Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Monthly Picture: July

Now it's time to look at the polling average over the month of July. A eight national polls were taken during this month, totalling about 16,140 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 33.4% (+1.4)
Liberals - 32.3% (-2.1)
New Democrats - 15.7% (+0.4)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.6% (+0.4)
Greens - 8.7% (+0.1)

Only the Conservatives had a good polling month, and they have increased their vote total by 2 points over the last two months. The Liberals had a bad month, dropping more than two points and losing the top spot. The NDP and Bloc Quebecois did alright, while the Greens stagnated. The NDP gain is significant in that they have been struggling since the last election. The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 124 (+12)
Liberals - 111 (-12)
Bloc Quebecois - 50 (+1)
New Democrats - 23 (-1)
Greens - 0 (-1)

The Liberals and Conservatives trade seats, and the Tories are back in power. It is still a close-run thing, however. The Bloc maintains itself while the NDP still loses more than a third of its current caucus.

The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (seven polls - 1,599 people)

Conservatives - 37.8% (+2.7)
Liberals - 27.9% (-3.1)
New Democrats - 21.4% (-0.1)
Greens - 11.7% (-0.2)

ALBERTA (seven polls - 1,169 people)

Conservatives - 58.9% (-0.3)
Liberals - 19.7% (-0.7)
New Democrats - 11.2% (+0.1)
Greens - 9.6% (+1.1)

PRAIRIES (seven polls - 845 people)

Conservatives - 47.4% (-0.3)
Liberals - 21.5% (-4.9)
New Democrats - 21.2% (+2.6)
Greens - 8.3% (+1.5)

ONTARIO (eight polls - 5,679 people)

Liberals - 38.6% (-2.0)
Conservatives - 36.5% (+1.4)
New Democrats - 14.9% (+0.6)
Greens - 9.6% (unchanged)

QUEBEC (eight polls - 3,566 people)

Bloc Quebecois - 37.1% (+0.3)
Liberals - 30.7% (-2.6)
Conservatives - 15.5% (+2.1)
New Democrats - 9.7% (-0.3)
Greens - 6.7% (+0.5)

ATLANTIC CANADA (seven polls - 918 people)

Liberals - 37.2% (-2.0)
Conservatives - 29.6% (+3.2)
New Democrats - 27.6% (+1.5)
Greens - 4.6% (-2.7)

Regionally, the Conservatives and the NDP had the best month, gaining in four regions and losing in only two. The Conservatives losses were very small in the Prairies and Alberta, but they made significant leaps forward in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, with more modest, but still important, gains in Quebec and Ontario. The NDP's gains were smaller, but the 2.6-point gain in the Prairies is a good sign for them, as is the small gain in Ontario. The Greens had a decent month, gaining in three, losing in two, and staying the same in one. All of the movements were very small except in Atlantic Canada, where they lost more than a third of last month's support. That makes an Elizabeth May campaign in Central Nova unlikely. The Bloc had a small gain, but that marks two months in a row.

The Liberals had a bad month, losing in all six regions. Only in Alberta was the loss small, in all other regions the loss was greater than two points, and reached a troublesome give points in the Prairies.

August and September will determine whether we'll be headed to an election in October. Michael Ignatieff will probably not defeat the government if he is still trailing, as the reasons for doing so aren't exactly clear, as they would be following the spring budget.

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