Thursday, July 15, 2010

BC NDP leads by 23 points

A new British Columbia poll by Angus-Reid gives the New Democrats a huge lead over Premier Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals.The BC NDP under Carole James are at 46%, unchanged from Angus-Reid's last poll at the beginning of June. But the BC Liberals have lost three points and are down to a meager 23%.

The BC Greens are stable at 14%, as are the BC Conservatives at 8%.

The NDP is doing best on Vancouver Island, where they lead with 67% (up 13 points). The Greens are in second there, with 12% (down four), followed by the BC Liberals at 9% (down nine).

The NDP leads everywhere else, with 41% in Vancouver (down five), 43% in the BC Interior (stable), and 36% in the north (up two). In Vancouver, the BC Liberals followed with 28% (up one) and the Greens are at 16% (up one). In the Interior, the BC Liberals are down nine to 21%, followed by the Greens at 13% (up six) and the BC Conservatives at 11% (down five). The North is the closest race, with the BC Liberals down nine to 26%, followed by the Greens at 13% (down five) and the BC Conservatives at 12% (up five).

The HST is the huge problem, as most British Columbians are opposed to it and would even sign petitions to recall their Liberal MLAs. People in Ontario are a little more level headed. It's just a few points on a few things, and British Columbians still pay less than we do here in Ontario. Meanwhile, all of our provincial governments are aching for funds.

Anywho, I put together a projection model for British Columbia. It is a little difficult, as the parties have changed a lot over the years and the seats have gone from 75 to 79 and then to 85 in the last election. There are also a lot of extremes, with the NDP being reduced from government to two seats back when Gordon Campbell first came in.

Nevertheless, with this poll I project 72 seats for the New Democrats and 13 for the BC Liberals.

One wonders if Carole James will beat Pauline Marois to be the first elected female premier of a major Canadian province. As elections in both provinces aren't supposed to happen before 2013, the race is on!

32 comments:

  1. Off topic (sorry, Éric!) but when I'm wrong I like to own up to it promptly.

    The NDP sniping is petty politics; Frank Iacobucci is an excellent choice. There was never any question about Iacobucci as a person. The issue was the role he was asked to play previously.

    Now, back to the BC polls.

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  2. I hope neither James nor Marois become the first female Premier of a major province - James for her general incompetence and demeanor, and Marois because she's head of the Parti Quebecois.

    The NDP in BC need to change leaders, then they'll see real change. James isn't much different from Campbell in a lot of ways, and she won't repeal the HST if she gets in. BCers deserve something better. I'd think it'd be better if Adrianne Carr came back.

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  3. It will be interesting to come back to these sort of polls when the elections happens.

    When Carole James run her election in 2013 will she say that she is getting rid of the HST? Not very likely. There may be signs that the HST actually created jobs and wealth... then what?

    In Quebec even the recovering economy will not save Charest. There is no statute of limitations on a campaign against corruption.

    The biggest thing that would be the majority Federal government of Harper that might be in place in 2013 (with 2-3 years left) and the relationship that Quebec has with the RoC.

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  4. Compared to the May, 2009 election:

    NDP: 46% (+4%)
    BC Liberal: 23% (-23%)
    Greens: 14% (+6%)
    Conservatives: 8% (+6%)
    OTHER/IND: 9% (+7.5%)

    The NDP seems to have a glass ceiling in BC of about 46% and is not the prime beneficiary of Liberal vote parking taking in only 4%. The other 20% has parked elsewhere.

    OTOH, during the 1990's under the NDP government, Liberal support reached as high as 70%.

    These poll results are more a reflection of the negative lightning rod of Gordon Campbell himself.

    72 per cent of respondents now have an even lower opinion of Campbell than they did just three months ago.

    For that matter, Carole James takes alot of flack in BC and her approval numbers, while much better than Campbell's, aren't great either.

    It seems to be common ground that prior to the next election, both parties will see a change in leadership.

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  5. The next Albertan provincial election is also likely to come in 2013, and Danielle Smith could well win that.

    I'm confident we'll have an elected female premier in at least one of those three provinces by the end of that year.

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  6. Éric, to be correct, you should say the "first elected woman premier of a major Canadian province". Rita Johnson was premier of BC after she won the Social Credit leadership following Bill Vander Zalm's resignation. She did not get reelected, however, losing to Mike Harcourt and the NDP.

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  7. TPG,

    Quite right, thanks for the correction.

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  8. Since we don't actually elect premiers or prime ministers its a pretty murky distinction.

    I'd say we're looking for the "first female party leader who successfully wages an election and afterwards is premier of a major Canadian province".

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  9. I think Eric is referring to being the first woman premier elected by the people. Rita Johnson won a Social Credit leadership convention and became Premier (briefly) after Vander Zalm resigned in disgrace, but she never was elected Premier by the people (ie: she never won a general election). She was another Kim Campbell.

    The only elected female premier in Canadian history is Catherine Callbeck who was Premier of PEI in the early 90s.

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  10. DL,

    You forgot about Pat Duncan, elected Premier of the Yukon in 2000.

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  11. "The NDP seems to have a glass ceiling in BC of about 46%"

    ...and the federal Tories seem to have a glass ceiling of 36%! In reality the BC NDP would probably scoop up about half of the 14% of the vote that is currently parked with the moribund BC Green party - so they would get over 50%. Outside of Alberta and Newfoundland - its almost unheard of for any party in any province to get much above the high 40s in popular support.

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  12. Yukon is not a province. But on that note the NWT had Nellie Courneyea as Premier as well.

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  13. The most interesting numbers in this poll are not shown by Eric, but if memory serves me correctly 67% said they would sign in favour of recalling government MLAs. Eric I know one number was 75% the other 67% but I can't access the poll. Would you be able to remind me exactly what those numbers referred to?

    Thanks,

    Earl

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  14. I think this poll reflects more so on how bad the NDP are doing. I wouldn't expect Danny Williams' level of support but you would think that with everything going on with the Liberals the NDP would atleast crack the 50% mark.

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  15. Volkov,

    Is it just me or do the last names Campbell and Charest both start with a "C"?...

    Interesting political point, isn't it!

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  16. Ronald,

    It is! Mind you, Chretien had a pretty easy time of it!

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  17. I'm not sure why the NDP "ought" to be over 50%? I look at other ridiculously unpopular governments in canada and I don't see anyone over 50%. The most hated Premier in Canada is Shawn Graham of NB - yet the PCs in NB never seem to be all that high in the polls. In Quebec, no matter how unpopular Charest is - i never see the PQ getting anywhere near 50%. Stelmach is hated in Alberta and yet his party is still neck and neck with the Wildrose Alliance.

    The story in this poll is that the Social Credit/BC Liberal/rightwing federal Liberal and federal Tory alliance to stop the NDP is falling apart.

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  18. Anyone have access to all the numbers in this poll? the link at the top of Eric's post won't work for me. Help please.

    Thanks,

    Earl

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  19. It's amazing that Gordon Campbell is going to suffer his greatest defeat not because he was arrested for drunk driving (which he was), but because he's imposing a very small tax increase and just handling the communication terribly.

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  20. "I'm not sure why the NDP "ought" to be over 50%?"

    As stated earlier, during the NDP government of the 1990's, the opposition Liberals went over the 70% benchmark in public opinion.

    http://web.archive.org/web/20030608110310/http://www.mustelgroup.com/voterdec01.gif

    And that was under the same political circumstances as exist today under the incumbent government.

    Campbell Momentum: -71
    James Momentum: - 8

    Remove Campbell from the political equation and insert Carole Taylor and/or Dianne Watts and the political dynamic will change considerably.

    The same political dynamic was extant with the replacement of incumbent Bennett in '86 (by Vander Zalm) and the replacement of incumbent Harcourt in '96 (by Clark).

    The replacements were treated like movie stars by the BC media, created a bandwagon effect, and the replacements both went on to win majority governments.

    These incumbent "replacements" can only be done once in a government's term. Witness the Rita Johnston/Ujjal Dosanjh effect.

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  21. Found what I was looking for. Campbell's government may not be long for the world:

    http://www.visioncritical.com/2010/07/with-hst-in-effect-bc-liberals-remain-target-of-peoples-anger/

    Leadership

    Over the course of the past three months, only one per cent of BC respondents say their opinion of Premier Campbell has improved, whereas 72 per cent say it has worsened. This puts his momentum score at -71. NDP Leader Carole James fares better at -8. Green Party Leader Jane Sterk sits at -3—but three-in-ten respondents (30%) have no opinion of her.

    Recall of MLAs

    Some activists have called on voters to sign recall petitions against BC Liberal lawmakers to protest the HST. In all, 67 per cent of respondents who live in provincial ridings currently held by the BC Liberals say they would sign such a petition—a five-point increase since June.

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  22. The election won't be in 2013.

    Rumour has it that the NDP is planning to sieze control of the anti-HST movement this fall and initiate enough recall petitions to cause Gordon Campbell to lose control of the legislature.

    BTW - Completely agree that the NDP will NOT do a thing about the HST. They'll get into power and raise it like NDP premier Darrel Dexter. That's what NDP premiers do!

    Ditto for the carbon tax.

    Sooner they take power the better. Then we can get on with recalling our NDP MLAs and replacing them with true Conservatives.

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  23. The election won't be in 2013.

    Rumour has it that the NDP is planning to sieze control of the anti-HST movement this fall and initiate enough recall petitions to cause Gordon Campbell to lose control of the legislature.

    BTW - Completely agree that the NDP will NOT do a thing about the HST. They'll get into power and raise it like NDP premier Darrel Dexter. That's what NDP premiers do!

    Ditto for the carbon tax.

    Sooner they take power the better. Then we can get on with recalling our NDP MLAs and replacing them with true Conservatives.

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  24. Replacing Campbell won't make any difference. There comes a time when a government is so hated that it has gone past the point of no return. Replacing Mulroney with Kim Campbell did the Tories no good. Replacing Glen Clark with Dosanjh did the NDP no good. Replacing Mike Harris with Ernie Eves did the Ontario Tories no good. Its not just Campbell - its everything he and his wretched party stand for that people hate. Whoever succeeds him will still be a strong supporter of the HST. They can run but they will never be able to hide.

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  25. If things look bad for the BC Libs in 2012, Campbell will step down and Carole Taylor will be arm twisted back into politic to become the next Premier of BC.

    She could be the next leader of the federal CPC or Liberals - whoever loses the next federal election

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  26. "Replacing Mike Harris with Ernie Eves did the Ontario Tories no good."

    That's because the people in his party forced Eves to go back to the far-right Harris policies. Eves had a period when he tried to govern more from the centre when he wasn't doing so bad.

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  27. "Replacing Campbell won't make any difference. There comes a time when a government is so hated that it has gone past the point of no return. Replacing Mulroney with Kim Campbell did the Tories no good."
    ----------------------------------
    That's what the same people said in 1986 about Bennett - and he was absolutely loathed back then. An NDP win was a slam dunk. Same can be said about the NDP under Harcourt when it was mired in scandal. And when the Tories went up in smoke in BC in 1993, Reform swept the province.

    Both Carole Taylor and Dianne Watts are on the record opposing the HST. They certainly are top-of-mind in terms of most favoured premier in BC. The ARS poll from last fall also confirms that. And the NDP is on the record for keeping the HST until its expiration in 2015.

    BTW, unlike in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the NDP still has a certain stigma in BC, same as in Ontario.

    NDP support is not solid pro-NDP, but anti-Gordon Campbell. Take him out of the equation and much of that anger will leave with him. I've seen this political movie played out before several times in BC.

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  28. "Both Carole Taylor and Dianne Watts are on the record opposing the HST."

    Carole Taylor sat around a cabinet table where the decision was made to impose the HST. She can't pretend that she was against it all along. I'd also like to eat popcorn while watching the train wreck of a leadership campaign for the BC Liberal leadership if you have Carole Taylor running a campaign that's all about denouncing the "jewel in the crown" of her party's time in power - the HST.

    All that being said, Carole Taylor is about 70 years old (amazing what several rounds of cosmetic surgery can cover up) and I think she'd be considered over the hill to be a party leader. Dianne Watts apparently was seriously injured in a car accident and has no fire in her belly to go into provincial politics - so even if Campbell quits - his successor will be 100% tarred with the HST brush.

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  29. DL what are you talking about ?

    Carole Taylor was gone at the end of 2008 to help design the federal government's stimulus package.

    Even people who think the Campbell government decided on the HST before the election don't think they had planned it that far in advance.


    Anyways, its been reported that neither Carole Taylor or Diane Watts want the job. Watts is focused on making Surrey the Best. City. EVER.

    If Vander Zalm doesn't make a move to return to politics then the party to watch is the BC Conservative party.

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  30. DL - Your view from Ontario is a tad out of touch.

    Carole Taylor already resigned from cabinet and announced her decision not to run in late 2008. How could she be around a cabinet table making an HST decision?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bcs-carole-taylor-joins-outcry-against-hst/article1547792/

    As for your ageism bit, she looks and acts likes she's in her late 50's and I have seen considerable support for her on professional internet boards populated by people in their 20's.

    Never mind about the age of Reagan and Adenauer when they first took office.

    The HST is loathed across the political spectrum and a leadership convention is no longer a delegate matter - it's a vote by the membership.

    I suspect that the provincial component of the HST will be dropped by 1% in 2013 as part of her platform. Nevertheless, a new leader is all about "change" in any event.

    And Dianne Watts has fully recovered from her car accident and is back to her usual go-go routine.

    And that leaves the NDP. Most people are still not aware that the NDP will keep the HST until 2015.

    With a new Liberal leader, the NDP will also likely dump Carole James based upon alot of negative media stories about her and the musings of many New Democrats out here on the west coast.

    And as former NDP MLA and Strategic Thoughts blogger David Schreck wrote the other day:

    "New Democrats approach leadership races like gladiators going at each other with meat axes at a distance of two feet."

    Not that one is gonna be a fun one to watch. Make sure that you have at least 5 bags of popcorn handy. ;)

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  31. One further point - Both Taylor and Watts have not said "No" to a leadership run for obvious reasons.

    The inside scoop on their intentions was previously reported here:

    http://alexgtsakumis.com/2009/12/12/breaking-news-the-return-of-carole-taylor/

    Even the official blogger for Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson and Vision Vancouver, Jonathon Ross, has confirmed this about Watts:

    "And now I have received a few emails that Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts is quietly preparing for the day that Premier Campbell announces his departure."

    http://civicscene.ca/post-olympics-no-picnic-for-premier-watts-prepares-to-run

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  32. If if 70 year old Carole Taylor dodders around BC in the 2013 election as BC Liberal leader - will she issue an abject apology for the HST and denounce Gordon Campbell and everyone in his government for having brought it in?? Anything less than that will not pass the sniff test.

    In any case, Taylor has been very wishy-washy in her comments about the HST. She seems to think it was badly executed and that the politics of it are bad for her party - its not at all clear that she actually thinks its a bad policy (I doubt she does).

    That being said, if she wants to follow in the footsteps of Rita Johnson and Kim Campbell - she's welcome to it!

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