Thursday, July 30, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 1.6% Liberal Lead

EKOS has released a new poll today, taken between July 22 and July 28 and involving 3,161 interviews. The national result:

Liberals - 34.1%
Conservatives - 32.5%
New Democrats - 14.5%
Greens - 10.4%
Bloc Quebecois - 8.6%

These results match pretty closely to the Angus-Reid poll today. This is good for the Liberals, who needed some good news after some inconclusive polling. They lead in Ontario (39% to 35%) and Atlantic Canada (39.8% to 28.3%), ahead of the Conservatives. They're within striking distance in British Columbia (30.6% to 34.9%) and Quebec (32.7% to 34.2% for the Bloc). They are in front of the Conservatives among females by 7.2 points, 25-44 year olds by 5.2 points, 45-64 year olds by 0.8, and university graduates by 0.8 points. The Liberals also lead in Toronto by 13.1 points. Among those aged 24 or younger, the Liberals lead the NDP by 5.2 points.

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia, Alberta (49.7% to 24.1%), and the Prairies (48.9% to 26.5% for the Liberals). They've regained second spot in Atlantic Canada and are at a decent 17.4% in Quebec. They lead the Liberals among males (4 points), 65+ year olds (9.1 points), high school graduates (7.7 points), college graduates (4.7 points), in Vancouver (13.6 points), Calgary (22.2 points), and Ottawa (2.3 points).

The Bloc lead the Liberals in Montreal by 0.6 points.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Liberals - 124
Conservatives - 115
Bloc Quebecois - 46
New Democrats - 23

This small lead is enough to give the Liberals the reigns of power, thanks to strong results in the West (24 seats). This sort of result, however, would be troubling for the NDP.

I'm going to hold off on a projection update and wait for the AR polling data to come in. If it isn't in by tomorrow, I'll update with just the EKOS poll.