Thursday, July 16, 2009

Projection Update: Conservatives by Seven

The projection has been updated, and there have been some significant changes.

In the short-term projection, the Conservatives and Liberals have traded four seats, bringing the Conservatives up to 119 and in the lead, and the Liberals down to 114. The New Democrats have also lost two seats and the Bloc has gained two seats. The Conservatives have gained one point in the national vote and the Greens have gained 0.5 points. The Liberals have lost 0.9 points, and the NDP has lost 0.6.

The long-term projection has also changed. The Conservatives have gained three seats. Two of them come in Ontario and one comes in Quebec. The Liberals have lost three seats, two of them in Ontario and one in Quebec as well. The NDP and Bloc have remained steady at 24 and 49 seats, respectively. In terms of the national vote, the Conservatives have gained 0.3 points and the Liberals have lost 0.3 points. The Liberal lead now stands at a mere 0.4 points.

Regionally, the Conservatives have gained 0.4 points in British Columbia, 0.5 in Alberta, and 0.3 in Ontario. The Liberals have gained 0.4 points in British Columbia and 0.4 in Atlantic Canada, but have lost 0.4 points in the Prairies, 0.3 in Ontario, and 0.3 in Quebec. The NDP has seen a big loss of 0.7 points in British Columbia and the Greens have dropped 0.3 in Atlantic Canada.

So, what can we take from this? Despite all the bad press, the Conservatives have had a good week. They've taken the lead in the last-five-poll average, and have moved back into government in the projection. The Liberals have had a bad week, dropping back in both projections. The NDP has also seen some problems, while the Greens and Bloc have remained relatively stable.

It is becoming difficult to predict polling results before they are made available. I would've expected a Tory drop because of what happened at the G8, but instead the EKOS daily breakdown showed no major movement for either party. It is quite possible we could end the summer with the Liberals in a precarious position - and that could mean no election until at least the spring of 2010.

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