Did anyone else go through poll withdrawal? Well, thank the good Graves because EKOS is here to give us a sweet, sweet hit. And it has a few surprises.This poll was taken over two weeks, rather than over one week as is usually the case. However, EKOS is providing the details of the weekly results, along with the full two-week results. As those latter results are given in more detail, those are the ones I will be using for the projection.
Compared to EKOS's last poll two weeks ago, 32.1% is a modest 1.1 gain for the Conservatives. The Liberals have dropped 1.9 points to 25.8%, while the New Democrats are up a full point to 17.5%.
That Liberal result is below their 2008 electoral result.
The Greens are down 0.8 points to 12.2% and the Bloc Québécois is up 0.4 points to 9.7%.
But this poll is far more interesting when we look at the weekly results. In the first week of polling, right in the middle of the G20 summit, the Conservatives were down to 30.6%, compared to 26.2% for the Liberals. But in the second week of polling, the Conservatives jumped to 34.4% and the Liberals sank to a woeful 23.9%. This is a bit of a surprise, as I frankly expected the Liberals to close the gap in the wake of the summit.
Back to the two-week results, the Conservatives are up three points in Ontario, of all places, and lead with 34.6%. The Liberals are down three to 32%, while the NDP is steady at 18.1%. The Tories lead in Toronto (!) with 40% (up six), while the Liberals are down three to 34.3%. However, the Liberals are ahead in Ottawa with 36.7%.
In Quebec, the Bloc is steady with 39.4%, followed by the Liberals at 20.9% (up two). The Conservatives and NDP are steady at 15.1% and 12.8%, respectively. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 37.8%.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up eight to 34.6%. The NDP is up two to 23.7%, while the Liberals are down nine to 20.0%. The Greens are down two to 16.7%. The Conservatives lead in Vancouver with 35.3%.
The Liberals barely lead in Atlantic Canada with 35.2%, despite the wonky second-result giving the NDP 42%! The Conservatives lead in Alberta with 57% and also in the Prairies. They are at 37.4% there, but that is down eight points. The NDP picked up those points, and is at 25.5%.
Looking at the demographic breakdown, we see that the Conservatives lead among males, with a ten-point spread between them and the Liberals. But the spread is reduced to two points among females.
The Conservatives win 69 seats in the West, 47 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 131.
The Liberals win 13 seats in the West and North, 41 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 87.
The Bloc wins 54 seats in Quebec.
The NDP wins 13 seats in the West and North, 18 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 36.
Now, I know what you're thinking. Worse-than-Dion and the Liberals make gains?! Well, yes. Compared to 2008, the Liberals are only down 0.4 points (or 2% of their 2008 result). But the NDP is down 0.7 points (or 4% of their support) and the Conservatives are down 5.5 points (or 15% of their support). Looking at it this way, this bad Liberal result is, comparatively, better than the results of their two main competitors.
But what if we take last week's polling results, where the Liberals were at only 23.9%?
In that case, the Conservatives (who are still down from 2008) win 143 seats, compared to 73 for the Liberals, 53 for the Bloc, and 39 for the NDP. The fact of the matter is that the spread between the Tories and Liberals in that poll is almost identical to the spread in the 2008 election. Simply put, you aren't winning a majority with 34%.
But that the Liberals polled so low in the more recent poll makes EKOS's next poll, which we can expect on the 22nd, will be eagerly awaited. Will the Liberals stay below 24% over the next two weeks?