Friday, August 28, 2009

New AR Poll: 4% Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid has released a new poll today, as reported by the Toronto Star. Angus-Reid has not updated their website yet, which is odd as they are usually very quick with that. The poll was taken between August 25 and August 26 and involved 1,003 Canadians. The national results:

Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 18%
Greens - 9%
Bloc Quebecois - 8%

So, a good result for the Tories but nothing out of the ordinary. The NDP result is very good. As Angus-Reid is my highest-rated polling firm, these are important numbers to note.

As I don't have the full details yet, I can only give a partial description of the poll.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have taken a strong lead with 43%, followed by the NDP at 28%. The Liberals are in third, with the Greens in fourth at 10%. This Green result demonstrates that there definitely is an upward trend for the party in British Columbia.

In Alberta and the Prairies, the Tories have a strong lead (62% and 51%, respectively) while the Liberals have edged ahead in Ontario (37% to 35%). A 13% for the NDP in this province, however, is very worrisome, especially considering the Greens have 15% support.

In Quebec, the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois are tied at 33% with the Conservatives at 16%. In Atlantic Canada, the NDP has 33%, a very, very good result. I don't have information about the other parties in the region.

As to who would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper is at 27%, followed by Michael Ignatieff at 17% and Jack Layton at 12%. With such low numbers, we must assume "none of the above" was by far the most popular answer.

This means that, in the Best PM track, Harper has dropped one point to 28%, Ignatieff has dropped three points to 22%, and Layton has dropped one point to 13%.

More information to come as more details emerge!

7 comments:

  1. The complete results of the Angus Reid poll have been posted.

    http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2009.08.28_Politics.pdf

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  2. Thanks, I've been actually working on it. Probably have a post later tonight.

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  3. And I'm sure you must be happy to see the stellar NDP results!

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  4. I wouldn't say "stellar". 18% is what the NDP got in the last election and its not out of line with what we have seen from Nanos and Ekos and Harris-Decima etc... I don't think that polls right now are all that predictive in and of themselves, but they do have a big impact on the media narrative and on party morale. All it took was for Liberals support to drop a couple of points this summer to spark and orgy of negative news stories about Ignatieff's lost summer etc...the polls almost become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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  5. It's not the 18% which I consider most stellar (though you can't deny that the last election's results were very good), but the regional results. 28% in BC, 16% in Alberta, 31% in the Prairies, and 33% in Atlantic Canada are all very good results. I project this will allow them to keep all 37 seats they currently hold.

    Yes, polls do have the kind of influence you mention. But in and of themselves I find them interesting, and they are certainly helpful in terms of setting policy and methods.

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  6. Post will have to wait until tomorrow afternoon, unfortunately. Just got in and too tired to write up any coherent!

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  7. That should be 'anything coherent'. What an appropriate typo.

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