Thursday, July 22, 2010

New EKOS Poll: 5.8-pt CPC Lead (down 0.5)

EKOS is up with its bi-weekly poll. But they make us wait for two weeks for nothing much. However, the Conservatives are showing a lack of life, possibly due to the ridiculous situation with the census. We'll have to see how things progress in the next few weeks. But first...Compared to EKOS's last two-week poll earlier this month, the Conservatives are virtually unchanged. They've gained 0.1 points to reach 32.2%. The Liberals are up 0.6 points to 26.4%, while the New Democrats are down 1.1 points to 16.4%.

The Greens are down 0.2 to 11.9% and the Bloc Québécois is up 0.4 to 10.1%.

At the national level, the Conservatives dominate among men with 36.8% to the Liberals' 24.4%. But among females the Liberals are actually ahead with 28.4% to the Conservatives' 27.7%. The Liberals are also showing life among those under the age of 45, as they lead that group. The Conservatives lead among those over the age of 45.

EKOS also broke down their two-week poll by those two weeks. From July 7 to 13 the Conservatives led with 31.6% to the Liberals' 27.5%, followed by the NDP at 14.7%. In the week of July 14 to 20, however, the Conservatives increased their support slightly to 32.4% while the Liberals dropped to 25.5%. The NDP jumped up to 18.4%.

For the entire two week period, the Conservatives lead in Ontario with 34.9%, unchanged from EKOS's last poll. The Liberals are up one to 32.6% while the NDP is down two to 16.4%. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 39.5% (compared to 31.1% for the Tories) while the Conservatives lead in Ottawa with 37.6% (compared to 33.7% for the Liberals).

In Quebec, the Bloc is up one to 39.5%, followed by the Liberals at 22.3% (up one) and the Conservatives at 15.9% (also up one). The NDP is down two to 11.4%. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 40.6%, followed by the Liberals at 21.8%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are down five points to 30.4%. The NDP is up five to 28.7% and the Liberals are up four to 23.5%. The Greens are down four to 13.3%. The Conservatives lead in Vancouver with 39.4%, followed by the Liberals at 25.4%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 36.9% while the Conservatives lead in Alberta with 55.9%. There's been some movement in the Prairies, with the Conservatives up 12 to 49.3% and the Liberals down seven to 16.2%.

The Conservatives win 65 seats in the West and North, 48 seats in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 128.

The Liberals win 15 seats in the West and North, 43 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 21 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94.

The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 15 seats in the West, 15 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 2 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 34.

Things are pretty much stuck. Overall the Liberals did see a gain but their lower number was in the most recent week. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next two weeks as the Liberal Express bus tour continues and the census issue becomes more embarrassing for the Conservatives.