Thursday, July 9, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 0.4% Liberal Lead

EKOS released a new poll today, taken between June 30 and July 7 and involving 3,088 respondents. Here are the national results:

Liberals - 32.2%
Conservatives - 31.8%
New Democrats - 16.0%
Greens - 10.7%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.3%

This is another very close poll, pretty much confirming that Canada is split between the two major parties. It should be pointed out, however, that the Liberals saw a small up-tick at the end of the polling period.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada (35.1%), Ontario (39.2%), among females, under 25 year olds, 25-44 year olds, 45-64 year olds, university graduates, and in Toronto.

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia (37.2%), Alberta (57.1%), the Prairies (35.4%), among males, 65+ year olds, high school graduates, college graduates, in Vancouver, and in Calgary. The Ontario result for the Tories is 33.9% (back from some highs we've seen over the last few polls), and the Quebec result is 16.2%.

The New Democrats don't lead anywhere, but are in second in Atlantic Canada (29.6%) and the Prairies (27.1%). The best result for the Greens comes in the Prairies, at 14.8%. The Bloc is showing a bit of improvement over past Ekos polls at 37.1%.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Liberals - 117
Conservatives - 110
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 30
Greens - 1

So, still very close. But the Liberals could govern with the support of the NDP, though a majority is out of the question for even a coalition.

Projection update coming later today.