Monday, July 27, 2009

New Ipsos-Reid Ontario Poll

Ipsos-Reid has released a new Ontario provincial poll. It was taken between July 21 and July 23 and involved 706 decided voters. Now, provincial polls don't play a role in my model and I don't track Ontario provincial politics, but I thought it would be an interesting tidbit nevertheless.

Here are the results:

Liberals - 45%
Progressive Conservatives - 31%
New Democrats - 12%
Greens - 11%

This shows that, so far, Tim Hudak hasn't managed to improve the score for the PCs. They had 31.6% support in the 2007 election, while Dalton McGuinty had 42.3%. The NDP is down as well, from 16.8%. One wonders if this is part of the problem for the NDP in Ontario at the federal level. The Greens had 8% during the election, so they are up as well.

I don't follow Ontario politics very well, but my general understanding of it is that while McGuinty is considered the best man for the job, he isn't exactly a popular figure. While Michael Ignatieff would love to be at 45% in the province, I'm not sure if a closer alliance with the Ontario Premier would help him get there. Now, I know that in Ontario, along with some of the other provinces, the leader of a party isn't always close to their federal counterpart. Danny Williams in Newfoundland & Labrador and Jean Charest in Quebec are good examples of that. But, it wouldn't hurt for Ignatieff to get closer to McGuinty.

Stephen Harper, on the other hand, looks to have nothing to gain from Hudak, and Jack Layton doesn't need to be seen with Andrea Horwath to help his cause.

The poll was broken down regionally as well. The Liberals lead in every region, with very little variation (49% in Northern Ontario and 42% in Central Ontario are the high and low points). Things are relatively consistent for the PCs as well, though they are doing best in Central Ontario (34%) and worst in Northern Ontario (24%). The NDP's peaks and valleys are in Southwest Ontario (16%) and Eastern Ontario (11%). The Greens are doing best in Toronto and Central Ontario (12%) and worst in the Southwest (8%).

The Liberals lead in the 18 to 34 and 35 to 54 age demographics, but are tied with the PCs among those aged 55 or older. The Greens surpass the NDP among the youngest set of voters, and PC support among women is quite low (28%).

The approval rating, however, is not so glowing for the Premier. Only 44% of Ontarians say he is doing a good job while 49% say he isn't. However, as the opposition is divided among three competitive parties, it shouldn't be a cause for concern.

In the federal context it will be interesting to keep an eye on the provincial race, since the support levels aren't significantly different.


  1. Interesting poll.

    About what I expected, if not a slighlty larger bump for Hudak. But he, Hudak, is an idealog and that is the way most people see him. Personally, I think McGuinty is safe in the next election if the Ontario Libs don't screw up or get embroiled in a major scandal.

    We are coming out of the recession and McGuinty along with many other Premiers (and US Governors for that matter) have taken most of the ire from the voters in public opinion polls.

    Most PCs I've discussed this topic with will tell you that Moderate PCs don't win in modern Ontario citing Eves and Tory as their evidence. They also cite the Harris victories as models on how to return to majority. I would disagree on the grounds that the Harris election/defeat of Rae was very very unique. And that Harris was re-elected in good economic times. Incumbents will always have that advantage particularly when voters have Premier Bob Rae still in their recent memories.

    What will be very interesting to see, is the succession plan that is laid in place after the next election for the Ontario Liberals. There is a lot of talent in the party, but also a lot of factions.

  2. McGunity is clearly the most detested of the leaders.

    Horwath, however, is NDP. And Hudak, is a Harris clone.

    While people detest McGunity, they are frightened of Horwath and Hudak.


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