Thursday, August 13, 2009

Weekly Projection Update - Conservatives by Seven

The Conservatives still hold a seven seat lead on the Liberals. There have been no changes to the seat count. A remarkable thing about the polls in recent weeks, and even months, is the consistency. Even if a poll does show some movement, another one comes along that shows movement in the other direction, evening things out.

Nationally, the Liberals and NDP have traded 0.1 points, reducing the Liberal lead over the Tories to the smallest of margins.

Large regional movements include a 0.5-point loss for the Conservatives and a 0.3-point gain for the Greens in British Columbia, and a 0.3-point gain in the Prairies for the Liberals.

Because Elizabeth May has announced she'll be running on the West Coast, I've changed the projection model so that a Green seat win in Atlantic Canada becomes much more unlikely. However, considering the Greens are currently projected to do best in British Columbia, the seat choice by Ms. May seems like a good one. It will be interesting to see if we BC shows a small bump for the Greens over the next few weeks.

Another region to watch will be Atlantic Canada. The electoral victory of the provincial NDP in Nova Scotia has also paid off for Jack Layton's troops, and with the convention being held in Halifax over the weekend, the NDP may be able to sustain some of that momentum into the fall. Of course, we'll have to wait and see if the convention gives a bump to the party at all in the province.

And maybe, just maybe, next week we'll be calling them the Democratic Party of Canada, or DPC. Change is fun.

2 comments:

  1. I am wondering how that seat choice is a good one for May.... it seems alot like her battle with McKay.

    She is going to fight a Torie cabinet minister. Who has held the seat for 5 elections and was a reform riding the election before.

    Last election Mr. Lunn won the seat by 2600 votes. 4% against a high profile liberal that seems unlikely to run in the next.

    But here is the big problem. The liberal, the high profile one didn't win after having the NDP candidate drop from the race. Lunn still did.

    And miss my can expect no special treatment this time as she did against McKay with no liberal running. This time she must run against 3 parties who will fight, and she must (atleast) triple her parties vote share in the seat.

    Again I don't see many differences from fighting Peter McKay. I think she has blown her opportunity again before it started.

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  2. Ms. may has an uphill battle no matter where she runs. This riding is the best for the Greens in the province that is the best for them. I wouldn't say it is necessarily her best option, but it is a very good one.

    Does that mean she has a good chance of being elected? No. But surprises happen.

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