Saturday, July 11, 2009

Manitoba Poll

The Winnipeg Free Press is reporting on a new poll taken in Manitoba only - quite the rarity.

The poll was taken throughout the month of June (from the 8th to the 25th), and involved 1,000 respondents. Unfortunately, since my polling model puts Saskatchewan and Manitoba together, I can't include this poll.

The result:

Conservatives - 44% (down 5 points from the October election)
Liberals - 26% (up 7 points)
New Democrats - 21% (down 3 points)

The poll is also broken down into the city of Winnipeg. There, the Tories have 36%, down seven points from the election. The Liberals are at 32%, up nine points. The NDP dropped one point to 26% in the city, with the Greens also losing one point to stand at 5%.

Interesting poll about an oft-ignored region.


  1. What I find most interesting is looking at the trends in other polls. Most other polls recently have also asked other questions. Harper VS Iggy. What issues matter. So on and so forth. What I've started to notice is that Tory support in the "Prairies" (IE Saskatchewan and Manitoba) is far more solid than Tory support in Alberta.

  2. This is consistent as far as I can tell with other Prairie polling. It wouldn't move your numbers much.

  3. The Manitoba poll was exclusive to that province and it's larger sample size and smaller error margin suggests trouble for the tories. Liberals have gained almost 10% in Winnipeg where they have had success in the past. I think they could add 2-3 seats in the province if they add just 1% to this result.


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