Friday, July 3, 2009

Monthly Picture: June 2009

Now it's time to look at the polling average over the month of June. A staggering eleven national polls were taken during this month, totalling 23,480 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Liberals - 34.4% (+0.7)
Conservatives - 32.0% (+0.5)
New Democrats - 15.3% (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.2% (+0.2)
Greens - 8.6% (-0.9)

June was a good month for both the Liberals and the Conservatives. The NDP and Bloc have managed to maintain themselves, but most of the Tory/Liberal gain seems to have come at the expense of the Greens, who lost almost an entire point. The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Liberals - 123 (+2)
Conservatives - 112 (-3)
Bloc Quebecois - 49 (unchanged)
New Democrats - 24 (+2)
Greens - 0 (-1)

The Liberals have inched up, but remain within what would be dubbed an "unstable" minority. The NDP makes a few gains, but the Greens are booted out of Parliament.

The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (nine polls)

Conservatives - 35.1% (-1.7)
Liberals - 31.0% (+3.4)
New Democrats - 21.5% (-2.0)
Greens - 11.9% (+1.4)

ALBERTA (eight polls)

Conservatives - 59.2% (+4.8)
Liberals - 20.2% (-0.5)
New Democrats - 11.1% (+0.8)
Greens - 8.5% (-4.8)

PRAIRIES (eight polls)

Conservatives - 47.7% (+2.0)
Liberals - 26.4% (+5.3)
New Democrats - 18.6% (-3.8)
Greens - 6.8% (-2.9)

ONTARIO (eleven polls)

Liberals - 40.6% (+0.3)
Conservatives - 35.1% (no change)
New Democrats - 14.3% (+0.1)
Greens - 9.6% (+0.3)

QUEBEC (thirteen polls)

Bloc Quebecois - 36.8% (+0.2)
Liberals - 33.3% (-1.0)
Conservatives - 13.4% (+1.0)
New Democrats - 10.0% (-0.8)
Greens - 6.2% (+0.3)

ATLANTIC CANADA (ten polls)

Liberals - 39.2% (+3.7)
Conservatives - 26.4% (-3.2)
New Democrats - 26.1% (+1.8)
Greens - 7.3% (-2.1)

The Liberals had a good month, gaining in four areas and losing in two. Gains of more than three points in British Columbia, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada are important leaps forward. The Conservatives are up in three areas and down in two. Their biggest jump was in Alberta, but that 4.8-point gain makes up for the almost equal loss they saw in May. Their 3.2-point loss in Atlantic Canada should be worrying for them, as it almost puts them in third place in the region.Their Ontario result has not moved, in a way belying the apparent volatilty in Ontario. Looking at these numbers, the vote in Ontario is virtually unchanged over the last two months.

The NDP were up in three and down in three regions. Their most significant movement was in the Prairies, where they almost lost four points. That is an important region for them. The 1.8-point gain in Atlantic Canada is big, as they are almost in second place. The Greens were also up and down in three regions each, but saw big losses in Alberta and the Prairies. Their loss of more than two points in Atlantic Canada puts them out of a seat. The Bloc has remained steady, and has even inched up a bit.

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