/03/threehundredeights-weighting-system.html

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    2. Thanks for the information. Is it possible to see what numbers say without Forum's poll?

      #2158007

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  12. Could someone tell me how the PQ is up 4% with the non-francophones (CAQ -5%)?

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  13. Here is Mr. Léger's response on that very issue: http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/356455/la-precision-des-sondages-internet

    Raymond Labelle.

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  14. Mr. Charest put the survey in question. And, I do not know if this happens often, Mr. Léger replied publicly. Here is the article on the reply: http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357778/leger-defend-ses-resultats-face-aux-attaques-de-charest

    Raymond Labelle

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  15. My gut says that the Leger poll is bang on. The Forum poll just doesn't make sense with Jean Charest loosing his own riding in local polls.

    The interesting thing is that the CAQ and QS are second choice of 20% of the electorate. With the new momentum Leger gives to both the CAQ and QS, that spells a challenge to the PQ. This poll shows that the CAQ and even the QS could show a late campaign surge. It's a threeway race, and potentially a four-way race.

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  16. In any case, this election could potentially result in the last majority government for Quebec. The arrival of the NDP in the next election would split the federalist and anglophone vote even more, as if the PLQ-CAQ vote split isn't enough. Also, the NDP could probably take those soft PQ voters who wanted a left-wing alternative without the sovereignty label attached to it. This can ensure that Quebec will no longer have a majority government. So enjoy your last majority government, Quebec, while you still can.

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  17. I hate to say it, but the Liberals have to play the scare card to win. Applying Bill 101to fierms with 10 to 50 employees will spark a new and devastating exodus of PMEs. Applying Bill 101 to CEGEPs will spark another exodus. The housing market will suffer. Referendum talk will jack up the cost of selling bonds by injecting an uncertainty factor. More conflict is in store. It will not be fun. I know it could provoke a backlash, but they have nothing to lose ...

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    1. federalists have cried wolf repeatedly over the chaos provoked by the prospect of referendum talk. ''elect the pq and the sky will fall''. you can only cry wolf so often.

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    2. They could lose my vote by going completely over the top.

      Those prone to scare tactics don't need the Liberals scaring them. All they have to do is listen to Marois.

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  18. while talk of language enforcement, restricting religious symbols and the ugly identity politics the pq is engaging in is cause for concern; I for one do not believe that the pq governs in this manner and is pandering for votes. I have reason to believe they will not engage in this agenda once in power, that is an assumption and people are free to believe what they want. But don't give me this referendum chaos talk and exodus, it sounds like a broken record.

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  19. Voted yesterday (Sunday) morning in Hull, quite a few people (older mostly).

    The riding is traditional Liberal red, albeit the NPD took it away from the Liberal in the last election.

    For myself, I voted CAQ - first time in 29 years (provincial or federal level) that I did not vote Liberal.

    Idem for several friends and work colleagues.
    I expect the next poll to reflect a shift to the CAQ and a decrease in support for the PQ while the Liberals will hold steady.

    There are not enough anglophone votes outside of Montreal (and allophones for that matter) to make a significant difference for the Liberals traditional strongholds.

    Will be very interesting to analyze the next CROP poll.

    Eric, I gather that you will update your projections today?

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    1. Yes, indeed. I upped the graphics for this campaign, which take longer to produce, and I'm also trying to co-ordinate my updates with those for L'actualité. The result is my updates are usually pushed to the afternoon, rather than the morning.

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  20. Your blog is the blog I follow for Quebec polling numbers. Congratulations on your work. Do you plan to have the numbers from over the weekend updated today? The two polls that are out the Liberals in 3rd place - I suspect - will create some dramatic moves in the seat projections.

    Hard to know what to do with the CAQ in seat projections where they didn't exist the last itme around.

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