Thursday, July 16, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 1.7% Conservative Lead

EKOS has released a new poll today, taken between July 8 and July 14 and involving 2,713 interviews. The national result:

Conservatives - 34.1%
Liberals - 32.4%
New Democrats - 15.2%
Greens - 9.6%
Bloc Quebecois - 8.7%

Surprisingly little movement. The Conservatives maintain a very slim lead. Nationally, they lead among males (36%), 45-64 year olds (36%), 65+ years old (44%), people with a high school education (35%), college education (36%), in Calgary (66%), and Ottawa (48%). They also lead in British Columbia (40%), Alberta (56%), and the Prairies (51%). The Tories are tied with the Liberals at 35% in Vancouver.

The Liberals lead among females (33%), 25 year olds or younger (25%), 25-44 year olds (32%), people with a university education (39%), and in Toronto (45%). They also lead in Ontario (39%) and Atlantic Canada (41%).

The Bloc Quebecois leads in Montreal (35%) and in the province as a whole (34%).

This poll would translate into the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 121
Liberals - 118
Bloc Quebecois - 46
New Democrats - 23

This poll also asked about opinions of the Afghanistan mission. Support is dropping away, and stands at 34% with 54% opposed. The highest support level comes in the Prairies, at 48%. The highest opposition level comes in Quebec, at 73%. Of all parties, only Conservative supporters favour the mission (51% for, 37% against). Liberal supporters are next, with 31% for and 58% against, followed by the Greens (26% to 65%). Another similar opinion result between Liberals and Greens gives more weight to my theory that the two parties have the same sort of supporters. The NDP (20% to 72%) and the Bloc (11% to 77%) are most opposed to the mission, which comes as no surprise.

I will be updating the projection in a few hours. With three polls (Strategic Counsel, Angus-Reid, and now Ekos), the projection should change.


  1. Interesting how little the Conservative and Lib numbers are changing, neck and neck.

  2. We are hopelessly mired in an era of Minority governments. I don't think that will change as long as Harper and Ignatieff lead their respective parties.

  3. I'd say it won't change as long as the Bloc Quebecois remains the favourite party in Quebec and the NDP is capable of winning 20+ seats.

  4. I don't think that we are "mired" in an era of minority governments. That is the future for Canadian poltics at least in the short term with 5 parties vying for power instead of the 3 back over the years. In this new era of minority governments, the parties will need to change, not the electorate. All parties need to recognize that to gain a majority they must be willing to work with other parties not against them. The Conservatives will never be able to sustain +40% numbers nor will the Liberals.


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