Monday, February 21, 2011

AM radio or YouTube? How parties reach their supporters

Marketing is almost always targeted at a particular audience. That’s why you don’t see sugary breakfast cereal commercials during a cop drama or life insurance ads during episodes of Glee. Political marketing is no different, and recently the Conservatives purchased advertising time during the Super Bowl and on French-language television during Montreal Canadiens games. The choice was no coincidence.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

Nanos has a new poll out this morning. Hey, guess what? It says a lot of the same things the other polls have said. I'll write about it later today.

But if you didn't check the blog this weekend, take a look at my post on decimals yesterday.


  1. A very true point. If I was making attack ads I'd certain plot around those points - ie: anti-CPC on news programs, anti-Liberal on shows women 34-55 are likely to watch. You want to drive down the vote for your opponent, if you think of it as a 2 party system, as much as you want to drive up your vote.

    However, if the parties wish to expand their base they need to step out of their traditional areas and try to find ways to appeal to the youth of today (CPC) or to the senior population (Green) if you wish to use the two extremes.

    I do find it funny/sad though that so many refuse to look beyond the ads and think for themselves. While many here I do not agree with, at least I can respect that they all have tried to understand the issues and found which party fit their viewpoints best. Hard to respect a voting choice based on the 'not a leader' ads or on the 'soldiers, in our streets' ads or worse still, on the number of signs they see. I still feel they should get out and vote, as I believe in democracy, but geez do people who vote based on signs make it hard to support democracy eh?

  2. Eric, you noted that a number of the recent polls have the Conservatives leading in Atlantic Canada by margins in 5% to 10% range. This is a sharp reversal from the 2008 election when the Liberals lead the Tories by almost 10%. However, your model seems to "cap" the Tories at 12 seats in the region regardless of their strength and/or Liberal weakness. Does your model "cap" parties in other regions? If so, I would be interested in knowing the various caps/floors in your model and how you arrived at them.

  3. Anonymous,

    Yes, my current model does have a cap. It's the most seats each party has won in a region over the last three elections, plus the seats in which they were within 10% of the winner.

    There is no floor. Here are the caps for each party, with order of regions being BC, AB, PR, ON, QC, and AT:

    CPC: 30, 28, 24, 65, 13, 12

    LPC: 12, 2, 7, 98, 28, 27

    NDP: 16, 1, 5, 20, 2, 7

    BQ: 65

    That gives the Conservatives a ceiling of 172 seats, the Liberals a ceiling of 174 seats, and the NDP a ceiling of 51 seats, not counting the three seats in the north.

    The new projection model I am working on will not have caps.


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