Thursday, July 23, 2009

Weekly Projection Update - Conservatives by Seven

The projection has been updated, but there haven't been any major changes.

In the short-term projection, the Conservatives have gained six seats while the Liberals have lost four. The NDP and Bloc have also lost one each. However, the Conservatives are still down in the national vote by 0.3 points. The NDP and the Bloc have gained 0.1 points while the Greens have lost 0.2. The Liberals have remained stable.

In the long-term projection, there have been no seat changes. Nationally, the Liberals have lost 0.1 points while the NDP and the Greens have gained 0.1 points each.

Regionally, there haven't been many significant movements. The largest come in Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals have lost 0.5 points to the NDP. In the Prairies, the Liberals have also lost 0.3 points.

So, the Conservatives have maintained a small gap in seats and look to maintain their minority government - through it will be strongly weakened. This shows that despite the close race, the Conservative vote is more efficient. The big reason for this is that they haven't been wiped out in Quebec and have remained competitive in Ontario. Comparatively speaking, the Liberals are too weak in the West to hope to form government with such a close race.