Wednesday, August 26, 2009

New CROP Poll: BQ and LPC Tied

CROP released a new poll today through La Presse, taken between August 13 and August 23 and involving 1,003 Quebecers. The result:

Bloc Quebecois - 30%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 18%
Conservatives - 17%
Greens - 6%

CROP is one of the less reliable polling firms, and is correspondingly weighted the least in my model. They also tend to under-poll the Bloc, so it is difficult to know what to think with this poll. This result is far, far lower than anything we've seen recently with the Bloc, while the NDP number is quite high. Another outlier, perhaps?

As usual, CROP does not have the details for this poll available on their site, and I don't imagine they will for another few months (it took about half-a-year for CROP to update their site last time).

The article above mentions that the Bloc is now in the lead in the Quebec City region, with 33%. They are followed by the Liberals at 24% and the Conservatives at 23%. This bodes well for the Bloc - they look to return to some of their former 'fortresses' at the expense of the Tories.

The only other piece of information is that 61% of Quebecers are dissatisfied with the government. Which means about 22% of Quebecers don't want to vote for the Conservatives but are satisfied with their governing.

UPDATE: More details via Chantal Hébert's blog. She provides the Green result, but also the francophone breakdown:

Bloc Quebecois - 35%
Liberals - 26%
New Democrats - 17%
Conservatives - 17%
Greens - 5%

This is the important number, since most of the seats in Quebec are decided by the francophone vote. The Bloc still has a good lead over the Liberals among this group, ensuring they can still win a good portion, perhaps even the majority, of the seats in Quebec - even with 30% support provincially.

UPDATE 2: No doubt out of spite, CROP has decided to actually update their website. So we get some more details.

Among non-francophones, the Liberals have the lead with 50% of the vote. They are followed by the NDP at 19% and the Conservatives at 17%. In Montreal and the surrounding region, the Liberals are ahead with 35%, followed by the Bloc at 29% and the NDP at 17%. That puts them in a good position to hold on to Outremont.

Quebecers consider Michael Ignatieff to be the best potential Prime Minister (35%), followed closely by Jack Layton (29%). Stephen Harper receives only 18% - more or less the amount of Conservative supporters. It seems that Bloc voters tend to see Layton as the best PM.


  1. Satisfaction with government is always significantly higher than the percentage of people who say they would vote for the governing party. That's a given. A lot of people who are only "somewhat satisfied" will vote for other parties for a variety of reasons.

    I don't see CROP as being less reliable than anyone else in Quebec. They've done riding polls that were accurate and I believe they were quite close to the final popular vote in '04, '06 and '08. 31% is actually not that low for the BQ. All through 2008 before the election, polls had the BQ in the low 30s - back when it looked like the Tories were about the make a big breakthrough in Quebec. Its worth noting that CROP's provincial numbers show a big slide for the PQ as well - and when the PQ goes down, the BQ often follows.

  2. CROP was very far off during the provincial election in December.

  3. I suppose that in polling you are only as good as your last election. Nanos was so accurate federally in 2004 and 2006 and then he was middle of the pack in 2008. Its largely a matter of chance. There isn't much magic potion that makes one polling company "more accurate" than another - other than the larger the sample size, the smaller the margin of error.

    The fact is, we are not in the final weekend of an election campaign where we are trying to predict the results of the next election down to the last seat. Its mid-summer and we are looking at the larger trends. The CROP polls tells me that: a. there is a large soft BQ vote that could easily go NDP under the right circumstances b. there has been some loss of Liberal momentum in Quebec since Spring - though they are still well ahead of where they were in the last election. c. Tory support in Quebec is settling in in the mid to high teens which is like the ADQ vote in the last Quebec election and maybe that is the base rightwing vote in Quebec. d. Jack Layton has a great personal following in Quebec - and the NDP has to find a way to turn that into more seats.

  4. Interesting Choice for the Headline about the Liberal being tied with Bloc.

    If the Bloc hold their francophone ridings and the Liberals hold Montreal Island Anglo vote how does the NDP hold on their seat and the CPC lose half their seat around Quebec City when the Bloc were second?

    Does the Crop Poll breakdown riding by riding? Are you tranferring the national Polls with their VERY large margins into your projection model?

    Each partisan will spin a Poll to their reality.

    How does your Projection Model compare with

  5. --- "If the Bloc hold their francophone ridings and the Liberals hold Montreal Island Anglo vote how does the NDP hold on their seat and the CPC lose half their seat around Quebec City when the Bloc were second?"

    I don't understand what you're asking.

    -- "Does the Crop Poll breakdown riding by riding?"


    -- "Are you tranferring the national Polls with their VERY large margins into your projection model?"

    Yes. But the weight of a particular poll is, in part, determined by the size of the poll.

    -- "How does your Projection Model compare with"

    I don't know, I haven't looked at his projection model.


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