Thursday, August 13, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 1.7% Conservative Lead

EKOS has released a new poll today, taken between August 5 and August 11 and involving 2,985 Canadians. The national results:

Conservatives - 32.7%
Liberals - 31.0%
New Democrats - 16.5%
Greens - 10.1%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.7%

With such a large sample size, that is a good result for the NDP. The Liberals and Conservatives remain very, very close.

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia (31.3%), Alberta (63.0%), and the Prairies (44.2%). They also lead among males (36.3%), those aged between 45 and 64 (34.4%), those over the age of 65 (43.1%), those with high school educations (35.8%) and those with college educations (35.4%). They also lead in Calgary (67.0%) and Ottawa (48.7%). In Ontario they're not far behind the Liberals at 35.5%, and their 16.3% in Quebec is not terrible. The 25.6% in Atlantic Canada, putting them in third, is.

The Liberals are leading in Ontario (38.8%) and Atlantic Canada (32.8%). They also lead among females (30.7%), those younger than 25 (26.9%), those aged between 25 and 44 (29.7%), and those with a university education (38.1%). They also lead in Vancouver (28.7%) and Toronto (47.7%). Their results in British Columbia (25.8%) and the Prairies (29.7%) are decent, and their 27.3% result in Quebec is a little below average.

The New Democrats had a very strong poll, but did not lead anywhere. They did take second place in British Columbia (26.6%) and Atlantic Canada (30.1%). Their results in Ontario (14.7%) and Quebec (11.1%) were alright, but their Prairie result (20.3%) is worrisome. They did best among 25-44 year olds (19.1%) and were strong in Vancouver (26.3%).

The Bloc Quebecois had a very strong 38.5% in Quebec, and lead in Montreal (38.8%).

The Greens always do well in EKOS polling, and their top demographic is those under the age of 25 (19.6%) and their best city is Vancouver (17.2%).

The poll also had a rating of approval or disapproval of the three major party leaders. Stephen Harper had the best approval rating at 36%, but also had the worst disapproval rating at 47%. Jack Layton had decent results (34% approve, 33% disapprove), while Ignatieff had the worst approval rating (29%) but had a better disapproval rating (38%) than Harper.

This poll translates into the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 117
Liberals - 110
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 30

Still very, very close. And a good showing by the NDP. Their goal in the upcoming election must be 30 seats or more if they want to have any hope of a moral victory.

Projection update coming later today, or tomorrow.


  1. If those were the results on election day, I'm not so sure we wouldn't end up with a Lib/NDP coalition. It still wouldn't quite have a majority, but it would have quite a few more seats than the Conservatives.

  2. I try not to rely on pre-election polls very much. However, if this one was right, yeah, I also think we could very easily end up with a Lib/NDP coalition.

    Regards, Julie.


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