Thursday, July 2, 2009

Weekly Projection Update - Conservatives by One

As promised, here is the weekly projection update. Three polls have been added to the projection. These polls were done by Nanos, EKOS, and Léger Marketing, the latter in Quebec only. To review, here are the national (and for Léger, Quebec) results of these newest polls:

The short term projection has drifted slightly in favour of the Conservatives. They've gained three seats, provided by the Liberals (one) and the Bloc Quebecois (two). The Conservatives have seen their national vote edge up by 0.1 points, while the Liberals have lost that amount. The Bloc is up 0.2 and the New Democrats 0.4, while the Greens have lost 0.6 points.

The long-term projection has also seen a few minor changes, but with signficant consequences. The Conservatives have re-gained two seats in the west, one in Alberta and one in the Prairies. These came from the Liberals, who are down two seats to 118 total. The Tories are now at 119, giving them the tiniest of leads. With such a close electoral result, the face of the government is impossible to predict. The New Democrats, who remain at 22, don't give the Liberals (or even the Conservatives) enough to rule with a majority. So, a coalition of convenience could be in order here.

Nationally, the share of the vote has not changed much, with the Tories losing 0.2 points while the NDP and the Greens gain 0.1 and 0.2 points, respectively. Regionally there have been some more dramatic movements. The Conservatives have gained points in Alberta (0.4), but have shown losses in the Prairies (0.4 points) and Atlantic Canada (0.3). The Liberals have shown losses in British Columbia (0.3), Alberta (1.2), and the Prairies (0.3). The NDP is up in three spots, in Alberta (0.7), the Prairies (0.7), and Quebec (0.3). All other movements were smaller than 0.3 points.

From the looks of things, the winner of the next election will have won by the skin of his teeth. It is really a testament to how weak the two major parties are at the moment that neither can manage much more than 33% support. Things usually become clearer during election campaigns, but to have such a close margin between the two parties capable of forming government could leave Parliament even more dysfunctional than it already is.

4 comments:

  1. I really don't get how you consistently have the NDP at 3 seats in BC. In the last election they took 9 seats with 26% of the vote with the Tories up at 44%. Most polls now have them at almost the same level with 24 or 25% while the Tories are way down in the low 30s. I keep looking at the BC results from last October and I really don't see all that many vulnerable NDP seats - especially with Tory support down so far. Vancouver-Kingsway could go back to the Liberals in a big Liberal upswing, but just about every other NDP seat is pretty safe - and if the gap between the NDP and the Tories narrowd from 18% to about 8% - that would also mean the NDP gaining places like Surrey North and North Vancouver Island.

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  2. You may be right, but the party also won only 5 seats with 26.6% in 2004.

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  3. Yes, but now there are 9 incumbents in BC many of whom have built up really big margins in themlast election. Its different from 2004 when the NDP was coming from only having 2 incumbents in 2000.

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  4. You've got a good point, so I looked at my numbers and I've made some tweaks. It should give the NDP another two seats or so in the next update.

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