Thursday, August 6, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 3% Conservative Lead

As usual, EKOS has released a new poll today. It was taken between July 29 and August 4 and involved 2,468 interviews. The national results:

Conservatives - 34.9%
Liberals - 31.9%
New Democrats - 13.8%
Greens - 10.8%
Bloc Quebecois - 8.6%

That is an excellent result for the Tories. The Liberal result isn't terrible, however, so things still remain close enough. But the NDP result is horrific. They almost need the name change to get away from these kinds of numbers. The Green result is inflated, as usual.

Regionally, nothing too dramatic. But the NDP is weak in a lot of places - 18.4% in British Columbia, 22.5% in the Prairies, 12.5% in Ontario, and 23% in Atlantic Canada. This is simply a bad poll for them.

The Tories had no terrific results themselves, but are close in Ontario (36.2%) and had one of their best recent results in Quebec (19.1%). The Liberals had a surprisingly weak result in Quebec (27.6%). The Bloc 36.1% isn't even that good.

Did anyone do well in this poll?

If anyone did, it was the Conservatives. They led in most demographics (males, females, 25-44, 65+, high school, college, Calgary, Ottawa) while the Liberals (<25, university, Vancouver, Toronto) and the Bloc (Montreal) took the rest.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 127
Liberals - 113
Bloc Quebecois - 49
New Democrats - 18
Greens - 1

So, the Liberals remain within striking distance but the NDP caucus is decimated.

I'll be updating the projection later today or tomorrow morning. The poll has been "aged" with the passing of another month, so there should be some changes.

2 comments:

  1. These results are skewed by a 40% (suspicious) in the last day of the poll.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well, that's why they take the polls over several days.

    ReplyDelete

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