Friday, August 21, 2009

Weekly Projection Update: Conservatives by Two

The projection has been updated, and there have been some significant changes. Part of the reason for these changes is that I have tweaked the weight of past elections slightly in order to make them more uniform.

What we have is the Conservatives down three seats, the Liberals up two, and the NDP up one. This puts the race very close, at 118 Conservative seats to 116 Liberal seats. In all likelihood, a situation like this would have some sort of Liberal-NDP co-operative government or even a true coalition, but for now the Projected Parliament will remain in Tory hands.

The Conservatives have lost one seat each in British Columbia, Alberta, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada but have gained one seat in Ontario. The Liberal gains come in British Columbia, Alberta, and the Prairies but they have also lost one seat in Ontario. The NDP seat gain comes, appropriately enough, in Atlantic Canada.

The national support level has flipped and the Conservatives now have the lead, thanks to a 0.1 point gain and 0.2 point Liberal loss. The NDP and Bloc Quebecois are also up 0.1 points nationally.

Regionally, the Conservatives have seen losses of 1.1 points in British Columbia, one point in Alberta, 0.3 points in the Prairies, and 0.4 points in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals have made gains of one point in British Columbia and Alberta and 0.8 points in the Prairies.

The NDP has lost 0.3 points in British Columbia and 0.8 points in the Prairies.

The Greens have shown gains of 0.6 points in British Columbia and the Prairies, 0.5 points in Alberta, and 0.7 points in Atlantic Canada.

Things are extremely close, to say the least.

9 comments:

  1. I'm curious why you keep giving all three territorial seats to the Liberals when right now they are split NDP 1, Tories 1 and Liberals 1. There have been no polls in the north whatsoever and they tend to be pretty impervious to national trends with more of tendency to always re-elect incumbents. Don't you think that the most fair thing to do is to assume that the territories remain the status quo?

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  2. Those seats are projected by averaging out the last three elections and the current proportional change of national support. With Tory support dropping about 10% and the NDP dropping almost 20%, it stands to reason that the Liberals, who have grown their support levels by about 15% will pick up the two extra seats.

    Giving them to their incumbents is another option, but I prefer to make a projection rather than not. The NDP and Conservatives just need to improve their vote totals to win back those seats.

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  3. Do you think the Liberals winning 3 seats in Alberta is a resonable projection?

    I'm not exactly sure of your methods for calculating this, and don't mean to be overly critical, but 3 seats in Alberta for the Liberals seems to me to be in the realm of fantasy.

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  4. They've won two seats in the province in the past few elections before, and they won four in 1993. With the Liberals at a strong support level and the Tories at their worst support level since the CA and PC parties merged, there is no reason to consider it fantasy.

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  5. Hmm, looking at my numbers, I think I may have made an error when I first constructed the model.

    I'll look into it.

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  6. I've made a change to the model. For some reason, I had the Liberals capable of winning five seats with a performance equal to 2004, when they won two.

    I'm not quite sure why I had it that way.

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  7. I guess we will have to agree to disagree, but I think that in the absence of any polling in the territories, it makes more sense to assume the status quo.

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  8. I think you are wrong re 3 libs in AB. Once voting lists were corrected Landslide Annie left us, and Kilgors seat was his seat, not liberal.

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  9. I've already changed it, as you can see by the above comments.

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