Friday, July 10, 2009

New AR Poll: 6% Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid released a new poll yesterday, taken between July 2 and July 3 and involving 1,003 respondents. Note: this poll is older than the Strategic Counsel and EKOS polls from the past week, and both included the Angus-Reid polling days in their own polls.

The national results:

Conservatives - 36%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 16%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 7%

This is a monster result for the Conservatives, the highest they've had in months. One has to strongly suspect, however, that this is an outlier result. Both EKOS and SC showed a much closer race, with EKOS even putting the Liberals ahead. Nevertheless, it is an indication that the Tory vote is still strong.

The Conservatives lead in most demographics in this poll: males (42%), 18-34 year olds (27%), 35-54 year olds (36%), and 55+ year olds (42%). The Liberals lead among women (34%). Regionally, the race in British Columbia is very close (41% CPC, 36% LPC), but the Tories are well ahead in Alberta and the Prairies. The race is also close in Ontario:

Conservatives - 37%
Liberals - 34%
New Democrats - 19%
Greens - 9%

This is a good result for the NDP, and as the other polls also showed a close horse-race between the two major parties, we have to believe these numbers to be pretty accurate, at least in terms of the gap.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois appears to be pulling away. If you look at the opinion polling trends, a distinct lead is starting to form for the Bloc. The result:

Bloc Quebecois - 38%
Liberals - 27%
Conservatives - 16%
New Democrats - 12%
Greens - 6%

The NDP result keeps them in the picture for a seat. Finally, in Atlantic Canada this poll bucks the trend, placing the NDP in third (22%) behind the Tories (30%). The Liberals are way ahead, at 45%.

The poll also asked who was trusted to handle the economy, and Stephen Harper received a 41% trust rating compared to Michael Ignatieff's 32%. Those results are very close to the national support levels, however.

This poll would have resulted in the following seats totals:

Conservatives - 133
Liberals - 98
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 26

More or less a repeat of 2006.

Strategic Counsel also posted the details of their poll. What was revealed was a weak 7% result for the NDP in Quebec, and an even worse 4% for the Greens. In Ontario, the Greens had 7%.

SC breaks things down into Ontario, Quebec, "Rest of Canada", and "West". The RoC breakdown is puzzling, as it doesn't tell us anything at all. Anyway, in the West we can look at changes from the previous SC poll in early June. The Tories have maintained themselves at 41%, the Liberals have gained five points to reach 26%, the NDP has lost two points to finish at 23%, and the Greens have lost three points and are at 10%.

Both of these polls will be added to the projection at the next weekly update.