Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Projection: CPC 132, LPC 92, BQ 52, NDP 32

With the tweaks I've done to reflect voting day behaviour (which, as some of you have argued, also takes into account organizational strength), I thought I'd do a quick projection update.

I'm not going to compare it to the last projection in detail, as some of the changes are due to the tweaks I've done, rather than polling performance.

But, with the tweaks and the two most recent polls the Conservatives gain three seats and now have 132. Their seat gains come in British Columbia (where they now have 20), Ontario (where they now have 46) and the North (where they now have one).

The seats come from the Liberals in British Columbia and Ontario (where they now have seven and 45, respectively) and the New Democrats in the North (where they now have none).

With a combined 124 seats, that puts the Liberals and NDP out of the running for any sort of coalition.

As for the top line national numbers, the Conservatives are up a full point to 34.1% followed by the Liberals, who are up 0.7 points to 28.4%.

The NDP drops 0.5 points to 16.4% while the Greens drop from 10.5% to 8.9%.

At this point, the Conservatives look set to re-elect another minority government, though it will be weaker than the one they won in 2008. The Liberals gain 15 MPs and the Bloc gains four, so they also have something to play for in the next election, though obviously this result could be seen as a Liberal defeat. The NDP stands to lose the most among the opposition parties, but they would still be at a respectable 32 MPs, which would tie their current third-best result in their history.