Friday, August 21, 2009

Projection Change: Conservatives by Six

Thanks to a commenter who got me thinking, I took a second look at the projection model for Alberta. I'm not quite sure how I got the numbers I did, but I've changed the model for that province and so the projection has changed. Instead of 25 seats, the Conservatives are projected to win 27. And instead of three, the Liberals are projected to win one.

So, that puts the total at 120 Conservative seats to 114 Liberal, meaning a Conservative minority.


  1. That's better-but still there should be a bigger change in the Atlantic too with the lead for the Liberals down to 0.8% from double digit leads in the spring and early summer?

  2. What do you mean? The Liberals still have a 10-point lead in the projection in Atlantic Canada.


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