Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Gap closes between NDP and PC in Manitoba

Probe Research released a poll on the provincial situation in Manitoba. While there hasn't been a lot of movement since their last poll in March, the race is getting heated. Nevertheless, ThreeHundredEight's new projection model shows a majority government.Premier Greg Selinger's New Democrats stand at 41%, down one point from March. The Progressive Conservatives under leader Hugh McFayden are at 40%, up one from March. The gap has closed to a statistically insignificant margin.

The Liberals, under Jon Gerrard, are at 13%, up two points. The other parties, the Greens foremost among them, stand at 6% (down two).

The NDP nevertheless holds the lead in Winnipeg with 45%, compared to 36% for the Progressive Conservatives and 13% for the Liberals. But it is the PCs who lead in the rest of Manitoba, with 46% to the NDP's 34%. The Liberals, here, are also at 13%.

The NDP leads in most sectors of the provincial capital, though the Progressive Conservatives are ahead in northwest Winnipeg.

I've put together a projection model for Manitoba, and with this poll the New Democrats would be returned to government with 31 seats.

The Progressive Conservatives would win 25, while the Liberals would elect only one MLA.

Probe Research also looked into which issues were most important for NDP and PC supporters. The results read like a stereotype of right vs. left.

The top three issues for NDP supporters were health care (50%), infrastructure (48%), and the environment (47%).

The top three issues for PC supporters were taxes (47%), crime (42%), and jobs/economy (42%).

That probably indicates what the next election, to be held in 2011, will be about. It looks like it will be tough for Selinger to win his first general election, though he does currently hold the advantage.


  1. Gun Registry Key To Tory Majority:

  2. If I were Éric I'd be annoyed having these federal issues pop up in the discussions under Provincial posts.

    I wonder how Éric feels.

    I did enjoy the link, though.

  3. Éric est un bon gars. He seems to promote discussion over rigid protocol structure. I, for one, am grateful.

  4. I am assuming the lone Liberal seat is that of River Heights. That is the riding of Manitoba Liberal Leader Dr. Jon Gerrard. He will continue to hold that seat, as long as he wishes to represent River Heights, he is very well regarded there.

    River Heights also overlaps, the riding of the lone Liberal MP, in Manitoba, Anita Neville, who represents Winnipeg South Centre, which was also represented by Lloyd Axworthy.

    Kevin Lamoureux, has made the leap to federal politics, and he has won the Liberal nomination to run in Winnipeg North. That is the seat that Judy Alphabet, held for the NDP. She is now running for the Mayor of Winnipeg, and our municipal election is in October. There was a poll out last week in the Free Press, and Judy Alphabet was trailing current mayor Sam Katz.

    Kevin Lamoureux old provincial seat of Inkster will most likely fall to the NDP, provincially. Kevin Lamoureux, held it as long as he did for the Liberals because he is personally popular in that riding, and very well respected. He is in an uphill battle for the Federal riding of Winnipeg North, but if anyone can pull off an upset it will be Kevin Lamoureux. He is an excellent campaigner, and has a very good electoral organization.

    The model shows the PCs picking up six seats, and I will assume that they will be some of the south and West suburban Winnipeg seats that they lost in the last two elections to the NDP, such as St. Norbert, Riel, South-dale, and Kirk-field Park.

    The PCs completely dominate in rural Manitoba, and there will be no change in those riding's.

    The NDP, dominate Northern Manitoba, and there will be no change in those seats.

    The election will be won or lost in Winnipeg.

    If the PCs start to pick up some more steam in Winnipeg, they could potentially take back government.

    Greg Selinger, will have a tough battle, because he is not as charismatic, or as popular as Gary Doer. He is kind of wooden and stiff, and not a natural campaigner, like Gary Doer was.

    There might also be a mood for change setting in, as the NDP, has been in office since 1999.

    No politician in Manitoba is touching the HST. We don't have one in Manitoba, and if Greg Selinger, or PC, leader Hugh Mcfadyen were to propose one, they would go down in flames. People here do not want the HST at all, even if business does.

    Of course Selinger or Mcfadyen, could always say there will be no HST, and then after they are safely ensconced in office, introduce one anyway. But they will serve one term only. Any politician that proposes to add 12% to the heating bill of the average Manitoban will earn their enmity forever.

  5. The fact that Selinger's NDP is even with the PCs isn't a good sign for him. What he has going for him is the fact that Manitoba's electoral districts are so well positioned for the NDP that it's near-gerrymander, much like how northern England gives Labour such a boost.

    Interesting times, I guess.

  6. Manitoba needs an HST.

    They're simply not going to be as competitive without one.

    The experience of the Atlantic provinces is that nobody really gets as angry if you reduce the overall rate at the same time.

    Also a good idea is to WAIT A YEAR before even mentioning it! The experience with BC is that people felt lied to when it came in so soon after an election in which nobody mentioned it.

  7. Hello Ira:

    I look to 308 for some back and forth on the issues both federal and provincial. I don't know much about Manitoba politics, although I've learned some from 49. I post what I think might be of interest or in the case of the HST anything that is relevant to the fight against it.

    I hope they succeed in BC even if it means an NDP government. As 49 said taxing heating fuel is wrong. So is taxing electricity and gasoline. Why not tax EVERYTHING, including food? Sales taxes are nefarious as they tax the same dollar over and over again.

    Yes a lower rate of HST would better than what we have now but not as good as no HST!!!

    regards, Earl

  8. Shadow if we are going to have an HST then by all means tax small meals out and newspapers and books and drop the rate!

    The tax should not be a tax on taxes however nor should it be on what we call necessities. Exempt, electricity, heat, and motor vehicle fuel. Sales taxes are bad taxes! I'll be moving to Alberta in the next 5 years so that will no longer be a concern. I feel for badly those left behind.

    As for your idea of waiting a year to introduce the HST, that's WRONG. If a party wants to make the case for the HST we should have a referendum on it. Or at least an election campaign where someone fights for something they believe in. What's wrong with politics in Canada is that politicians assume people are dumb. They don't explain policies and are not honest with people about what they plan to do.

    Had Dion come out with his Green Shift and shown Canadians that for virtually everyone it was revenue neutral he might have been able to sell it. Truth was it wasn't revenue neutral, as large parts of the revenue were going to go to social programs and green energy experiments. Dion and the Liberals left themselves open to Harper's attacks because what they did (had they won) wasn't what they said they were going to do.

    McGuinty never said a word about an HST, Campbell and Hanson denied it was on the agenda leaving people correctly believing that BC would not be getting the HST. Politicians should try being truthful with people and not trying to deceive them by working around issues so that they can later say - "Well I never said that".

  9. "Manitoba needs an HST"

    Manitoba will decide what we need and do not need, and the people who have to live here are well capable to make their own decisions, and we do not need people from other provinces telling us what is good for us or in our own best interest.

    We also do need Ottawa, telling us what to do with our tax system, and offering our provincial government bribes to shove the HST down our throat, when people heres have mad it abundantly clear that we do not want the HST.

    It is all fine and dandy for someone from British Columbia, to say we need an HST, when it will be applied to our heating, and electrical bills, and you do not have anywhere near the winters that we have in Manitoba.

    We have very cold winters with -30 to -35 degrees Celsius being the norm day and night for a good part of our winter. Heating is not something that is a luxury for us, it is a necessity, and it is impossible to conserve in the winter or you would freeze to death.

    People also have to plug their cars in the winter, or they would not start for you in the morning when you have to go to work, so electricity is also not a luxury or something you can conserve in winter.

    Tell me, how many winter nights in BC, does the average person there even have to plug their car in, or even have -35 Celsius weather in the winter??

    If a Provincial government in Manitoba were to ever introduce an HST, they would be signing their own death warrant.

  10. The Mess That Is Ontario Hydro:

    Where personal ambition gets in the way of good policy. I suspect that Mr. McGuinty wanted to be remembered as being a Premier who was forward looking and left a legacy of prosperity. In reality it looks as if he will be remembered as the Premier who turned out the lights on Ontario's industrial sector. The author says ON now has the highest power rates in Canada save for PEI. That is without the added punishment of the HST. A great read!

  11. I like sales taxes. What I don't like is taxing my money when I spend it after it's already been taxed when I earned it.

    If BC had lowered income taxes when it brought in the HST I'd probably support it.

    I also like sales taxes because people hate them. People should hate their taxes - I want people to be aware of their taxes and constantly be anoyed they have to pay them. That will help create the political will to reduce the overall tax burden (and make that a persistent priority for Canadians, like Health Care). As long as paying taxes is easy, passive, and largely hidden from view, the people are going to be more willing to do it.

  12. 49 steps you aware that in areas outside the island, the lower mainland, and the north coast British Columbia can have very cold winters too ? Not everybody lives in Vancouver ...

    Manitoba doesn't get to decide what it needs or doesn't need.

    It needs the HST. Period. That's a statement about objective reality.

    Manitoba can decide how it will ACT. It can either act in its own self interest or it won't.

    And have you not been reading anything i've posted about this topic ?

    If the overall rate is dropped by 2% then outside the previously exempt items EVERYTHING IS CHEAPER.

    Its possible to set up an HST where the average family doesn't pay a dime more from their monthly budget or even comes out ahead.

  13. To be brutally honest Shadow, I can't say I pay much attention to anything you post.

    You think the HST, is a great idea, and the province you live in has the HST, and a carbon tax, so enjoy.

  14. Shadow 49 doesn't need to read your rubbish to decide that the HST is a bad idea. If the HST only covered the things that the PST did we'd be fine. Truth is it doesn't and despite a cut in the provincial income tax rate most us will end up paying more taxes. On top of that our cost of living goes up because guess what, those savings business realized, don't get passed along. Combine extra taxes with a one percent increase in the cost of living for perpetuity and you have the average family taking it in the neck AGAIN.

    I'm pleased for you and Ira that you like the HST. Most of us don't!!!

  15. 49 steps if you don't pay attention to my posts please don't respond to them with long statements, its very contradictory behaviour.

    I have no use for the carbon tax and wish to see it repealed. The HST is fine, only the economically illiterate would object to it.

    The only possible valid objection to it is, as Earl pointed out, a 1 percent increase in the cost of living.

    Simple solution = decrease HST by 1 to 2 points. Completely neutral. No cost of living increase!

  16. Earl its not the HST you object to.

    Time and time again you've made it clear that your ocmplaint is with how its being implimented!

    You admit that there are savings to be had for bussiness by eliminating the ridiculous duplicate filings and paperwork to provincial and then federal authorities.

    Why on earth would you support such duplication ?

    It is 100% possible to have an HST that continues to exempt certain things. That was up to the premiers.

    Please get this right. Its HIGHER TAXES you're objecting to. Not harmonization.

    When you say you object to the HST people think you actually support waste, duplication, lost productivity, and the higher prices/less jobs/lower standards of living that come with it !


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