Monday, July 27, 2009

New Ipsos-Reid Ontario Poll

Ipsos-Reid has released a new Ontario provincial poll. It was taken between July 21 and July 23 and involved 706 decided voters. Now, provincial polls don't play a role in my model and I don't track Ontario provincial politics, but I thought it would be an interesting tidbit nevertheless.

Here are the results:

Liberals - 45%
Progressive Conservatives - 31%
New Democrats - 12%
Greens - 11%

This shows that, so far, Tim Hudak hasn't managed to improve the score for the PCs. They had 31.6% support in the 2007 election, while Dalton McGuinty had 42.3%. The NDP is down as well, from 16.8%. One wonders if this is part of the problem for the NDP in Ontario at the federal level. The Greens had 8% during the election, so they are up as well.

I don't follow Ontario politics very well, but my general understanding of it is that while McGuinty is considered the best man for the job, he isn't exactly a popular figure. While Michael Ignatieff would love to be at 45% in the province, I'm not sure if a closer alliance with the Ontario Premier would help him get there. Now, I know that in Ontario, along with some of the other provinces, the leader of a party isn't always close to their federal counterpart. Danny Williams in Newfoundland & Labrador and Jean Charest in Quebec are good examples of that. But, it wouldn't hurt for Ignatieff to get closer to McGuinty.

Stephen Harper, on the other hand, looks to have nothing to gain from Hudak, and Jack Layton doesn't need to be seen with Andrea Horwath to help his cause.

The poll was broken down regionally as well. The Liberals lead in every region, with very little variation (49% in Northern Ontario and 42% in Central Ontario are the high and low points). Things are relatively consistent for the PCs as well, though they are doing best in Central Ontario (34%) and worst in Northern Ontario (24%). The NDP's peaks and valleys are in Southwest Ontario (16%) and Eastern Ontario (11%). The Greens are doing best in Toronto and Central Ontario (12%) and worst in the Southwest (8%).

The Liberals lead in the 18 to 34 and 35 to 54 age demographics, but are tied with the PCs among those aged 55 or older. The Greens surpass the NDP among the youngest set of voters, and PC support among women is quite low (28%).

The approval rating, however, is not so glowing for the Premier. Only 44% of Ontarians say he is doing a good job while 49% say he isn't. However, as the opposition is divided among three competitive parties, it shouldn't be a cause for concern.

In the federal context it will be interesting to keep an eye on the provincial race, since the support levels aren't significantly different.