Monday, July 6, 2009

New Strategic Counsel Poll: 1% Conservative Lead

The Globe and Mail is reporting on a new Strategic Counsel poll. The information in the G&M article has serious gaps, so hopefully CTV (for whom Strategic Counsel also conducted the poll) will give more details. Strategic Counsel is rather slow in posting new information on their website, so those two reports might be all we have to go on for a few days.

The poll involved 1,000 interviews, and was taken recently. There are no more details than that.

07/07/09 15:51 UPDATE: The poll was taken between July 2 and July 5, according to a Reuters report. Still waiting on SC to update their website.

The national result:

Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 33%
New Democrats - 15%
BQ/GPC - ?

This is nothing unusual, we've seen how close the numbers have been in recent days. The Ontario result also shows a slim Tory lead:

Conservatives - 43%
Liberals - 39%
New Democrats - 11%
Greens - ?

This looks like the recent EKOS poll, but we saw how that was counter-balanced by the Nanos poll. And now Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 44%
Liberals - 31%
Conservatives - 15%

That is a huge number for the Bloc, probably an outlier until we see another 40+ poll, but run-of-the-mill results for the Liberals and Tories. It will be interesting to see what the NDP support level is in Quebec in this poll, as it seems Bloc gains and losses mirror those of the NDP more than any other party.

Stay tuned, hopefully we'll have more details soon!