Thursday, July 30, 2009

AR Regional Polling Results - Revealed!

EKOS and Angus-Reid are quite good at posting their polling data quickly (unlike other polling firms), and I'm appreciative of that. Angus-Reid has now posted the details of the poll I alluded to earlier today.

The poll, taken between July 27 and July 28, was very close to the EKOS poll at the national level but has some significant variations at the regional level.

The Liberals lead in Ontario (41% to 35%) and Atlantic Canada (37% to 31%). The Ontario result is better (by two points) than EKOS, but the Atlantic result is slightly worse. At 23%, the Liberals aren't as strong in British Columbia. Their 34% in Quebec is better, however. They lead the Conservatives among females by seven points, the NDP among 18 to 34 year olds by seven points, and are tied with the Tories at 34% among 35-54 year olds.

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia (36% to 25% NDP), Alberta (66% to 17%), and the Prairies (52% to 27%). Their 13% in Quebec is much worse than EKOS, but 31% in Atlantic Canada is better. They lead the Liberals among males by 5 points and 55+ year olds by 5 points as well.

The NDP has a decent result in British Columbia (25%) and Atlantic Canada (28%), but needs to do better than the 13% in the Prairies, 15% in Ontario, and 9% in Quebec.

The Bloc, at 38%, is doing well in Quebec. The Greens did not have any strong results except in British Columbia, with 12%.

As to whether Canadians are satisfied with how the government has been dealing with the economic crisis, 43% say they are while 48% say they aren't. And as to whether they trust the party leaders to help the economy recover, Harper is trusted by 41% and distrusted by 40%, better than Ignatieff's 36% to 52% split.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 119
Liberals - 115
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 24

Despite their slim lead, the Liberals aren't strong enough in the West in this poll to form government. The Tories take 70 seats in the West, leaving only 14 for the Liberals.

As it is getting late in the morning and I have other work to do, I will leave the projection update to tomorrow.