Thursday, July 9, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 0.4% Liberal Lead

EKOS released a new poll today, taken between June 30 and July 7 and involving 3,088 respondents. Here are the national results:

Liberals - 32.2%
Conservatives - 31.8%
New Democrats - 16.0%
Greens - 10.7%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.3%

This is another very close poll, pretty much confirming that Canada is split between the two major parties. It should be pointed out, however, that the Liberals saw a small up-tick at the end of the polling period.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada (35.1%), Ontario (39.2%), among females, under 25 year olds, 25-44 year olds, 45-64 year olds, university graduates, and in Toronto.

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia (37.2%), Alberta (57.1%), the Prairies (35.4%), among males, 65+ year olds, high school graduates, college graduates, in Vancouver, and in Calgary. The Ontario result for the Tories is 33.9% (back from some highs we've seen over the last few polls), and the Quebec result is 16.2%.

The New Democrats don't lead anywhere, but are in second in Atlantic Canada (29.6%) and the Prairies (27.1%). The best result for the Greens comes in the Prairies, at 14.8%. The Bloc is showing a bit of improvement over past Ekos polls at 37.1%.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Liberals - 117
Conservatives - 110
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 30
Greens - 1

So, still very close. But the Liberals could govern with the support of the NDP, though a majority is out of the question for even a coalition.

Projection update coming later today.


  1. What I found most noteworthy in this ekos poll was the surprisingly close numbers in Metropolitan Toronto.

    Past polls have seen the Conservatives trailing the Liberals there by 10 or more points; in this poll the gap is only 4 points.

    Especially surprising, is that this Liberal lead in Toronto is smaller than their lead in Ontario as a whole (5.3%).

    Is this an outlier poll? Possibly. While the sample size for Metropolitan Toronto is not large, it isn't tiny either (395).

  2. EKOS counts the entire CMA as "Toronto", so that would seem to include a lot of the outlying regions around the city currently held by Conservatives.

    The big Liberal lead in Ottawa is interesting to me, since a lot of the seats in Ottawa are held by Tories.

  3. Out of curiosity, what seat would that be going to the Greens? Or is the model not that precise?

  4. The model isn't that precise. But, in this case it would be Elizabeth May in Central Nova - assuming of course she runs there. If she doesn't, which is a possibilty, I will have to make some changes.

  5. Elizabeth May wins Central Nova?

    Thanks for the laugh :]


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