Thursday, August 27, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 1.5% Conservative Lead

My apologies for the late post, I've been away all day, and it's been a long one. Anyway, EKOS has released a new poll today, taken between August 19 and August 25 and involving 2,153 Canadians. The national results:

Conservatives - 32.6%
Liberals - 30.9%
New Democrats - 15.7%
Greens - 11.3%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.5%

So, nothing out of the ordinary but it does provide further proof that the Ipsos-Reid poll earlier this week was an outlier. It can happen to anyone.

The EKOS race is narrowing, but more interesting is that the NDP have seen a not-insignificant drop of about two points from the last poll. If you look at the weekly EKOS polling, you see an NDP bump after the convention of about one-to-three points. It seems to be already falling off - but it did exist.

The race is white hot in British Columbia - 31.6% for the Conservatives, 28.3% for the Liberals, and 27.2% for the NDP. Ontario is extraordinarily close as well - 37.0% for both the Tories and the Liberals. A weak 14.2% for the NDP.

In Quebec, the Bloc is doing well at 37.1% with the Liberals at 26.2% and the Conservatives at 15.0%. This week's CROP poll, far from the "gold-standard" of polling firms in Quebec (according to The Globe and Mail's Norman Spector), looks to be more of an outlier, but CROP historically under-polls the Bloc.

The Liberals have re-emerged in Atlantic Canada, with 43.5% while the NDP has slipped to 21.8%.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead among males (36.3%), those aged 45-64 (34.8%), 65+ (39.7%), those with a high school education (30.0%), and a college education (35.8%). They also lead in Vancouver (33.1%) and Calgary (69.5%).

The Liberals lead among females (31.6%), those aged under 25 (29.9%), between 25 and 44 (29.95), and those with a university education (35.9%). They also lead in Toronto (39.7%) and Ottawa (43.8%), the latter being a new development.

The Bloc leads in Montreal at 35.8%. The NDP did not place second in any demographic or city.

So, this poll would translate into the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 122
Liberals - 109
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 27

It's the close race in Ontario that does it. Give the Liberals two points from the Tories in that province and the government flips allegiance.

Projection update coming tomorrow, but I'm not sure when as it will be a very busy day.