Monday, July 12, 2010

Projection: 129 CPC, 94 LPC, 52 BQ, 33 NDP's new projection shows the Conservatives up, the Liberals down, and the others relatively stable, with seat changes in Ontario and Quebec.The Conservatives have picked up another seat and now stand at 129, still a loss of 15 MPs from their current standing in the House of Commons. The Liberals are down one seat to 94, nevertheless still a gain of 17 seats.

The Bloc Québécois is steady at 52 seats while the New Democrats are steady at 33. This represents a gain of four for the Bloc and a loss of three for the NDP.

In terms of popular vote, the Conservatives are unchanged at 33.1% while the Liberals are down 0.2 points to 27.7%. The gap is now 5.4 points, still narrower than the two elections that have put Stephen Harper in power.

The NDP, Bloc, and Greens all gain 0.1 points nationally, putting them at 16.9%, 9.7%, and 10.5%, respectively.

The Conservatives have regained the lead in Ontario, thanks to a 0.1 point gain. They are now at 35.4%, slightly ahead of the Liberals at 35.2% (down 0.3). The Liberals have also lost a seat in the province, and are now at 46. It is the NDP, who is up 0.2 points to 17.1%, that has gained the seat from them. They are now at 15 seats in Ontario. The Greens are steady at 10.6%.

In Quebec, the Bloc jumps 0.3 points and is now at 39.2%. The Liberals are down 0.1 to 22.8% and the Conservatives are up 0.1 to 16.8%. The NDP is down 0.2 to 12.2% and the Greens are down 0.1 to 7.2%. The NDP lose a seat and are now down to one in the province, while the Conservatives gain a seat and are now at seven. That isn't to say that the Conservatives take a seat away from the NDP, just that the net result is a Tory gain.

The Conservatives are up 0.6 points in British Columbia and lead with 36.7%. The NDP is down 0.1 to 26.5% and the Liberals are steady at 22.6%. The Greens are at 12.1%, down 0.4 points.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 37.1% (up 0.2), while the Conservatives and NDP are unchanged at 32.4% and 22.7%, respectively. The Greens are down 0.1 points to 6.1%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have gained 0.9 points and lead with 59.8%. The Liberals are at 16.2% (down 0.4), followed by the NDP at 11.3% (unchanged) and the Greens at 9.7% (down 0.4).

The Conservatives lead in the Prairies with 46.2% (down 0.1) while the NDP has gained 0.2 points to 23.0%. The Liberals are unchanged at 21.9% while the Greens are steady at 7.3%.

Finally, in the North, the Liberals lead with 32.9% (down 0.1), followed by the Conservatives (30.0%, unchanged), the NDP (27.3%, unchanged), and the Greens (8.6%, down 0.1).

The winner of this projection update is the Conservative Party, as they have a net gain in the seven regions of 1.6 points. They made small gains in Ontario and Quebec, but big gains in British Columbia and Alberta.

The projection was next best for the Bloc Québécois, as they have gained 0.3 points and have a solid, big lead in Quebec. At 52 seats, this would be their best electoral result since 2004.

The NDP is the last party to have a positive projection update, as they have a net gain of 0.1 points. Their 0.2-point gain in Ontario is big, as is a gain of the same amount in the Prairies. But they are down in British Columbia and Quebec.

The Liberals had a net loss of 0.7 points, with significant drops in Alberta and Ontario. But the party was steady in British Columbia and made a tidy gain in Atlantic Canada.

Finally, the Greens had the worst projection update, as they have had a net loss of 0.9 points. Worst for them is their 0.4-point drop in British Columbia.

With 129 seats, the Conservatives have a two-seat plurality over the combined totals of the Liberals and New Democrats - so it looks like another Conservative minority as in 2006.