EKOS has released a new poll today, taken between July 8 and July 14 and involving 2,713 interviews. The national result:
Conservatives - 34.1%
Liberals - 32.4%
New Democrats - 15.2%
Greens - 9.6%
Bloc Quebecois - 8.7%
Surprisingly little movement. The Conservatives maintain a very slim lead. Nationally, they lead among males (36%), 45-64 year olds (36%), 65+ years old (44%), people with a high school education (35%), college education (36%), in Calgary (66%), and Ottawa (48%). They also lead in British Columbia (40%), Alberta (56%), and the Prairies (51%). The Tories are tied with the Liberals at 35% in Vancouver.
The Liberals lead among females (33%), 25 year olds or younger (25%), 25-44 year olds (32%), people with a university education (39%), and in Toronto (45%). They also lead in Ontario (39%) and Atlantic Canada (41%).
The Bloc Quebecois leads in Montreal (35%) and in the province as a whole (34%).
This poll would translate into the following seat totals:
Conservatives - 121
Liberals - 118
Bloc Quebecois - 46
New Democrats - 23
This poll also asked about opinions of the Afghanistan mission. Support is dropping away, and stands at 34% with 54% opposed. The highest support level comes in the Prairies, at 48%. The highest opposition level comes in Quebec, at 73%. Of all parties, only Conservative supporters favour the mission (51% for, 37% against). Liberal supporters are next, with 31% for and 58% against, followed by the Greens (26% to 65%). Another similar opinion result between Liberals and Greens gives more weight to my theory that the two parties have the same sort of supporters. The NDP (20% to 72%) and the Bloc (11% to 77%) are most opposed to the mission, which comes as no surprise.
I will be updating the projection in a few hours. With three polls (Strategic Counsel, Angus-Reid, and now Ekos), the projection should change.