Tuesday, August 11, 2009

New SC Poll: 2% Conservative Lead

The Globe and Mail has reported on a new Strategic Counsel poll of 1,000 Canadians taken between July 29 and August 3. SC has yet to post the detailed information on their website.

Here are the national numbers:

Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 32%
New Democrats - 15%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 8%

So, well within what we've seen lately. "Statistically tied", as they say. I hate that phrase. While the margin of error means they could be tied, it could also mean an even greater Tory lead. So why not just say "it's close!"?

"It's close!" in Ontario:

Liberals - 40%
Conservatives - 37%
New Democrats - 14%
Greens - 9%

Again, this is what we've been seeing lately. And now Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 44%
Liberals - 30%
Conservatives - 14%
New Democrats - 7%
Greens - 6%

That's a huge Bloc result, but the Liberal and Tory numbers are nothing surprising. The NDP result is low, which is probably the reason for the high Bloc number.

The SC details won't give us much more information, as they don't seem to report on results in Atlantic Canada, and the "West" is globed into one group. What this poll does confirm, once again, is that this is a tight race, both nationally and in Ontario, and that the only real fluctuation in Quebec is the Bloc number. We could see a worse result than 2008 for the Bloc, or we might see the best result since 2004.

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