Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Conservatives lead by 14 in new Ipsos-Reid poll

When the Conservatives criticized EKOS's most recent poll, Ipsos-Reid told Robert Fife of CTV that they were seeing the same things in their polling. Now released, the poll conducted for Postmedia News and Global Television shows an even wider lead for the Conservatives than in EKOS's poll.We last heard from Ipsos-Reid at the beginning of February, and since then the Conservatives have gained five points. They now lead with 39%. The Liberals, down four points, trail at 25%.

These gains are outside of the +/- 3.1 margin of error (19 times out of 20) for a random survey of this size, indicating that some real movement is taking place.

The New Democrats are up two points to 18%, while the Greens are steady at 10%. The Bloc Québécois is down two points to 9% nationally.

When we break down the national support numbers by age, we see a very close race in the 18 to 34 cohort: 26% for the Conservatives, 25% for the Liberals, and 23% for the NDP. But among those over the age of 34, the Tories hold a commanding lead. They are also in front among both men and women.

In Ontario, where the MOE for this survey is about five points, the Conservatives have gained six points and now lead with 42%. The Liberals are down eight to 32%, while the NDP is unchanged at 15%. The Greens, at 11%, are up three points. This is not dissimilar from the results EKOS found last week.

The Bloc Québécois has dropped five points in Quebec, but still leads with 37%. The Conservatives are up six points to 21%, echoing some better results we've seen for the Tories in recent polls. The Liberals and New Democrats are up one point a piece to 17% and 15%. All of these variations are within the 7% MOE for Quebec.

In British Columbia (MOE +/- 9%), the Conservatives are down three points to 39%. The NDP makes a big 13 point gain and now trails with 30%, while the Liberals are down two to 23%. The Greens, at 11%, are down four points.

The Conservatives are unchanged in Atlantic Canada (MOE +/- 14%) at 38%, followed by the Liberals at 31% (-3). The NDP is down four points to 18%, while the Greens are up seven to 13%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives are up nine points to 65%, pushing the Liberals down six points to 16%. The NDP is up three to 14%. All of these changes are within the province's 10% MOE.

Finally, in the Prairies (MOE +/- 13%) the Conservatives are up one to 43%, while the Liberals are at 24% (-6) and the New Democrats are at 23% (+4).

You may notice that I am rounding the margins of error for the regional results. This is because Ipsos-Reid (like most others) is rounding out their polling results. It just seems simpler, because technically a 42% result in Ontario for the Conservatives might mean 41.5% or 42.4%, making the extra 0.3 in the province's 5.3% MOE somewhat irrelevant.

With the results of this poll, ThreeHundredEight would project 18 seats for the Conservatives in British Columbia, 28 seats in Alberta, 20 in the Prairies, 60 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 149. That is 20 more than were projected for Ipsos-Reid's last poll.

The Liberals would win seven seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 34 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 77, 25 fewer than last time.

The Bloc Québécois would win 52 seats in Quebec.

The New Democrats would win 11 seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, three in the Prairies, 12 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and three in Atlantic Canada for a total of 30, up 10 from last time.

Despite the 14-point national lead, the Conservatives do not reach the 155 mark needed for a majority. This might come as a surprise, but it shouldn't. In some regions of the country, the Conservatives are up against a ceiling. An improvement of three points in Ontario will not give the Conservatives more than nine seat gains, as projected for this poll. And note that, despite the overall increase in support nationwide, the party is still five points below their 2008 result in British Columbia, one point below in Quebec, and eight points below in the Prairies. To achieve their majority, the Conservatives cannot afford any losses in any part of the country.

29 comments:

  1. In Ontario the CPC were close seconds in 23 ridings in 2008

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  2. I'm trying to figure out how your model would have the NDP losing its seat in Alberta based on this poll. In 2008 the Tories took 64.6 and the NDP took 12.7% - and that yielded 27 Tories and 1 NDP in Alberta. This poll has the Tories unchanged at 65% and the NDP actually up slightly to 14% - so how do you lose a seat if the poll has you gaining on the other party???

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  3. DL, the projection has always been abstract, and it isn't a mere swing model. It gives an advantage to the stronger party, which is why it gives the Conservatives all 28 seats in Alberta in this case.

    I am still working on a riding-level projection model, so please wait for that.

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  4. All parsing of numbers aside, it is difficult not to spot a majority in the making.

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  5. BC Voice,

    "In Ontario the CPC were close seconds in 23 ridings in 2008"

    I suppose it depends on how you define "close".

    While the Tory lead over the Liberals in Ontario is larger here than in the 2008 election it is not dramatically so: a 10% gap instead of a 5.4% gap.

    There aren't 23 Ontario ridings that would be likely to change hands with this poll result.

    Eric's estimate of +9 for the CPC seems reasonable. I could even believe 10 or 12, but not 23.

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  6. Still NO majority.

    Plus I do question the Ont results as Hudak is going nowhere !!

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  7. Any way you slice it - if the Tories won 27 seats and the NDP 1 seat in 2008 based on a 65% to 13% province-wide vote spread - then it seems like there has to be a bug in your system if a 65% to 14% spread CPC/NDP spread in Alberta doesn't yield the exact same seat split?

    I'm not posting this comment because I'm "grasping" for an extra NDP seat - that's not my point. I just don't see how a seat projection model works that has a party losing a seat while gaining ground in the popular vote.

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  8. "Plus I do question the Ont results as Hudak is going nowhere !!"

    What's that got to do with anything? He's a provincial politician and this is about federal politics. In 1997 and 2000, Dalton McGuinty was "going no where" and that didn't stop the FEDERAL Liberals from winning 100 seats in ontario!

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  9. Pollsters are saying the Conservatoves will need about 42% for a majority. While it may not seem like much 3% is not easy to get, especially in the right regions. The Conservatives could probably lose 15% support in Alberta and still win between 26 & 28 seats, so that extra 15% inflates their national number but doesn't mean seat gains.

    We'll need to wait for an election before we start seeing polling that really reflects the public's views.

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  10. Peter said...
    "Still NO majority."

    Oh dear, Stephen Harper will just have to keep governing as if he had a majority.

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  11. OT:

    Bloc's Demands:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/its-not-always-quebecs-turn/article1906921/

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  12. Eric I'm not using a model but my bet reading of where things stand is a CPC seat total of 160 - 165 given the AR results. I think that they would do appreciably better in both Ontario and the East.

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  13. "Dalton McGuinty was "going no where"

    McGuinty NEVER goes anywhere. Get used to it !!

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  14. "Oh dear, Stephen Harper will just have to keep governing as if he had a majority.
    "

    Which indeed is precisely what he's been doing for five years, eh?

    That said it has been an almost singularly uninspiring Govt. No new programs really, little movement on a whole host of issues of interest to Canadians. I don't buy the "the Opposition won't let us" because that's pure shite.

    If Harper & Co can manage to stay in power for this length of time then their ability to control the House means they should have got some major Bills through but in fact it's been almost a "housekeeping" situation with no real initiative or thrust. Very odd.

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  15. Let me fix that for you peter.

    "Still NO majority." .... using Eric's Model.

    But then again, Graves has recently said both 154 seats for the tories, and that his polling methods probably underestimate Tory support. This poll shows a wider margin (nationally)... so a majority might even be possible despite the best predictions, ... and people's wishing that it isn't.


    "Plus I do question the Ont results as Hudak is going nowhere !!"

    You are probably right. This is only a 10 in point lead in Ontario, whereas the last Ekos poll put it at 12. Its probably closer to a 12 point lead for the liberals though *rolls eyes*

    Also, Please remember that the last 2 provincial polls reported here in Ontario put the Hudak Tories into majority territory, slim tho it might be. So, While Hudak is going nowhere... its likely that Mr. McGuinty probably is going somewhere else.

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  16. " its likely that Mr. McGuinty probably is going somewhere else. "

    I wouldn't bet the farm on that. I think he'll get back in though possibly with a minority and NDP support.

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  17. IR seems to be doing the same thing the PMO blamed on Ekos, only in the Conservative's favor and first. IR posted an unusually favorable poll for the Libs about two weeks ago but now they come out with this. Interesting.
    Also all those of you predicting a CPC majority on the basis of this poll maybe should remember IR tends to favor the Tories more than the Libs. Take about three percent off the CPC and put most of it on the Liberal total and you'll likely have a result close to the collective average.
    Also take a look at Eric's recent post on polsters' records at election time to get a better understanding of IR results.

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  18. this is a damn good poll for the conservatives...and it's not the first recent poll to put the conservatives close to 40% support...i tend to think that this poll is the real thing............as for a liberal minority government in ontario supported by the ndp? - that will defintely pave the way for an ensueing pc majority government next time...just like bob rae's style of governace basically rolled out the red carpet for the mike harris regime....

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  19. This lead could collapse at any moment. Conservative support as well as NDP has a tendency to be quite volatile. Besides the last two polls the Liberals have been the party with the most consistent support. The CPC goes as low as 32 then up 4 points then down then up again, the NDP has been as low as 12 and as high as 20. The Liberals have really been between 27 and 29.

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  20. IR had the CPC at 34% just before the Election was called in 2008 and at 34% the last poll they did beforethe election. Underestimated CPC support by 3.6 points..... almost 10%

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  21. "Take about three percent off the CPC and put most of it on the Liberal total and you'll likely have a result close to the collective average."

    "Also take a look at Eric's recent post on polsters' records at election time to get a better understanding of IR results."


    Huh? You gave a nice 3% number... and then pointed out an example where it amounts to the tories being 1% high in 06, and the liberals being 3% low... 1% from each party.... Then in 08 Ipsos was 3.5% low on the tories, and 3% high on the liberals.

    The evidence (what little there is since actual results from elections to compare to the theoretical results from polling) you gave directly refutes your assertion.

    Now reading on Erics site here. His data suggests that Ipsos-Reid polls more favorably to the tories (And Ekos more liberal friendly than tory friendly) than other firms. But that doesn't make them wrong, nor the others right.

    In fact, Ekos and Ipsos this week are remarkably close on even the regionals for the Tories and the liberals... the only big difference being Atlantic Canada. Nearly every result between the liberals and the tories is within a point.

    So while we could still adjust the gap narrower based on the available data for ipsos... we can also widen it based on ekos.

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  22. There's apparently another Harris Decima poll out that gives the Tories a 10 point lead (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-gains-propel-tories-to-double-digit-lead-in-poll/article1908451/).

    Of course, this could all be a fluke, but something tells me the Liberals are about to discover (yet unknown) aspects of the Tory budget that they just love. Iggy really has to stop shooting his mouth off about forcing an election and just bring the government down or not when the vote comes. Everytime he does the "your time is up routine" he sets himself up for disaster.

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  23. Progresive Tory said:

    "Besides the last two polls the Liberals have been the party with the most consistent support. The CPC goes as low as 32 then up 4 points then down then up again, the NDP has been as low as 12 and as high as 20. The Liberals have really been between 27 and 29. "

    Well, that's debatable, my recollection (readily verified by looking at some of Eric's past posts) is the Liberals have taken some plunges into the mid-20s over the past year (and some jumps in the low 30ths) while the Tories have taken some jumps up to the high-30s). But in any event, consistency isn't that great when you're consistently behind.

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  24. Yeah those pointing out my mistake in the last paragraph of my last post are right. I was going by memory and had it backward. However, other than that last paragraph I stand by my post.
    In the meantime, anyone got a crow hanging round. I'm feeling peckish.

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  25. "IR had the CPC at 34% just before the Election was called in 2008 and at 34% the last poll they did before the election. Underestimated CPC support by 3.6 points..... almost 10%"
    And all their polls in between had the Conservatives at 37% to 40%

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  26. I think it's interesting to watch the Conservatives dispute polls showing them widening their lead. I wonder if they worry that the Liberal and NDP base voters will be energized by the thought of keeping Harper out of a majority. The thought of it could jolt a lot of people out of their lethargy.

    And if the Conservatives are way out in front in the polls just before we have an election, it will be hard to say Iggy was the one who wanted it. Not that I think laying the blame costs or gains anyone a vote, but it plays to a narrative that says Iggy is just in it for himself.

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  27. "And if the Conservatives are way out in front in the polls just before we have an election, it will be hard to say Iggy was the one who wanted it. Not that I think laying the blame costs or gains anyone a vote, but it plays to a narrative that says Iggy is just in it for himself."

    That's the thing, unless Harper asks the GG to dissolve parliament (which seems unlikely), there's only going to be an election this spring if the opposition parties decide to have one. Iggy's walked himself into a trap, by threatening to bring down the government over the budget. Either he does it, playing into the "unnecesary election" narrative of the Tories (and, if polls are any indication, risking political oblivion) or he backs down (which will demoralize his supporters and make him look like a goof).

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  28. i know your last project;ion update was just on the 7th, but these last 3 polls probably warant some quick updating. The projection will pretty much have to show them at about par with their current house standing, given the latest data.

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  29. Bryan,

    Yes, I will update the projection soon.

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