Friday, August 28, 2009

Weekly Projection Update: Conservatives by Six

So, there have been no seat changes in the projection over the last week. There has been some movement in projected support, however.

At the national level, the Greens are this week's big winners. They've picked up 0.2 points, and now stand at 9.4%. The Bloc Quebecois has lost 0.1 points at the national level, and the Liberals have lost 0.2. They now stand at 32.5%, less than half-a-point behind the Conservatives who are at 32.9%.

There were some large (greater than 0.3) regional movements as well.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives and Liberals each lost 0.4 points. The NDP gained 0.3 and the Greens, still benefiting from the May announcement of her choice of riding, have picked up 0.6 points. The breakdown there is now:

Conservatives - 35.2% - 19 seats
Liberals - 28.4% - 12 seats
New Democrats - 23.1% - 5 seats
Greens - 12.8% - 0 seats

Quebec also saw some significant movements. The NDP and the Greens made the most gains, with 0.4 and 0.3 points, respectively. The Liberals and the Bloc, on the other hand, each lost 0.3 points. The Quebec projection now looks like:

Bloc Quebecois - 36.4% - 49 seats
Liberals - 31.1% - 20 seats
Conservatives - 15.0% - 5 seats
New Democrats - 10.8% - 1 seat
Greens - 6.6% - 0 seats

The Prairies saw the NDP drop 0.3 points and Atlantic Canada saw the Conservatives lose 0.3 points to the NDP. Alberta, Ontario, and the North saw very little movement in support.

It's been an interesting week for polls, to say the least. But when you look at all of them together, you still see very little movement in public opinion for the time-being. That is to be expected; it's summer. Once Parliament starts up again in September, things could start moving. And, of course, there is the possibility of an election - which some Liberals are saying won't happen after all.

For the purposes of drama and blog traffic, I hope that isn't the case.


  1. Eric, I'm trying to understand your method. When you do a weekly update is it just based on the polls of the week that are highlighted in yellow at the bottom of the page? When do you drop old polls?

    For example, for the NDP in BC, this week we have three polls that have them at 27%, 26% and 22%. and the first two have the biggest sample sizes. By my reckoning that should come out of about 25.5% but you get 23.5%

  2. Each week, I add the polls that have come out since the last projection to the model. I've reached what I consider the necessary amount of polls, so during each update the amount of polls 'dropped' is equal to the amount of polls added. Polls are dropped according to weight rather than age, though age does play a role in determining weight.

    The highlighted polls are the new polls that have been added to the model.

    The 23.5% in BC for the NDP is not a reflection of their polling performance over the last week, but their projection based on the model. The NDP has gained in BC because of their decent numbers, but the model is designed to not react so quickly to new polling information. That ensures that outlier polls like the IR poll earlier this week do not 'take over' the projection. Real trends need to exist to make it move.

  3. So, in short, to answer your question, no, the weekly updates are not based only on the polls that have come out during the last week.

  4. You might want to add this one too.

  5. Thanks for bringing that one to my attention. It will have to be included in next week's update, unfortunately.


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