April 2016 federal and provincial polling averages

Six months after the 2015 federal election, six national polls were conducted during the month of April, surveying a total of just over 15,000 Canadians. The Liberals continue to lead by a wide margin, picking up a little support after dropping back in March.

The Liberals averaged 47.4 per cent support in April, up 2.4 points from where they were in March.

The Conservatives followed with 28.1 per cent, down 2.4 points, while the New Democrats were up one point to 14.1 per cent.

The Greens averaged 4.9 per cent, down 0.6 points, and the Bloc Québécois was down 0.1 point to 4.3 per cent. Another 2 per cent said they supported another party.

The Liberals led in British Columbia with 45.4 per cent, down two points from March but good enough to win 26 to 38 seats in the province. The Conservatives were up 1.4 points to 27 per cent, and would win between two and 12 seats. The New Democrats were up 0.7 points to 16.5 per cent, and were up to a projected one to four seats. The Greens were up 0.6 points to 10.5 per cent, and would win one or two seats.

In Alberta, the Conservatives dropped 5.8 points to 52.9 per cent, and slid down significantly to between 23 and 28 projected seats. The Liberals were up 5.5 points to their best numbers since November, with 33.5 per cent. They could win six to 10 seats with that level of support. The New Democrats were up 2.3 points to 8.9 per cent, and could be shut out or win one seat. The Greens were down 1.3 points to 2.7 per cent.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba have been remarkably stable since the election, with the Conservatives averaging between 38 and 41 per cent and the Liberals between 39 and 43 per cent. In April, the Conservatives were down 0.7 points to 40.1%, followed by the Liberals at 39.7 per cent (down 1.1 points). The Conservatives would win 17 to 19 seats with that level of support, and the Liberals between nine and 11 seats. The New Democrats were up 2.4 points to 13.7 per cent, followed by the Greens at 5.7 per cent (down 0.3 points).

The Liberals made their biggest gain in Ontario, where they were up 6.8 points to 53.5 per cent, their best showing since November. The Conservatives were down 6.4 points to 29 per cent, their worst since November. The New Democrats were down 0.6 points to 12 per cent. Seat-wise, this would give the Liberals between 96 and 116 seats, a big increase since March. The Conservatives would win between five and 22 seats, and the New Democrats zero to three. The Greens were down 0.1 point to 4.4 per cent.

The Liberals also led in Quebec with 45.6 per cent, down 0.6 points from last month but good enough for 60 to 70 seats. The New Democrats trailed at length with 17.7 per cent, down 0.2 points, with the Bloc Québécois at 17 per cent (down 0.5 points) and the Conservatives at 15 per cent (up 1.5 points). The Greens were down a point to 2.8 per cent.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals were up 0.9 points to 60.8 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 19.2 per cent (down 0.7 points), the NDP at 13.4 per cent (up 2.1 points), and the Greens at 5.9 per cent (down 0.6 points). This would give the Liberals 29 to 32 seats, the Conservatives up to two, and the NDP up to one.

This all adds up to between 229 and 280 seats for the Liberals, up about 20 seats from the March projection.

The Conservatives would take between 55 and 96 seats, down about 20 seats, while the New Democrats were up a couple seats to between one and 10.

The Greens would win between one and two seats and the Bloc between zero and four.

The Liberals are still comfortably over the majority mark, even at the 95 per cent confidence interval. April was their best month since November.

The Conservatives are still running below their 2015 result, while the New Democrats continue to struggle to register enough support to guarantee official party status.

So the Liberals are still riding high, six months after their majority victory in October 2015. And much of that new support has come at the expense of the New Democrats. But unlike last month, we now know that the NDP will have a new leader come 2019. Whoever it will be, the goal is simple — get those New Democrats parking their vote with the Liberals back.

Provincial polling averages

It was a busy month in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where provincial elections were held. Elsewhere, though, only one poll was conducted in Ontario, Quebec, and in each of the Atlantic provinces.

Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party won the Saskatchewan election with 62.4 per cent of the vote, with Cam Broten's New Democrats taking 30.2 per cent. Broten has since stepped down as leader. The polls had averaged 61 to 30 per cent support in April before the vote was held.

In Manitoba, the Progressive Conservatives under Brian Pallister won a big victory with 53 per cent of the vote, ousting Greg Selinger's New Democrats, who took 25.7 per cent. The Liberals won 14.5 per cent of the vote. Prior to the vote, the PCs had averaged 50 per cent in Manitoba, the NDP 25 per cent, and the Liberals 17 per cent.

Patrick Brown's Progressive Conservatives led in Ontario with 39 per cent, followed by the governing Liberals under Kathleen Wynne with 34 per cent. That was the best result the Liberals have managed in Ontario since November. Andrea Horwath's New Democrats were down to 21 per cent, their lowest since February 2015.

In Quebec, Philippe Couillard's Liberals were at 33 per cent, followed by the newly-leaderless Parti Québécois at 26 per cent — their worst since February 2015. François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec was up to 25 per cent, its best since March 2015, while Françoise David's Québec Solidaire was at 14 per cent.

The Liberals under Brian Gallant in New Brunswick led with 51 per cent, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 28 per cent, Dominic Cardy's New Democrats at 11 per cent, and David Coon's Greens at 9 per cent.

Stephen McNeil's Liberals led in Nova Scotia with 59 per cent, with Gary Burrill's New Democrats at 20 per cent and Jamie Baillie's PCs at 17 per cent.

The Liberals in Prince Edward Island under Wade MacLauchlan were at their highest level of support since before January 2010 with 69 per cent, followed by the PCs at 17 per cent and the Greens under Peter Bevan-Baker at 9 per cent.

There was dramatic movement in Newfoundland and Labrador following the province's recent traumatic budget, but it is worth noting that the only poll in the province last month came from MQO Research, and not from the Corporate Research Associates. So it could be an apples to oranges comparison. Nevertheless, Dwight Ball's Liberals plummeted to 37 per cent, their worst level of support in a poll from that province since May 2013. The New Democrats under Earle McCurdy were at their highest level since August 2013 with 31 per cent, while Paul Davis's PCs were at 30 per cent.

March 2016 federal and provincial polling averages (updated)

An update to this post was made on April 15, for two reasons. Firstly, the original post failed to include a poll by the Innovative Research Group that had been conducted in March. Secondly, there was an error made in how the maximum seat projection ranges have been calculated since the election. Edits have been made throughout the text and the graphics have been updated as well.

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Federal polling picked up a little in March, with five national and one Quebec poll being conducted and published throughout the month. In total, over 10,000 Canadians were sampled, and the numbers continue to show robust support for the Liberals.

The Liberals led in March with an average of 45 per cent support, down four points from February. But they are down only 0.2 points from January and 1.2 points from December.

As February had only two national polls, it would perhaps be unwise to draw too many conclusions from a comparison to that month. It might be more accurate to say the Liberals are down slightly from where they were in December and January. It is also their lowest result since the election.

The Conservatives averaged 30.5 per cent support, up one point from February and 2.1 points from January. This was their best score since the election.

The New Democrats were at 13.1 per cent, up 0.6 points from February but down 3.2 points from January — and 6.6 points since the October vote.

The Greens were at 5.5 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 4.4 per cent, steady numbers since the election. Another 1.5 per cent, on average, said they would support another party or independent candidate.

I won't make any direct comparisons to the regional results in February, as the two polls from that month would have still had very small combined regional sample sizes.

The Liberals led in British Columbia with 47.4 per cent support, a second consecutive month of increase putting the party back where it was in the aftermath of the election. The Conservatives have been wobbling back and forth, and averaged 25.6 per cent in the province. The New Democrats were down again, falling to 15.8 per cent. The Greens were at 9.9 per cent.

This would likely deliver between 29 and 38 seats to the Liberals, with the Conservatives winning between two and 11 and the New Democrats and Greens only one apiece. That is a decrease from last month for both the Conservatives and NDP, and a gain for the Liberals.

In Alberta, the Conservatives continued to lead with 58.7 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 28 per cent, the NDP at 6.6 per cent, and the Greens at 4 per cent. This would likely deliver 29 to 31 seats to the Conservatives and three to five seats to the Liberals.

The close race in the Prairies continued, with the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 40.8 per cent, enough to give the Conservatives 17 to 19 seats and the Liberals between nine and 11. The NDP was at 11.3 per cent and the Greens at 6 per cent.

The Liberals dropped to a post-election low in Ontario to 46.7 per cent, dropping them to 75 to 93 seats in the projection. The Conservatives were up to one of their highest level of support since the election with 35.4 per cent, enough to give them 27 to 43 seats. The New Democrats were at 12.6 per cent (one to five seats), and the Greens were at 4.5 per cent.

The Liberals were down 4.1 points in Quebec from February (there were three polls in the province that month) to 46.2 per cent, but that would still give them almost all of the province's 78 seats with 63 to 73. The NDP was up 0.6 points to 17.9 per cent, but that would likely only win them one seat. The Bloc Québécois was up 2.8 points to 17.5 per cent (zero to five seats), while the Conservatives were down 0.2 points to 13.5 per cent. That would likely give them five to nine seats. The Greens were at 3.8 per cent.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberal voted oscillated back down to 59.9 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 19.9 per cent, the NDP at 11.3 per cent, and the Greens at 6.5 per cent. This would likely give the Liberals 29 to 32 seats and the Conservatives zero to three seats.

Altogether, the Liberals would likely have won between 211 and 255 seats in an election held in March, well above the 184 seats they won in the election.

The Conservatives would have won between 80 and 116 seats, straddling the 99 seats they won in the October vote.

The New Democrats would win between two and seven seats, well down from the 44 they currently have.

The Greens would have retained their one seat, while the Bloc Québécois would have won between zero and five seats, an improvement over the projected shutout in February.

The maximum ranges take into account big polling and projection misses. But they might also be a good proxy for the impact of a campaign.

In 2015, when the one-election model was in use, the Conservatives began the campaign on August 2 with a projected maximum range of between 83 and 189 seats — so it did envision their eventual outcome.

For the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc, however, it took until October for the maximum ranges to extend to where the parties eventually wound up. So I think it is fair to say the maximum ranges give a window of what two to three weeks of campaigning could do to the polls. In that sense, they give an indication of what outcomes we might expect if we were in the early stages of a campaign.

The maximum ranges currently give the Liberals anything between a huge majority and a very slim ones. The Conservatives would almost certainly finish second.

The New Democrats could best hope to win 16 seats while the Bloc still could not achieve official party status (9 seats), or be shut out (the NDP too).

I had made an error with the earlier projections, as after the election I had forgotten to re-classify the parties. That is why the Liberal lower end was so low — they were being treated like a third party, not like the governing party.

With the chart now corrected, you can see that the Liberals have not been in a position since the election that would put their majority government in doubt. And only in January did the NDP have an outside chance of finishing in second place.

Provincial polling averages

It was a busy month at the provincial level, with new polls in every province but British Columbia.

In Alberta, Wildrose led with 34 per cent, followed by the New Democrats at 27 per cent, the Progressive Conservatives at 25 per cent, the Liberals at 8 per cent, and the Alberta Party at 4 per cent. Though Rachel Notley's governing NDP is back in second, they have been on a pretty consistent slide since the summer.

The March polling in Saskatchewan averaged 57.1 per cent for Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party, 32 per cent for the NDP, and 6.4 per cent for the Liberals. The result of the election on April 4, however, was 62.6 per cent for Wall's party and 30.4 per cent for Cam Broten's NDP.

The campaign continues in Manitoba and we have already seen some polls conducted in April. But in March, the Progressive Conservatives averaged 44.8 per cent, followed by the NDP at 24.8 per cent and the Liberals at 23 per cent. It was the first time the New Democrats were in second since last summer.

One poll in Ontario showed continued stability in the province, with Patrick Brown's PCs ahead with 40 per cent to 30 per cent for the Liberals and 24 per cent for the NDP.

In Quebec, the Liberals fell to 32.5 per cent, giving new support to the Coalition Avenir Québec, which was up to 23 per cent. The Parti Québécois was steady at 30 per cent, while Québec Solidaire stood at 10.5 per cent.

The Liberals dropped in New Brunswick to 45 per cent support, followed by the PCs at 27 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent, and the Greens at 8 per cent.

In Nova Scotia, the Liberals were down to 56 per cent, with the PCs up to 23 per cent and the NDP falling to third place to 16 per cent support.

It was steady sailing in Prince Edward Island, wit the Liberals at 61 per cent, the Progressive Conservatives at 19 per cent, and the Greens at 11 per cent.

And in Newfoundland and Labrador, the post-election honeymoon is on with Dwight Ball's Liberals, who were up to 66 per cent. The PCs were at 23 per cent and the NDP at 11 per cent.

Week in Polls: Provincial Liberals lead throughout Atlantic Canada; Trudeau still tops for PM

The latest quarterly numbers from the Corporate Research Associates for Atlantic Canada are out, and they show the Liberals, which govern in each province in the region, still leading by wide margins.

Starting in Nova Scotia, the Liberals led there with 56 per cent support, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 23 per cent, the New Democrats at 16 per cent, and the Greens at 5 per cent.

Compared to CRA's last poll three months ago, this represents a drop of eight points for the Liberals and a gain of six points for the PCs. In fact, the Tories are at their highest level of support in CRA's polling since the 2013 provincial election.

Stephen McNeil led on who Nova Scotians prefer to be premier with 41%, followed by Jamie Baillie and Gary Burrill at 15% each (Burrill's numbers were partially split with the former interim NDP leader, Maureen MacDonald).

In New Brunswick, the Liberals were down 10 points to 45 per cent. But that still put them ahead of the PCs, who were up only two points to 27 per cent support. The New Democrats were up six points to 18 per cent, while the Greens were at 8 per cent support.

While this is a big drop for the Liberals, it still puts them above where they were before the federal election last year.

Brian Gallant's numbers on being the preferred premier were down nine points to 30 per cent, followed by Bruce Fitch (interim PC leader) at 19 per cent and Dominic Cardy and David Coon of the NDP and Greens at 10 per cent apiece.

The Liberals were steady in Prince Edward Island, holding at 61 per cent support. The PCs trailed at a distance with 19 per cent, the Greens at 11 per cent. and the NDP at 9 per cent.

Wade MacLauchlin was the preferred premier of 41 per cent of respondents, down seven points. Peter Bevan-Baker of the Greens was second at 22 per cent — meaning his own personal support was more than twice that of his party. Jamie Fox of the PCs and Mike Redmond of the NDP had 13 and 10 per cent support, respectively.

Finally, the Liberals were up to 66 per cent support in Newfoundland and Labrador, after winning the last election there in November with 57 per cent of the vote. The Tories were at 23 per cent and the New Democrats at 11 per cent.

Dwight Ball was the preferred premier of 53 per cent, with Paul Davis at 29 per cent and Earle McCurdy at 8 per cent.

Trudeau still leads by wide margin on preferred PM

The latest Nanos numbers on who Canadians prefer as prime minister continue to show Justin Trudeau way ahead of his rivals. In fact, it doesn't seem like the honeymoon is wearing off, as Trudeau's numbers are as high as they have been since the October election.

Trudeau led with 54 per cent, up almost three points from the last independent four-week sample from Nanos.

Rona Ambrose and Tom Mulcair were down only marginally, to 14 and 11 per cent, respectively. Elizabeth May was at 5 per cent and Rhéal Fortin at just under 1 per cent.

Trump could run table on Tuesday

The next Super Tuesday will see votes in Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina. Donald Trump could win all them, with RealClearPolitics giving him a 2.5-point edge over John Kasich in Ohio, a 15-point edge over Marco Rubio in Florida, a 12-point advantage over Ted Cruz in Illinois, and a 10-point lead over Cruz in North Carolina.

There haven't been any recent polls in Missouri. Cruz won the neighbouring states of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Iowa, while Trump took Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Cruz won his states by an average of 11.4 points over Trump, while Trump prevailed over Cruz in his three states by 6.9 points. Missouri is a state that is more important to Cruz's map than it is to Trump's, so perhaps Cruz gets the nod.

Nationally, Trump leads among Republican voters with 36 per cent, followed by Cruz at 21 per cent, Rubio at 17 per cent, and Kasich at 10 per cent. Compared to when we last checked-in two weeks ago, that is a gain of one point for Trump and Rubio and two points for Cruz and Kasich. Of note, however, is that two weeks ago Ben Carson was in the race with 8 per cent of the vote.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is leading in the four Super Tuesday states with polls by between 20 and 34 points, and Missouri is certainly the kind of state she should win. Bernie Sanders may be cooked by Tuesday night.

Nationally, Clinton is up three points over the last two weeks to 52 per cent, while Sanders is down one to 38 per cent among Democrats.

My CBC articles this week

'Lame duck' U.S. President Barack Obama hits new high in popularity - Compared to what is happening in the presidential nominations, Obama appears to be looking good.

The Pollcast: Can the Saskatchewan NDP make an impact? - The latest episode is with the CBC's Stefani Langenegger. We'll have mini-podcasts every week with Stefani on the Saskatchewan election.

Brad Wall continues to lead in new Saskatchewan polls - My latest analysis on the state of the race in Saskatchewan, with a look at the new polls this week from Forum and Mainstreet.

Marco Rubio's hopes for Republican nomination could be over - After his terrible results this past week, I pronounce Rubio's campaign to be as good as done.

The challenges parties face as Saskatchewan campaign begins - My set-up of the Saskatchewan election campaign.

Liberals favoured in closer PEI race

Prince Edward Island is holding its provincial election on May 4, a day before the vote occurs in Alberta. The PEI campaign has been over-shadowed by the dramatics in the West in polling as well.

The most recent poll (and if the 2011 campaign is any indication, perhaps the last poll) was commissioned by The Guardian and published on Saturday. It comes from the Corporate Research Associates, and shows Wade MacLauchlan's Liberals in a good position to be re-elected.

But at 44%, the Liberals' margin over the Progressive Conservatives has been reduced. The party has fallen 14 points since CRA last polled between February 9-28, though that was before Rob Lantz was named the Tories' new leader.

The PCs were up nine points to 35%, followed by the New Democrats at 15% (+3) and the Greens at 6% (+2).

Of the total sample, 13% was undecided (another 6% refused to answer or said they would not vote).

That 44% is the lowest the PEI Liberals have managed since August 2013, and it is just the third poll since the 2011 election to put the party below 45%. They captured 51% of the vote in October 2011.

For the PCs, this is their best poll since that election, when they took 40%.

The New Democrats appear to have halted their decline, after dropping over six consecutive quarterly polls from 32% in August 2013.

Is MacLauchlan the problem? Probably not. With 38% saying he would make the best premier, that puts him better or equal to where Robert Ghiz stood between June 2012 and February 2014.

It is instead the performance of Lantz, who with 28% jumped 18 points over interim leader Steven Myers's numbers, and is the highest any leader of the PCs has managed since before the 2011 election.

By contrast, the 10% that Mike Redmond scored as leader of the NDP was his worst.

Another poll emerged out of Prince Edward Island recently, coming from Abingdon Research. A B.C.-based firm that works mostly with conservative parties (but says it has no clients in PEI), the poll was passed over by the media. The results are broadly similar to what CRA found.

It put the Liberals at 43%, followed by the Tories at 27%, the NDP at 18%, and the Greens at 12%. The combined score for the parties that were not represented in the legislature (30%) is extraordinarily high.

One big asterisk for this poll is that it was conducted online. PEI is a small province, and building a representative panel for it has got to be tricky.

I have not developed a complete model for the PEI election, due to the province's history of having very little polling. But a generic swing model, taking into account each of the two polls' margin of error (hypothetical, in the case of Abingdon), gives us an idea of what to expect.

It gives us a Liberal majority, though one that could potentially be won by the skin of MacLauchlan's teeth. But that is at the extreme of CRA's margin of error, which puts the two parties virtually in a tie.

With CRA's poll, the Liberals would win between 14 and 24 seats, enough to secure another majority government. The Tories would win between three and 13 seats, setting them up for a slightly better performance than they had in 2011.

Abingdon gives the Liberals a more comfortable edge, with the closest seat count being 19 for the Liberals and eight for the PCs.

Neither poll shows the NDP or Greens with enough strength to win a seat, on paper at least. If the NDP does end up near 18%, I imagine Redmond could secure his seat. The same goes for Peter Bevan-Baker of the Greens, particularly if they take 12% of the vote. New Brunswickers recently showed that a Green leader can be elected even if the party finishes in fourth place, so PEI could do the same.

Barring a dramatic turn in fortunes brought on by the upcoming leaders debates, the Liberals look like they will be returned with a majority government. But there are not a lot of voters that need to be swung in PEI, so hold off on your bets.

Landslide in store for the next province to hit the hustings

A new premier, taking over a party that has a stranglehold on the legislature, will likely seek a mandate of his own this spring. Against him will be a trio of rookie opposition party leaders, who will be going on the hustings for the first time themselves.

The Official Opposition leader will have the least amount of time for voters to get to know him, as the party was the last to fill the slot. And the party has had a very tough time. Since the last election, the caucus has been reduced significantly due to floor-crossing and the departure of its leader, who could no longer sit with her party in the legislature. It's been a whirlwind few years in Charlottetown.

Wait, did you think I was talking about Alberta?

Why no, this political drama has been taking place in Canada's littlest province!

Some background before we get to the latest numbers from Prince Edward Island:

That new premier is Wade MacLauchlan, who was just a few weeks ago named as former premier Robert Ghiz's replacement. His party took 22 of 27 seats in the 2011 provincial election, leaving the Progressive Conservatives under Olive Crane to provide a tiny opposition (to put it into perspective, a similarly sized opposition in the House of Commons would have 57 seats).

The Tories have been in turmoil for most of the last few years. Crane announced she would resign as leader at the end of 2012, and MLA Hal Perry took over Official Opposition duties. But then Steven Myers won the interim leadership in early 2013, and for a confusing few days Perry wanted to stay as opposition leader as Myers ran the party. That didn't last very long, and by the end of the year Perry crossed the floor to the Liberals and Crane was booted out of the party and has been sitting as an independent ever since.

Rob Lantz was named the new leader of the PCs on February 28, and will be one of four rookie leaders in the upcoming campaign. Mike Redmond will be leading the NDP and Peter Bevan-Baker will head up the Greens. In 2011, the leaders of these respective parties had been James Rodd and Sharon Labchuk.

The new poll by Corporate Research Associates shows that the Liberals are doing very well under MacLauchlan (though he was named Liberal leader on February 21, late into CRA's polling dates, nominations closed at the end of January and MacLauchlan was the only candidate). The party led with 58% support, up eight points since CRA's previous survey of Nov. 5-25.

The Progressive Conservatives were up slightly by three points to 26% (their numbers are pre-Lantz), while the NDP and Greens were down three and seven points to 12% and 4%, respectively.

None of these shifts were outside the margin of error.

Nevertheless, this is the best number the Liberals have put up in any poll since August 2011, just before the last election. And this after a period of stability, as the party was polling between 48% and 53% between November 2013 and November 2014. Indeed, with only a few exceptions, the party has barely wavered from the 50% mark since the last vote.

For the Tories, their results are par for the course as the party has been polled at between 23% and 28% since May. It will be interesting to see what effect Lantz has on the numbers. He takes over a party that is in better shape than it was in 2013 and early 2014, when the New Democrats were in second place.

The NDP has been steadily dropping, however, and this latest poll is their worst since February 2012.

The Greens were at an anomalous 11% in November, so the drop of seven points is somewhat exaggerated. Normally, the party polls between 3% and 7%, so they are well-within those levels.

With such a wide lead over the opposition, MacLauchlan would preside over another landslide if an election were held today. He'd likely win 25 seats, with the Tories taking the other two. Again, to put that into perspective, that is the equivalent of a government winning 285 seats in the current 308-seat House of Commons, with the opposition winning the remaining 23.

On who would make the best premier, MacLauchlan was well ahead with 42%, one point up on Ghiz's performance in November and better than any numbers Ghiz managed since the last election. Myers, in his last poll as interim leader, was at just 10%, while Redmond was at 14%. That was a drop of three points and his lowest number as NDP leader.

Prince Edward Islanders seem satisfied with the government, with 44% saying they are completely or mostly satisfied, compared to 30% who are dissatisfied. The remaining 26% aren't sure, an understandably big jump from 8% in November considering the change in leadership.

So MacLauchlan stands a strong chance of securing a mandate of his own when the next election is called. The wildcard will certainly be Lantz, who has a chance to give the Tories a fresh face and a new start. With so few voters in the province to persuade (75,000 in 2011), dramatic swings can easily occur. But the hill may be too high to climb for Lantz in such a short time.

Provincial Liberals still lead throughout Atlantic Canada

The apple does not fall far from the tree. So it goes in Atlantic Canada, where both the federal and provincial Liberal parties are leading by significant margins throughout the region.

The Corporate Research Associates released its Atlantic Quarterly polling results yesterday, showing the Liberals in good position in every province, with the Progressive Conservatives well behind in second and the NDP slipping further into third.

In Prince Edward Island, the Liberals led with 48%, followed by the PCs at 28%, the NDP at 16%, and the Greens at 7%. Though the Liberals and NDP were down by five points each compared to CRA's last poll in May, and the PCs were up five, the shifts were within the margins of error. Of the total sample, 25% were undecided.

This is the lowest the Liberals have registered in PEI since August 2013. For the NDP, it is the worst since February 2012. In fact, they had double the support this time last year. Meanwhile, the PCs have put up their best result since December 2012 and, at 14%, Steven Myers has managed his highest score on who would make the best premier since he took over the party.

Robert Ghiz of the Liberals was still well in front, however, with 36%. Mike Redmond of the NDP was second with 18%. He is polling better than his party.

Satisfaction with the Ghiz government was down slightly, to 52%. Dissatisfaction was unchanged at 41%.

The Liberals are continuing to dominate in Nova Scotia, with 63% support. That is their highest in recent memory, while at 14% the NDP has fallen to its lowest level of support. The PCs, at 20%, have been holding steady. In total, 28% of the sample was undecided.

Stephen McNeil was the choice for premier of 48% of respondents, followed by Jamie Baillie at 19% (his best since the start of the 2013 campaign) and 9% for Maureen MacDonald of the NDP.

61% of Nova Scotians said they were satisfied with the government, with just 24% dissatisfied.

And in Newfoundland and Labrador, after New Brunswick (we looked at the CRA poll for that province on Tuesday) the next province to go to the polls, the Liberals were up to 58%, their highest level of support in years. The PCs were down to 26%, their lowest since August 2013, while the NDP was steady at 15%. Total undecideds numbered 31%.

Dwight Ball remains the favourite for premier, with 40% to 28% for Tom Marshall of the PCs and 13% for Lorraine Michael of the NDP.

Satisfaction with the government was the highest in the region at 62%, while dissatisfaction was just 25%. In the province where the governing party is polling lower than anywhere else in Atlantic Canada, it is odd that satisfaction with the government is so high. Are Newfoundlanders and Labradorians simply done with the PCs, no matter what they do? That could be one interpretation. The other is that the Liberals could take a hit during an election campaign when voters have to decide whether to make a change. The satisfaction numbers (note that they were only 31% a year ago) might point to that, but the Liberals have been winning by-election after by-election in the province.

The boost in support for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada does raise a chicken-or-the-egg question. Are the provincial Liberals popular again thanks to the boost Justin Trudeau has given the federal party, or is the federal party doing well because of the work of its provincial cousins?

A complete coincidence can probably ruled out. Weighted for population, the CRA poll averages out to 55.5% support for Liberal parties throughout the region, with the PCs at 25.4%, the NDP at 14.7%, and the Greens at 4.1%.

The numbers are in fact quite uniform across the four provinces: 46% to 63% for the Liberals, 20% to 31% for the Tories, and 14% to 16% for the NDP.

By comparison, the federal polls conducted over the same time have averaged 52.3% for the Liberals, 23% for the Conservatives, 17.7% for the NDP, and 6.3% for the Greens. That is quite close.

Which brings up another question: while Trudeau has probably played a role in helping boost Liberal fortunes throughout the region, what effect have Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair had?

Is the unpopularity of the federal Conservatives rubbing off on the provincial Tories? It could be a factor, though support for the PCs in Nova Scotia has been low for some time. The PCs in PEI have had internal turmoil and the Tories in Newfoundland and Labrador have been sinking ever since Danny Williams left. The abrupt drop in support for the first-term New Brunswick Tories is a little more difficult to explain.

And what about the NDP? The federal party did lead throughout the region in 2012, relinquishing that lead by early 2013. Similarly, the provincial wings of the NDP saw boosts in support in 2012 but also into 2013, particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador. Internal turmoil, again, might be the root cause of the party's slip there, and the NDP was in government in Nova Scotia, which gave it a different kind of profile.

It seems likely that Trudeau has given the Liberals new momentum that has carried over to the provincial side, helped in part by effective new leaders in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador. The PCs have certainly not been helped by their federal cousins, but their recent slump looks largely of their own making. The NDP was probably boosted by the party's surge in 2011 and 2012, which lingered at the provincial level into 2013, but since then domestic affairs and the drift of the federal party have chipped away at what could have been a breakthrough.

Outside of Atlantic Canada, only Ontario has the same sort of three-party system (plus the Greens) that exists at the federal level, and it is remarkable how closely support is being tracked at both levels of government. It certainly bodes well for the federal Liberals, who have just seen a big provincial victory in Nova Scotia and are on track for other ones in New Brunswick this year and Newfoundland and Labrador next year. A federal near-sweep of the region seems like one of the safest bets to make for 2015.

Provincial Liberals lead throughout Atlantic Canada

The latest quarterly results are in from the Corporate Research Associates, and they show the provincial Liberals leading in every province in Atlantic Canada - and by significant margins.

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The province that most recently went to the polls, Nova Scotia, seems pleased with their new government. Stephen McNeil's Liberals led with 58%, up 12 points from their October election result. Both the Tories and New Democrats fell to 19%. Satisfaction with the government stands at 50%, with 12% dissatisfied and 25% saying it is too soon to tell.

But now let's get to the provinces that are going to the polls next, starting with New Brunswick. Their next election is scheduled to take place less than a year from now.

Brian Gallant's Liberals held steady with 47% support, unchanged from CRA's last poll from three months ago. The governing Tories picked up two points, within the margin of error, to inch ahead of the New Democrats, who were unchanged at 24% support. About 32% of those contacted with undecided, with another 10% refusing to answer.

Gallant was up a single point on being the best person to be premier, to 31%. David Alward was down one point to 18%, while Dominic Cardy of the NDP was unchanged at 15%. If we remove the undecideds from this question, we see that all three leaders are generally polling even with their own parties.

Satisfaction with Alward's government was up one point to 37%, while dissatisfaction was also up one point to 55%.

With these levels of support, Gallant's Liberals would likely win some 40 seats and easily form a majority government. The Tories would be reduced to nine seats while the NDP would pick up six, their best-ever result.

A little more than half of Liberal seats would come in the eastern part of the province, and the party would win the majority of seats in every region. Most of the Tory seats would be drawn from around the Fredericton and Moncton regions, while the NDP would do best in the northeast and around Saint John.

Time is slowly running out for Alward, as the number of months before the next election can be counted on two hands. His party hasn't led in a poll since August 2012, and the fresh-faced Gallant has been trumping him on his personal ratings. It will be interesting to see if Gallant's magic wears off before the province starts tumbling towards the next election in September.

Fortunately for the Progressive Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador, the next election is still two years away. But the Tories are in even more trouble there.

The Liberals picked up 11 points in the last three months, to move into a decisive lead with 52% support (note that this CRA poll has a massive 1,200 sample), a move that is well outside the margin of error. Their gain has come primarily at the expense of the self-destructing New Democrats, who plunged 14 points to just 19% support. The Tories were virtually unchanged, up three points to 29%.

That is a major change of fortunes for the NDP, who were leading in the polls as recently as May of this year. This CRA poll confirms the latest set of numbers we saw from MQO that were done at the end of October, suggesting that this is not just a blip and cannot be completely chalked up to Dwight Ball's leadership victory.

About 25% of the sample was undecided, with another 7% refusing to answer.

CRA helpfully separated their leadership question between those surveyed before and after the Liberal leadership race came to an end. Interim leader Eddie Joyce was seen as the best person to be premier by 30%, a gain of nine points over the August numbers, while Kathy Dunderdale was up five points to 27% and Lorraine Michael was down 16 points (almost half!) to 19%. In this case, Dunderdale was polling ahead of her party and both Joyce and Michael behind theirs.

Once Ball was added to the mix, the Liberal leader's numbers increased to 39%, with Dunderdale and Michael falling slightly to 25% and 18%, respectively. This put them generally in line with where their parties stood, after the removal of the undecideds.

Satisfaction with Dunderdale's government increased by 11 points to 42%, a much-needed boost for them. But this gain came primarily among those who said they were 'mostly' satisfied. Those who were completely satisfied numbered just 4%, roughly equal with the numbers in Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick.

With these levels of support, the Liberals would form a majority government of some 30 seats, virtually all of them coming outside of St. John's. This concentration outside of the city may be a problem with the model as, if the Liberals have this much support, they are probably going to grow disproportionately in the capital, with smaller levels of growth in the rest of Newfoundland. But in the end, it would even out.

The Tories would likely win 11 seats, with the NDP taking advantage of the PCs' weakness to win seven.

These numbers remain disastrous for the Tories, but their time in government might be coming to a natural end after 10 years in power (12 by the next election). For the NDP, however, the opportunity for a major breakthrough in the province has come and gone, and for apparently no good reason. Michael and the NDP were polling well. The decision of a few of her MHA's to try to sabotage her leadership, and then bolt from caucus when the plan went sour, has likely fatally set the party back.

The New Democrats are doing better in Prince Edward Island, however, where they remain in second place (note: the party took just 3% of the vote in 2011). The Liberals picked up seven points, however, to move back to 49% and where Robert Ghiz has been polling for most of his tenure. The NDP was down six points to 26%, while the Tories were down six points to 17%. All of these shifts are within the margin of error (the samples are small). About 29% were undecided, with another 11% refusing to answer.

Ghiz managed 35% on who would make the best premier, a gain of four points. Mike Redmond was second with 25%, while Steven Myers of the Tories was at 12%. These numbers suggest that Ghiz is slightly less popular than his party, and Redmond slightly more. Satisfaction with the government was up eight points to 50%.

The seat model gives the Liberals all 27 seats at these levels of support. This is likely due to the extremely small portion of the vote the NDP took in 2011. I imagine if these numbers were replicated exactly in an election, Redmond and perhaps one or two good NDP candidates would have a good shot at winning. One or two Tory incumbents might also survive the reaping. But that the Liberals would win another landslide is not in doubt.

And, remarkably, that is the case throughout Atlantic Canada. The Liberals averaged 51.5% support in these four provinces, compared to just 22.5% for the PCs and 22% for the New Democrats. These numbers are eerily similar to the federal Liberals' performance in recent polls in the region, and a quick glance at the tracking charts shows that the Liberals all experienced a boost at around the time that Justin Trudeau became the federal leader. Coincidence?

Provincial Liberals up throughout Atlantic Canada

Earlier this week, the Corporate Research Associates released their Atlantic Quarterly polls for all four provinces on the East Coast. The results show gains by the provincial Liberal parties throughout the region, with mixed results for the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives. The polls also show that, with the exception of Prince Edward Island, incumbents are in trouble in every province.

Before we get to the numbers, a few notes on methodology. CRA uses traditional live-callers to put together their polls. They tend to have very large  proportions of undecideds, ranging in these four provinces between 35% and 55%. This means the sample sizes for decided voters tend to be smaller with appropriately larger margins of error.

Also, CRA releases no crosstabs or demographic data, but clients subscribe to the Atlantic Quarterly and so they receive more data than the unwashed masses. It would be preferable if CRA released all of their data relating to political questions, as they are picked up by media throughout the region.

Nova Scotia is the province next slated to go to the polls (either this fall or before June 2014), and the New Democrats are in trouble there. They have dropped six points since CRA's last poll from November, a statistically significant decrease that has put them in a tie with the Progressive Conservatives at 26%. The Liberals were up to 45%, though their gain was just within the margin of error for their results. These are recent record highs and lows for both the Liberals and NDP.

There was a big increase in undecideds, however, from 48% to 55%. That makes the election, whenever it is called, very important. Many voters are still on the fence. Stephen McNeil was the favourite choice for premier by 31%, followed by Darrell Dexter and Jamie Baillie at 18%. Satisfaction with the government stood at 40% to 49% dissatisfaction.

New Brunswick will hold its next election in the fall of 2014, and here too the incumbent government is in trouble. The Tories are down to 29%, while the Liberals were up to 41% under new leader Brian Gallant. The New Democrats were up to 27%. These are recent record highs (Liberals and NDP) and lows (PCs) for all three parties, though none of the shifts are outside the margins of error. Fully 45% of respondents were undecided, unchanged from February-March.

Gallant topped the premier question with 31%, followed by David Alward at 20% and Dominic Cardy of the NDP at 17%. Satisfaction stood at 38%, while dissatisfaction was up to 51%. Satisfaction with the government has been relatively more steady, however, than the PCs' support levels.

Prince Edward Island isn't heading to the polls until 2015. But Robert Ghiz is quite comfortably ahead, with 52% support to 26% for the Progressive Conservatives and 21% for the New Democrats. Here again, the shifts aren't statistically significant, and 41% were undecided.

Ghiz was at 38% for the best person to be premier, followed by Mike Redmond at 15% and Steven Myers at 11%. Satisfaction with the government was at 45%, with dissatisfaction at 51%.

Finally, and most interestingly, is Newfoundland and Labrador. They are also only holding their next election in 2015, but the political landscape is changing. The New Democrats retained a narrow lead with 37%, but the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives swapped places. The Liberals picked up 14 points since February-March and placed a close second with 36%, with the Tories down 11 points to 27%. Worth noting, however, is that the number of undecideds increased by nine points to 35%.

The NDP is still at an all-time high (though slightly down from February-March's numbers), while the Liberals are polling better than they have in quite a while. For the Progressive Conservatives, 27% is a far cry from the 70% (and more) support they were polling at before the 2011 election.

Premier Kathy Dunderdale ranked third among the leaders with 21% choosing her as the best person to be premier, a drop of 11 points. Dwight Ball of the Liberals (interim leader but a candidate to take over) was up seven points to 24%, while Lorraine Michael remained well ahead with 36%.

Satisfaction with the government dropped 13 points to only 32%, while dissatisfaction was up 11 points to 63%. These are astounding numbers: 26% were 'completely dissatisfied', while a year ago that was only at 9%.

In terms of seats, the incumbent governments would be defeated in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador, while the Liberals in Prince Edward Island are safe.

Seat projection based on CRA's polling

In New Brunswick, Gallant's Liberals would win 34 seats and form a majority government, with Alward's Tories pushed to the opposition benches with 13 seats. The New Democrats would win eight.

McNeil's Liberals would win a majority government of 32 seats, with Dexter's NDP winning 11 and the Tories the remaining eight.

The Liberals would sweep Prince Edward Island, winning all 27 seats in the province.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the Progressive Conservatives would be reduced to only seven seats but hold the balance of power in a minority legislature. The New Democrats would win the plurality of seats with 21, taking 13 of the 14 seats in the St. John's Region. The Liberals would win 20 seats, 15 of them in Newfoundland west of the Avalon and Burin peninsulas. How this arrangement would work out is anyone's guess.

Though the samples outside of Newfoundland and Labrador were two small to decisively determine that the Liberals were making real gains, the trends are quite clear. Aside from a small one-point uptick in PEI, the Liberals gained six points or more throughout the region. They are under-going a bit of renewal, with a leadership race underway in Newfoundland and Labrador and Gallant having been named the leader of the NB Liberals last year. Plus, there is the Justin Trudeau factor. It can't be ignored, considering how well the federal party is polling in Atlantic Canada.

The Progressive Conservatives had less clear results, with a big drop in Newfoundland and Labrador, a modest one in New Brunswick, a modest gain in Nova Scotia, and a larger one in Prince Edward Island. The trends are a bit clearer for the New Democrats, who were down everywhere but New Brunswick, where they only gained a point. This is, however, much less tied to the federal scene as the provincial Tories are polling better than their federal counterparts. But just like at the federal level, the region appears to be in major flux.

Provincial Tories drop in Atlantic Canada

The Corporate Research Associates released their quarterly poll results for Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick yesterday. With the poll from Prince Edward Island of last week, all show trouble for the Progressive Conservatives while the New Democrats have made gains.

I wrote about these NDP gains, and what they might mean for the federal party, for The Huffington Post Canada here. But let's take a closer look at the provincial numbers.

We'll start with New Brunswick, which will be holding its next election in 2014. Since CRA was last in the field in November, the Progressive Conservatives have fallen six points to 32%, putting them behind the Liberals, who were down three points to 35%.

This is the lowest the PCs have been since 2008, and the first time the Liberals have been given the lead in a poll since the 2010 provincial election.

The New Democrats were up seven points to 26%, the highest they've been on record. But this is only a small uptick, as the NDP had been between 20% and 23% for much of 2011 and the early part of last year, while they were at 24% as recently as August.

The Greens were up one point to 5%, while support for other parties was unchanged at 1%.

None of these changes of support were outside the margin of error. It has to be pointed out that CRA always has very large "undecided" numbers - in this case 45%. That means that the decided sample is quite small, roughly 220 New Brunswickers. That increases the margin of error to +/- 6.6% for decided voters, from 4.9% for the entire sample. This is the case for PEI (from +/- 5.6% to +/- 7.4%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (from +/- 4.9% to +/- 5.7%) as well.

The margin of error is that of the entire sample for the "Best Premier" and government satisfaction questions, however, since undecideds are included. Brian Gallant, who was named Liberal leader last fall, had the best result on the premier question in New Brunswick: 26% said he was the preferred option. David Alward dropped eight points, outside the margin of error, to 21%, while Dominic Cardy increased to 15%.

Satisfaction with the government fell to 41%, while dissatisfaction was steady at 49% (15% completely dissatisfied).

Despite a deficit in support, the PCs make up for it due to their incumbency advantage. They would win 28 seats, the bare minimum for a majority government, thanks in large part to their support in the northwest and in and around Fredericton and Saint John. The Liberals would win 20 seats, primarily in the northeast and around Moncton, while the New Democrats take seven.

These are using the current boundaries, and not the 49-seat map that is currently under consideration.

Now to Newfoundland and Labrador. The poll from CRA is remarkable in that it is historic for the firm - it is the first time the New Democrats have been placed in the lead.

The PCs and NDP swapped eight points since November, with the New Democrats increasing to 39% and the PCs dropping to 38%. That is outside the margin of error, and represents the lowest Tory number in CRA's polling since undoubtedly before the Danny Williams era (they were at 36% in January's MQO poll, and 35% in June's Environics survey). At 39%, the NDP is at their highest level of support in any poll ever publicly released.

The Liberals dropped one point to 22%, and have been generally stable since the 2011 election. Support for independents was 1%, while the undecided portion was a relatively smaller 26%.

Lorraine Michael is the preferred person for premier, with 33%. Kathy Dunderdale slipped to 32%, while interim leader Dwight Ball was the choice of 17%. Satisfaction with the government tumbled by 13 points to only 45%, while dissatisfaction soared by 15 points to 52%.

Here again, the Tories manage to eke out a victory. But unlike in New Brunswick, they are limited to a minority government of 22 seats (19 of them on the island but outside of the St. John's region). The New Democrats take 17 seats, 11 of them in and around St. John's, while the Liberals win nine seats, all of them west of the Avalon peninsula.

Prince Edward Island remains a Liberal bastion, with the party leading with 51%. That is a gain of six points since November, putting them back to where they were in the 2011 election. The New Democrats scored their best result, gaining four points to move into second with 26%. With their leadership turmoil still on-going, the Progressive Conservatives fell 12 points to only 16%, their lowest result since at least the 2007 election, and almost certainly well before that.

Premier Robert Ghiz led on the best premier question, the only incumbent Atlantic Canadian premier to do so in CRA's four polls. He was at 37%, trailed by Mike Redmond of the NDP at 18%. Steven Myers, interim leader of the Tories, managed 7%, 12 points fewer than Olive Crane did before her resignation.

Satisfaction with the government increased to 50%, while dissatisfaction fell to 46% (those saying they were completely dissatisfied were down six points to only 16%).

In terms of seats, the Liberals would probably sweep the island with these numbers. It is difficult to know what would happen, as the New Democrats have never been this high and their support could be less uniform than the model suggests. The model puts the NDP within 10 points of the Liberals in only one riding (in Charlottetown), but if this poll was reflective of the result of the next election the New Democrats would probably be able to put their votes to better use and win a couple of seats. But their vote is less likely to be as efficient as that of the Tories (and that is not saying much) as we can probably expect the NDP to do best in Charlottetown, where the Liberals are already strong. However, if the NDP is indeed in second place, Redmond would be able to attract a few good candidates and, along with himself, win some ridings based on that alone.

With the New Democrats making new inroads in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick, the next elections in these provinces will be quite unpredictable. How will this party, that has never before been a factor in these provinces before, do when the rubber hits the road? Will pockets of support emerge in unexpected places? It makes for an interesting time in Atlantic Canadian politics.

Ghiz and Dunderdale hold wide leads in CRA poll

Yesterday, Atlantic Canada was all a-flutter with the poll results of Corporate Research Associates' report, a  quarterly tradition on the East Coast. The two provinces furthest away from their next elections (Newfoundland & Labrador and Prince Edward Island) show that the incumbents hold wide leads over their nearest rivals. The poll results led, in part, to the resignation of Olive Crane as leader of the PEI PCs.

We will start there. CRA was last in the field throughout the month of August, and since then the Liberals picked up three points to hit 45%, well ahead of the Progressive Conservatives. They were down four points to 28%, while the New Democrats were up four points to 22%. Another 5% said they would vote for the Greens, down three points.

Fully 40% of respondents were classified as "undecided, no answer, do not plan to vote, refused to state", which is par for the course in CRA's polling. Thankfully, CRA increased their sample size in PEI from 300 to 600 in this poll, otherwise the sample of decided voters would have had a less useful margin of error of +/- 7.3%.

The Liberals have generally held stable over the last year or so, but they are down eight points from where they were in November 2011. The Tories have also been quite stable, with between 26% and 34% over the last 12 months - as good as a straight line considering the small samples. The New Democrats, however, have been on a steady increase, up from the 9% to 11% they were polling in November 2011 and February 2012. At 22%, the NDP are at their best polling level since at least November 2010, and likely for quite some time before that as well.

But the New Democrats are hard to classify as a major party in PEI. They only ran a half-slate in the 2011 election and were beaten by the Greens. If the NDP runs a full slate in 2015, they could do quite well.

On leadership, Premier Robert Ghiz was up three points to 36% on the Best Premier question, while Crane was down five points to 19%. That is her lowest result for some time, having polled between 22% and 26% over the last year. Likely this had something to do with her decision to step down as leader. She barely did better than new leader Mike Redmond of the NDP.

Satisfaction with Ghiz's government stood at 43% (+3) while dissatisfaction was down two points to 51%. It has to be pointed out that every shift in the polls on every question was within the margin of error, so it is difficult to definitively say whether anything has really changed in the last three months. The longer trends are clearer, however: the Liberals and PCs down a tick to the benefit of the NDP.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the governing Progressive Conservatives were up one point to 46%, compared with CRA's last poll in August. The NDP was down two points to 31%, while the Liberals were up one to 23%. Status quo, then.

The PCs have stopped their recent decline, as they were as high as 60% twelve months ago. Things have stabilized, with the NDP polling around 30% since the last election. The Liberals have been slowly increasing their support, however, with 23% tying their best result since February 2011, when Telelink put them at that level.

Kathy Dunderdale was seen as the best option for premier by 36%, while Lorraine Michael was second with 29% and Dwight Ball, interim leader of the NL Liberals, was at 18%. Any shifts from August were within the margin of error, and generally the leadership numbers have followed the same trends as have the voting intentions.

Satisfaction with the government was rated at 58%, unchanged since August, while dissatisfaction was up three points to 37%.

In terms of seats, both Dunderdale and Ghiz would win another majority government on these numbers.

In PEI, the Liberals would win 24 seats to three for the PCs, with all of those Tory seats being won in the eastern part of the island.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the Tories would win 29 seats to 11 for the NDP and eight for the Liberals, meaning that Michael would head-up the Official Opposition.

The Tories would win seats in every part of the province, while the NDP would be heavily concentrated in and around St. John's and the Liberals in the central and western parts of the island and in Labrador.

The thing to watch in Prince Edward Island is whether the New Democrats are really going to maintain this level of support and be able to run a full slate of candidates. One suspects that these polling numbers would help them find another 26 names to put on the ballot beside Redmond's. If that does occur, the fallout would be a little unpredictable, as the NDP has never been a real factor in PEI.

The NDP is also worth watching in Newfoundland and Labrador, as they have improved upon their 2011 election result and have maintained that support for almost a year. The Liberals aren't going away either, and could be revitalized after they choose their new leader. Dunderdale still has a wide advantage but that could slip away in the midst of a campaign. If the Liberals continue to pick-up support, a minority government in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2015 is not unthinkable.

Dexter's NDP gains in Nova Scotia

Last week, the Corporate Research Associates released their quarterly poll for the four Atlantic provinces. The details of the polls for Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador are available at their website. As all of these provinces are many years away from the next election, I invite you to check out the polls directly.

But before you do, let's take a look at the results for Nova Scotia, where the next election is scheduled for 2013.

Darrell Dexter's New Democrats have gained four points since CRA's last poll in August, and now lead with 45%. That is the highest that they have been in at least a year.

The Progressive Conservatives are down one point to 29%, while the Liberals are down four points to 22%.

The Greens are unchanged at 4% support.

For Dexter, this is the kind of support he enjoyed in the 2009 election. But the Liberals have been losing ground, primarily to the Tories. The Liberals had beaten the PCs by about 27% to 25% in that last election.

Dexter's numbers are very good, as 55% of Nova Scotians are satisfied with his work as Premier. That's up six points since August.

He is also doing quite well in the Best Premier poll, at 36% (up five points since August). Stephen McNeil of the Liberals is down one point to 22% while Jamie Baillie of the Tories is up one point to 18%.

McNeil is probably ahead of Baillie because he is better known. He led the Liberals in the last election, while Baillie took over from Rodney MacDonald last year.

Though Dexter's personal support is lower than his support among decided voters, that is merely because of the inclusion of the "none of the above/don't know". If we took those out, Dexter gets 44% on the Best Premier question.

A new riding model for Nova Scotia is now ready, though it isn't a regional model just yet. As CRA doesn't break down their polls by region, at least not until a campaign is under way, a regional model would not make any difference at this point.

With these numbers, the New Democrats win 31 of the 52 seats in the Nova Scotia Legislative Assembly, unchanged from their current standing. The Progressive Conservatives win 11 seats, one more than they did in 2009 and four more than they currently have, while the Liberals win 10, one fewer than the last election and three fewer than they currently occupy.

The New Democrats dominate the Halifax region with 15 seats. The Liberals take the three others.

In the Annapolis Valley and the South Shore, the NDP win seven seats, the Liberals four, and the Progressive Conservatives three, while in the Fundy and Central regions the NDP wins seven and the Tories four. Cape Breton Island is most split, with four seats going to the PCs, three to the Liberals, and two to the NDP.

The New Democrats are about half-way through their first mandate in Nova Scotia, and it appears to be smooth sailing. At this point, it looks like Darrell Dexter is on track to avoid being a one-term premier.