Saturday, July 10, 2010

New IR Poll: 6-pt Conservative Lead

Ipsos-Reid has a new poll out, showing that the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives is far narrower than this past week of EKOS polling.Compared to Ipsos-Reid's last poll at the beginning of June, the Conservatives are unchanged at 35%. The Liberals, however, are up two points and are at 29%.

Odd that Liberal supporters will find solace in an Ipsos-Reid poll.

The New Democrats are down one point to 15%, while the Bloc Québécois is up one to 11% and the Greens are down one to 10%.

In Ontario, Ipsos-Reid confirms that the G20 Summit hasn't hurt the Tories. They are up three points to 36%, while the Liberals are down three to 35%. The NDP is doing well, up one to 19%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is well ahead with 45%, unchanged from the June poll. The Liberals are up one to 22% and the Conservatives are up three to 15%. The NDP is steady at 11%.

In British Columbia, the Tories are down eight but still lead with 38% (Ipsos's June result was a little high). The Liberals are up nine to 26% and the New Democrats are up four to 24%. The Greens are at 11%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 42%, up 15 points from June. The Conservatives are down 14 points there. This big change is due to the small sample size and unlikely numbers from the last poll.

The Conservatives lead in Alberta with 66%, up six, while the NDP is down nine to 6%. The Tories are also in front in the Prairies, with 51%. The NDP is down six here to 11%, behind the Greens.

The Conservatives win 70 seats in the West, 46 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 129.

The Liberals win 16 seats in the West and North, 44 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 23 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 97.

The Bloc wins 54 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 9 seats in the West and North, 16 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 1 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 28.

Not a bad poll for the two major parties, as the Conservatives want to be at 35% or over. The Liberals can also be a little happy with this poll, as 29% is at the higher end of their recent scale.

This is a great poll for the Bloc, but a bad one for the NDP. Their only positive result is in Ontario - 19% there would be a big victory for them.

45 comments:

  1. Éric,

    What does it say about a government and the leadership of this Prime Minister when going on five years, all you can manage is to underwhelm your first election victory in 2006 by one point...

    That is precisely why Conservatives are doomed -- short or longer term.

    Canadians are itching for Liberals to get our act together so they can finally try us on for size.

    Everyone knows the NDP won't be forming government anytime soon. The end result, voters have to suck it up and do next time what they have resolutely refused to do for two election cycles, namely, throw those guys out on their collective asses.

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  2. I'm guessing the gap between the last poll really missed out on some serious movement.

    In the run up to the G8/G20 the abortion issue and costs were really hurting the CPC.

    Then the event actually happened. Abortion wasn't an issue. The "Fake Lake" really was just a reflecting pool and the media apologized for suggesting it was a waste of money. The protestors ended up justifying the 1 billion in security. And finally Harper scored some major victories.


    Canada LOVES the G8/G20! Major victory for Harper!

    Can we do it again sometime ??

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  3. This does make the Ekos look more and more like an anomaly.

    Ron's comment re after 5 years Harper still isn't in reach of a majority and actually has fallen back from his current seat count makes a good point.

    Parties in Govt usually get a "blip" in non-election time polling. If that's the case in these two polls then the Tories are in bigger trouble than their dementia allows them to see.

    The cumulative affect of a lot of small issue bad press hasn't really hit them yet but it will over the next few months. I think Harper would be very unwise to push for a Fall election !!

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  4. Shadow,

    "Canada LOVES the G8/G20! Major victory for Harper!

    Can we do it again sometime ??"

    Aren't you the guy a while back who said right here that an election wasn't necessary for the Conservatives???

    Well, if this Prime Minister is accumulating one major victory after another under his belt (oops...scratch those last three words!) why isn't he roaring to go before the voters?

    Might I suggest that the Little Dutch Boy prefers to keep his finger well entrenched in the dike. N'est-ce pas? Can't for the life of me think why.

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  5. Peter,

    "I think Harper would be very unwise to push for a Fall election !!"

    Ipso facto, does that mean you are getting on board with yours truly and will be pushing for us to take them down in October???

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ron you have a point.

    Why risk an election when Harper already has a de facto majority ?

    I've said before that I think Harper should create a big fall mini-budget with all the things the opposition won't pass (ex. telecom deregulation, copyright reform) and then stare them down.

    The omnibus strategy has been successful so far.

    If it fails he blames the opposition for sparking an election and gets a slim majority.

    If it passes he claims a few more victories and continues governing as though he has a majority.

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  7. Ron
    does that mean you are getting on board with yours truly and will be pushing for us to take them down in October???

    Looking at all these latest polls I would say NO party should be trying the election route. Simply because the situation won't improve in any direction.

    Next Spring?? Possibly. Let's see how things progress over the next few months.

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  8. Peter,

    "Next Spring?? Possibly. Let's see how things progress over the next few months."

    Respectfully, you move the numbers by actually doing something about it. Taking the stance of more of the same leads precisely to that: more of the same, further entrenching this government in office.

    Action leads to better poll numbers -- it doesn't work the other way around. Notice how we had the Great Recession and Harper is still Prime Minister. One would think that a few people would have clued in by now that economic negatives are not the road back to power for the Liberal Party. Positive, pro-active positioning based on sound policy is.

    To my mind, the OLO needs to quickly get their hands on a good dictionary and look up the word gumption. That's the trouble right there -- oh what the hell, here it is:

    Pronunciation: (gump'shun), [key]
    —n. Informal.
    1. initiative; aggressiveness; resourcefulness: With his gumption he'll make a success of himself.
    2. courage; spunk; guts: It takes gumption to quit a high-paying job.
    3. common sense; shrewdness.
    Random House Unabridged Dictionary, Copyright © 1997, by Random House, Inc., on Infoplease.

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  9. Shadow,

    We will agree on this point. It's kind of hard to change the government if you're not willing to defeat them.

    If the Liberal strategy isn't completely overhauled we will get an election: a) some time during the next three years, b) on this Prime Minister's own terms and c) with Liberal fortunes likely below where they are now if present trends and more importantly, ACTIVE voter mindset continues as at present.

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  10. Ron O.

    What does the polling say about the Liberals and NDP who after "four years of rule by an absolutely awful government, with a dictator as PM", can't manage to polling above 30% for the Liberals and 20% for the NDP?

    Either that or the CPC's failure has a lot more to do with the BLOC and the Green Party and government isn't so bad after all.

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  11. Respectfully, you move the numbers by actually doing something about it.

    Currently that is the Liberal Party problem. They have NOTHING they can sell to the public. Harper is quite defeatable but not by vacuous pronouncements. The Liberals need clear, acceptable policies and proposals !!

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  12. Earl:

    What does the polling say about the Liberals


    What it does say is that after making two disastrous choices for Leader the public still wants them.

    Which I find encouraging. The desire on the part of the public has transcended two disasters. Let's turn this around and give them a real leader and see what happens !!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi Earl,

    It says that the opposition hasn't done a damned thing right since the last election. No doubt about it.

    Looks like the Liberals are wedded to the tried and untrue...and I thought I had problems when I was still a Red Tory Progressive Conservative in a sea of party controlling Right-Wing Alliance True Believers.

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  14. Shadow: Something from a previous thread:

    I oppose all sales taxes. If we are to have sales taxes at the Federal and provincial levels then yes they should be harmonized. I'll add that I supported the GST over the tax, because it replaced manufacturers sales tax. {http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goods_and_Services_Tax_(Canada)}
    however I believe there were better ways of replacing the MST.

    I can not suport the current HST in it present form in ON or even worse the second provincial sales tax that is hidden, known as the eco-levy. I wish the BC government had tried that. Then we'd get a reaction. A tax that the McGuinty government was so ashamed of that it snuck it in, no debate, no legislation and so far virtually no press coverage, yet it covers more than 5,000 items. The lowest rate is 6.5%.

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  15. Peter,

    " Let's turn this around and give them a real leader and see what happens !!"

    What do you suggest? You don't seem to be of the same view as yours truly who thinks Michael will be leading us in the next election, whenever it comes -- which seemingly won't be anytime soon...

    As leader, Michael has earned his kick at the can so we're going with him unless he should suddenly resign. That's about as likely as this Prime Minister resigning.

    Now, if we win, the rest takes care of itself. If we lose, then the debate centers on whether Michael sticks around or leaves. I have my opinion on that which I'll be more than happy to share with my fellow Liberals as soon as we've seen the election results!

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  16. Ron O I suspect you and I have similar views politically.

    I am not a social conservative. I was amazed when Trudeau famously said the state does not belong in the nations bedrooms. I was a naive late teens early twenty something and didn't realize there were laws governing what one could and could not do in the bedroom. (I continue to be amazed that some Southern States still have laws like that)

    I'm conservative fiscally though. Don't know if that describes you or not but suspect it does.

    I suspect that there's more than the public just not liking the Liberals though. When Harper won in 2006 it wasn't because the public embraced him, it was to throw the Liberals out. Iggy is no more or less loved by the public than SH was. Indeed I'd say there is much less fear of Iggy than there was SH, yet the Liberals can't poll over 30% and most the time are around 25%. That tells me that this government must be doing a pretty good job because they are managing to poll 35% despite a largely unpopular leader.

    Interested in your take.

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  17. Peter I do concur with your take on the latest job numbers. We need to manufacture things again. Until the US and Europe develop the spine to stand up to China though it will be tough slogging as far as manufacturing goes. With a currency pegged far below fair value western manufacturers have little chance of competing.

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  18. Earl,

    This is what Manitoba premier Greg Salinger recently said about imposing an HST, in Manitoba:

    "Our analysis indicates an HST would cost Manitoba families $405 million more per year in new sales taxes. Our experience has been that we can make business taxes more competitive without imposing that kind of heavy burden in new sales taxes on Manitoba families. We firmly believe it would be particularly concerning to impose hundreds of millions of dollars in new sales taxes during a time of economic uncertainty"

    "It would be irresponsible for any government to shut the door completely on any issue particularly when 94% of other Canadians will soon live with an HST. It will take BC, and Ontario eight years to fully implement the HST. It is incumbent upon us to monitor those experiences and our ongoing business competitiveness. However our plan is to improve our business competitiveness without hitting Manitoba families with an HST"

    Selinger has cut the taxes for businesses in Manitoba.

    By December 1 2010, Manitoba will completely eliminate the income tax on small business. This move will benefit more than 80% of Manitoba companies because many small and medium sized companies are able to pay the small business rate on their first $400,000 of taxable income.

    At 1% Manitoba has the lowest small business tax rate in Canada.

    Selinger has also eliminated the corporation capital tax, calling it a disincentive to needed investment in innovation and productivity that can improve a businesses competitiveness.

    Greg Selinger, is known to be a very honest politician, so most people are willing to take his word that an HST, is not on the table.

    Progressive Conservative leader Hugh Mcfadyen, has also suggested the same, saying that he agrees with Selinger's position.

    Both men have agreed that it would put an onerous taxation burden onto the average Manitoba family.

    Mcfadyen, has also suggested that if he forms government no new tax measures such as an HST will ever be imposed without first putting it to the people in the form of a referendum.

    Dr. Jon Gerrard, who has no chance of ever becoming premier of Manitoba has also come out against the imposition of an HST.

    Things seem to be percolating along in Manitoba, and we do not have an HST, so I don't think this province will cave in to Harper, and Flaherty and impose one.

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  19. Ron I think the Liberal party is fundamentally broken.

    Its trying to be all things to all people which won't work now that well defined opposition parties are draining support from what was basically a broad governing coalition of opposing forces held together by power and money.

    My view:

    Kick out anti-abortion members. Kick out gun registry opponents.
    Advocate a 2% increase in GST.
    Let Justin Trudeau become leader.

    Literally have the leader just say to them they need to change their position or leave caucus.

    By handing Harper a majority it frees up the Liberals to vote against him!

    They can become a well defined socially liberal, big city party that likes to spend money but also favours high taxes so budgets stay balanced.

    Instead of rural outreach they should focus on the suburbs of the big cities. Take another look at Vancouver/Victoria. See what Alberta looks like with the new seats.

    Get a solid power base, an exciting leader, develop some policy in opposition, and then wait until Harper screws up and replace him in a wave election.

    Either that OR it'll be an NDP-Liberal coalition with the NDP activists calling the shots.

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  20. Éric,

    Quelle belle journée pour toi!

    Charest reste comme premier ministre.

    Et voilà -- le prochain gouvernement du Québec sera celui du Parti Québécois...

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  21. This poll seems a lot more normal.

    Hopefully the NDP keeps faliing and the Liberals keep gaining.

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  22. Shadow you have also said in the past that it's not about getting a majority for the Conservatives, so why exactly should they try and force Canadians into an election?

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  23. Earl: Re:Eco Fees

    Actually I believe the Eco Fees have been around since 2008. I'm pretty sure (I could be wrong)they just added some more products too it. What's really messed is the way it's applied. Some retailers include the fee in the cost so you don't see that your paying it, while others add it to your receipt. Kinda weird there's no standard.
    Anyway the money doesn't go to the Provincial Gov't. Here's a good site. What's an Eco Fee

    ReplyDelete
  24. Earl,

    "Indeed I'd say there is much less fear of Iggy than there was SH, yet the Liberals can't poll over 30% and most the time are around 25%. That tells me that this government must be doing a pretty good job because they are managing to poll 35% despite a largely unpopular leader."

    Up to this point, I would argue that this Prime Minister has been the choice of those looking for a potential prime minister when casting a ballot. Harper has been seen as the better choice by centrist and right-wing voters. That should change -- and in fact, it HAS TO CHANGE if Michael is to have a chance at forming government. But this PM is no master tactician: from 36% in 2006 to 35% in the latest IR poll...talk about incremental advancement!!!

    Fiscally, I'm temporarily in the hard-line camp. Ira has said that he is rather fiscally conservative. I tend to agree that that's the place we have to be until we are back to balance. However, once there, I move back to my traditional position, that of fiscal flexibility without gross spending exaggerations. Hope this helps!

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  25. Shadow,

    YOUR "TO DO LIST" for Sunday, July 11, 2010:

    Take a serious stab at polishing that crystal ball of yours...it really needs work!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Ron sitting around and doing nothing just isn't an option for the Liberals. Nor is changing the leader!

    Martin wasn't good enough ? Dion wasn't good enough ? Ignatieff isn't good enough ?

    Oh they're not being tough enough ? Martin was tough and lost. Ignatieff tried being tough "Harper, your time is up!" and got walloped in the polls.

    Oh they don't have enough policy ? Martin had policy and lost. Dion had policy and lost.

    Face it. The problem isn't the leader. The problem isn't tactics. The problem isn't a lack of big policy ideas.

    The problem is that the term "Liberal" is meaningless. Its neither here nor there.

    My "crystal ball" wasn't predictions, it was advice. On how to save the party, redefine it, and make it relevent for new times and a new generation.

    My prediction is that Harper will win a majority in the next election and that Bob Rae will lead the Liberals to merge with the NDP, either officially or unofficially depending on the results of the leadership contest to replace Ignatieff.

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  27. Until the US and Europe develop the spine to stand up to China though it will be tough slogging as far as manufacturing goes.

    That's indeed, Earl, part of the problem. Europe incidentally is much tougher on China than the USA but still not tough enough. I'd introduce a custom levy to create a "Fair Value" idea based on the perceived value of the Chinese currency. Artificial holding down of the currencies value, by China, has distorted all world trade.

    But that still wouldn't answer the mfg. problems we have. Because China can always beat us on labour costs. What they can't beat us on however is brains. Prime example of course for us is Bombardier. Who sell aircraft around the world, who have sold high speed trains to China, and done other stuff as well.

    That's the future if we want to go for it. Where brain power is the driver in exports not bulk. We still need China as a market as it is so big. We need to find niches in the worlds markets where our experience and knowledge give us the edge. That's the key.

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  28. 49 Steps

    On your anti-HST ramblings in Manitoba and how well Manitoba is rolling along, you left out the success of it's major revenue source.

    That source is not Manitoba Hydro that kicks in somewhere in the range of $100M year in profit.

    The largest single budget item in Manitoba is money from the rest of Canada. This province of a little over 1 million people is budgeting 1.8 Billion dollars in equalization for 2010/11.

    The next other largest industry in Manitoba is is likely Federal transfers to First nations. Can't tell for sure because there is no accountability or auditing required.

    In the real world Manitoba is a failed state and their politically posturing on business taxes, government subsidies through extremely below market electricity rates and HST is not an good example of anything.

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  29. BC, Voice of Reason,

    You sound extremely angry and bitter this fine Sunday morning.

    Are you angry because BC, has an HST??

    Oh well, that is not the fault of the fine people who call the beautiful province of Manitoba home.

    Hope you lose some of that anger, it can't be healthy.

    Cheers!!

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  30. Shadow,

    "The problem is that the term "Liberal" is meaningless. Its neither here nor there."

    With respect, balderdash. Under your scenario, polling should be static -- Conservatives numbers should have remained north of 40%-45% subsequent to Prorogation I. But that didn't happen. The Liberal brand remains a credible brand. If Liberals were consistently dropping while Conservatives were consistently rising to new heights, yours truly would agree with your proposition. But that isn't how it's playing out. Both of us are well below our respective days of glory. I would call that manageable with opportunity for improvement.

    "My prediction is that Harper will win a majority in the next election and that Bob Rae will lead the Liberals to merge with the NDP, either officially or unofficially depending on the results of the leadership contest to replace Ignatieff."

    Nope. Not in a month of Sundays. This Prime Minister is stuck in his usual polling range -- he won't get out of that rut anytime soon as most Canadians find his government -- how shall I put it? Competent but exceedingly tiresome.

    Now to Bob Rae: at the next leadership convention, whenever that takes place, Liberals will move in the direction of generational change. Bob and Michael are the same age. The next leader will come from a new generation of Liberals. Point One. Secondly, the PC-Reform Alliance analogy doesn't cut the mustard here -- we witnessed the "merger" of a right of center party with a right-wing party with the latter calling the shots in the Conservative Party. You simply can't replicate that on the left. Liberals are LIBERALS, a combination of left of center and right of center market economy, free enterprisers. New Democrats are social-democrats. They are not capitalists. A whole strikingly different animal on the left. You simply can't square that circle by way of a political merger.

    Now back to Bob: his record in Ontario as premier remains to this day a political liability in Ontario. Even wishful and diabolical thinking, on the part of Conservatives, doesn't change the facts on the ground in that province.

    This Prime Minister needs Bob Rae at the helm of the Liberal Party to take Ontario by storm and finally get his coveted majority. I, for one, don't plan on being stupid enough to play right into this PM's hands.

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  31. Peter,

    "I'd introduce a custom levy to create a "Fair Value" idea based on the perceived value of the Chinese currency."

    Now, this is where things can get dicey. I'm not an expert by any means but it's my impression that counterveiling duties can only be imposed in the case of proven dumping on the Canadian market. You can't impose a duty across the board, on any particular nation's industrial output. To do so, would be to violate both the GATT provisions -- not to mention the stipulations mandated under the WTO.

    Don't forget Peter. We have to avoid retaliation. That means playing our cards close to our vest. I'm not saying the answer is to do "Nothing". What I am arguing is: Do No Harm By Way of Ricochet to the Canadian manufacturing and industrial base.

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  32. Peter wrote:

    "Parties in Govt usually get a "blip" in non-election time polling. If that's the case in these two polls then the Tories are in bigger trouble ..."

    By 'blip', you seem to mean 'blip UP'. The historical evidence does not support your contention.

    In fact, because the party in power typically has to make decisions that will annoy at least some people, they are often the lightning rod for discontent. When the election rolls around however, the public is faced with actually making a choice of government rather than just registering displeasure. That is part of the reason that by-elections are often more challenging for sitting governments.

    To consider only the most recent example:
    - during the previous Parliament (39th) the Tories generally had a much narrower lead in the polls than the 11%+ lead they finished with in the election

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  33. Ron:
    Now, this is where things can get dicey. I'm not an expert by any means but it's my impression that countervailing duties can only be imposed in the case of proven dumping on the Canadian market.

    Yes Ron I agree but if you define "dumping" as selling below the real fair value?

    That said this is something the WTO and other bodies should be attacking and aren't. Incidentally I have read the USA is thinking along the lines of a "country of origin" duty which would be essentially the same thing.

    I do agree it is a "dicey" situation but also I think you will agree it is not something that should be tolerated for a long period of time ??

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  34. Éric,

    VIVA ESPAÑA!

    But, Go Netherlands!

    NEDERLAND GAAT!

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  35. Ron how on earth are the Liberals a "credible brand" ? At the federal level they are cooked and at the provincial level they are deeply unpopular in most provinces.

    During the big Harper screw ups they go from 23-25 up to 27-29. What does that ever give them ?

    All it gets the Liberals is a weak CPC minority. Never a Liberal minority.

    So that leaves one option to a Liberal leader. The Dion option. The coalition.

    You may say the parties are incompatible but that's not true. They've made it work before.

    It might be personally uncomfortable for you but the right wing of the Liberal party is a rump. Its maybe 20%.

    Second choice polling bears this out. The Liberals are far more comfortable with the NDP than they are with the Tories.

    You want generational change ? Go with Trudeau. Redefine and rebuild under a Harper majority.

    But Liberals being Liberals I suspect arrogance and hunger for power will win out. Quickest way to government is a Bob Rae merger.

    Bank on it!

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  36. "Canadians find his government -- how shall I put it? Competent but exceedingly tiresome."

    Which Canadians, overwhelmingly, would that be?

    The one's within a 5 km radius of 3 of her major cities?

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  37. Shadow,

    I'm not sure about kicking out anti-abortion or anti-gun registery people from the Liberal party. When you're sitting in the mid-20's and wallowing in fiscal problems, you can't afford to be kicking anyone out.

    But more generally, you're suggestion that saving the Liberal party will involve giving the Tories a majority is probably right. Traditionally, that's the way parties have rebuilt themselves, by using the 4 or 5 years between elections to re-invigorate themselves, by bringing in new people and new money and developing new policies. In the absence of a threat of an immediate election, parties in thsoe circumstances had the time and freedom to rebuild themselves from the ground up. A majority government, gives opposition parties a 4 or 5 year time horizon to reform themeselves.

    The Grits haven't been able to do that since 2006. They've been constantly thinking short-term, about how to try and win an election next month or next fall, to their great detriment. We've seen this in their choice of leaders. They chose Dion because he was the "safe" choice (Iggy was still inexperienced, Rae had a lot of baggage). Then they chose Iggy because, well, he was available and they didn't want to spend a lot of time or money picking a new leader. Their policies are a disaster, if they exist at all, their party organization is a shambles, and they still lag badly behind the Tories in financing. They need a few years of clear space to get their act togehter.

    As I see it they have two options. One, they can tank the election so badly next time out that the Tories form a majority. Somehow, I don't see them adopting such a strategy. Second, short of that, if the Tories only win another minority in the next election, they have to buy themselves three years of peace in order to rebuild themselves. That means for three years they're going to have to roll over and play dead, without giving the government an excuse to seek an earlier election.

    In practice, the latter option means not threatening to bring down the government every fall (Iggy, that means you). It means trying to work with government bills to make them better, rather than just summarily rejecting them, thus making it hard for the government to argue that they need an election and getting yourself some credit in the process (Iggy, that means you should have stood up for your immigration critic on the Tory's immigration bill - he spend months trying to craft a compromise only to have the Liberal caucus dump it, so that the NDP ended up getting credit for crafting a compromise with the Tories). And during this time, your senior people (like Rae or Desanj)shouldn't be using their time to spar with minister in the house - that's the job of your junior trouble-makers (a-la-rat pack). They should be out roaming the country-side doing recruitment drives and fundraisers for local riding associations or tryign to craft intelligent policies (and trying to sell them to the public).

    But so long as the grits are planning for an election next month or next fall, none of this is going to happen, and they're going to continue on living in this groundhog day type existence.

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  38. Second, short of that, if the Tories only win another minority in the next election, they have to buy themselves three years of peace in order to rebuild themselves.

    Or three to four years of coalition.

    Right now that is really close.

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  39. Shadow,

    "It might be personally uncomfortable for you but the right wing of the Liberal party is a rump. Its maybe 20%."

    I see blue herring time is upon us again...you know very well Shadow that what's important is not the actual size of the right-wing "rump" but what it represents, namely, the fact that the Liberals are a centrist party. You also know perfectly well that that demographic in the voting population is much more substantial and is absolutely required to form government.

    Yeah, right, kick them all out and move to the left. Have you put in a name change? You sound like you're about to adopt the last name of Dion.

    "You want generational change ? Go with Trudeau. Redefine and rebuild under a Harper majority."

    Again, you know that's not on for a number of reasons: a) Justin needs more seasoning; b) it's not his "time" yet and c) the West is not yet ready for another Trudeau at the helm of the Liberal Party.

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  40. Ronald:
    I see blue herring time is upon us again.

    Oh it's just more of his standard Attack politics thinly disguised as advice. Note that he ends up with a request for a Harper majority??

    The worst Govt in history and he wants to give them absolute power?? Do that and this country as we know it goes down the tubes and becomes a severely warped version of the USA !! NO I say !!

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  41. Ron you win elections with a base. Cultivating the Liberal base and brand is more important than having a thin veneer of centerism from an essentially left wing party.

    (Ignatieff has erased any claim to that right rump of his party anyways when he went against John Manley and endorsed the NDP's line against corporate tax cuts.)

    The old, pan-Canada, big tent, natural governing party is dead. Parties with actual brands and identities have stolen Liberal ridings, be it the BQ, NDP, or CPC.

    The strength of the Liberal parties is in the big cities right now. Instead of fighting that with rural tours and outreach a winning strategy is to embrace it.

    Trudeau isn't seasoned enough ?

    At the end of a CPC majority he'll look plenty seasoned. Besides, its his relative youth that's appealing. That's what will win back the youth vote from the NDP/Greens.

    The West isn't ready ?

    Trudeau is considered something of a native son of BC. He'd do very well on the island/lower mainland.

    In Alberta with the new seats some ridings with a younger, more ethnic profile might be open to him.


    Honestly though i'm not expecting the Liberals to come to their sense and rebuild for a new generation. It'll be the coalition and when that fails a merger.

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  42. Again, if you create a scatterplot of all the poll results, it's this Liberal number at 29 that looks out of place, not the 23 Ekos gave us earlier.

    I find a scatterplot really does aid with visualisation.

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  43. A new AR poll

    CPC - 36
    Liberal - 27
    NDP - 20
    Bloc 10
    Green -7

    http://www.visioncritical.com/2010/07/harper-not-most-popular-politician-but-canadians-want-him-as-pm/

    The 10 point gap between CPC and Liberals is becoming the Norm. The Less than 10 pt gap between Liberal and NDP is becoming the norm.


    Approval and Momentum

    Harper’s approval rating stands at 31 per cent, tied with NDP leader Jack Layton. However, almost half of Canadians (48%) disapprove of the way Harper is doing his job, while only one-in-three (32%) feel the same way about Layton.

    Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff remains highly unpopular. Just 14 per cent of respondents approve of the way he is handling his duties, while a majority (53%) voice disapproval.

    Ignatieff continues to post the worst momentum score, this time of -24, meaning that while five per cent of respondents now have a better opinion of him, 29 per cent of Canadians now have a worse impression. Harper’s momentum is -21, while Layton fares much better than his two rivals at -3

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  44. If Manitoba were simply to eliminate their PST, that would effectively harmonize the sales taxes (like in Alberta).

    ReplyDelete

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