Thursday, February 10, 2011

January 2011 Polling Averages

Time to look at January's polling. Five national polls were released during this month (two fewer last month), totaling about 11,253 interviews.Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 35.0% (-0.3)
Liberals - 27.6% (-0.2)
New Democrats - 15.9% (-0.3)
Bloc Québécois - 9.9% (-0.3)
Greens - 9.2% (+0.4)
Others - 2.3% (+0.6)

A relatively stable month for all the main parties, though they all dropped slightly. For the Liberals, this is a drop of one point over the last three months.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 136 (-4)
Liberals - 93 (+3)
Bloc Québécois - 53 (unchanged)
New Democrats - 26 (+1)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

A little bit of back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives, and a tidbit of good news for the New Democrats. But they had lost nine seats in December.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (5 polls - about 1,140 people)

Conservatives - 38.5% (-1.1)
New Democrats - 24.0% (+0.4)
Liberals - 23.2% (-0.2)
Greens - 12.8% (+1.5)
Others - 1.5%

December was tumultuous in BC, but January was far more stable. The Conservatives would win 22 seats (unchanged), the Liberals eight (unchanged), and the New Democrats six (unchanged).

ALBERTA (5 polls - about 1,030 people)

Conservatives - 60.1% (+5.7)
Liberals - 18.1% (-2.5)
Greens - 9.4% (-2.3)
New Democrats - 9.2% (-1.6)
Others - 3.2%

The Tories made a big gain in Alberta, getting back up to their traditional levels of support. The NDP remains mired in fourth behind the Greens. Unchanged from last month, the Conservatives would win 27 seats and the Liberals one.

SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA (5 polls - about 700 people)

Conservatives - 44.6% (-3.3)
New Democrats - 23.7% (+2.5)
Liberals - 20.9% (-2.5)
Greens - 9.0% (+2.8)
Others - 1.8%

The Conservatives and Liberals fall back as the NDP and Greens move forward. The Tories would win 20 seats (-1), the Liberals four (unchanged), and the New Democrats four (+1).

ONTARIO (5 polls - about 4,000 people)

Conservatives - 37.8% (-0.6)
Liberals - 35.0% (+1.6)
New Democrats - 15.3% (-1.4)
Greens - 10.2% (+0.3)
Others - 1.7%

The Liberals gain over two points on the Conservatives, while the NDP is down 1.6 points over the last two months. The Conservatives would win 51 seats (-2), the Liberals would win 43 (+3), and the NDP would win 12 (-1).

QUEBEC (6 polls - about 4,320 people)

Bloc Québécois - 39.8% (unchanged)
Liberals - 20.4% (-0.5)
Conservatives - 17.1% (-0.6)
New Democrats - 14.1% (+0.1)
Greens - 6.2% (+0.3)
Others - 2.5%

The Bloc holds steady while their two chief rivals fall back. This is a drop of 3.7 points for the Liberals since December. The Bloc would win 53 seats (unchanged), the Liberals 14 (unchanged), the Conservatives seven (unchanged), and the NDP one (unchanged).

ATLANTIC CANADA (5 polls - about 790 people)

Liberals - 40.6% (-0.6)
Conservatives - 30.8% (-4.5)
New Democrats - 18.8% (+0.5)
Greens - 4.9% (+0.1)
Others - 4.8%

The Conservatives drop after a big gain in December, while the NDP seems to have finally stopped the slide. The Liberals would win 21 seats (unchanged), the Conservatives eight (-1), and the NDP three (+1).

A rather unremarkable month, in the end. Very little movement in the national numbers, and no significant changes in support at the regional level. The one potentially important change in January's polling as in Ontario, as the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals has gone from five points to only 2.8.

16 comments:

  1. Which only reinforces my opinion that short of the writ being dropped we are basically stagnant.

    The Ont situation is interesting as it seems, in a slight way, to mirror the provincial political scene?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Certainly if the writ is dropped things are liable to change quickly.

    If the writ isn't dropped, it will be interesting to see what effect continued CPC advertising might have. They typically seem to be trying to drive down voter turnout, so any polling changes would be slow to emerge, I think.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I agree with Ira that things could change quickly. The libs could start rising if their message is clear and appeals to the heart(as James Travers of the star said). They need gains in Ontario and Quebec especially. Also, there is an upside to Ignatieff's low approval ratings.If there is a backlash against the negative adds and his approval goes up to say %30 from %15 it would look to the media like he and the libs had momentum. Sometimes it's good to be the underdog.

    ReplyDelete
  4. If the opposition can harness the anger out there, there could be a backlash against all the tory negative adds and voter turnout could actually increase.

    ReplyDelete
  5. seems like we are long overdue for a new poll.....

    ReplyDelete
  6. EKOS will apparently report tomorrow. Mubarak refusing to accept reality bumped them today.

    ReplyDelete
  7. This whole Egyptian thing seems to have escalated.

    Expect all news sources to be swamped by it probably all weekend.

    Meanwhile Wildrose slips in Alberta. National Puke.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "National Puke."

    Charming.

    But lets try to avoid that type of American style rhetoric.

    THIS IS CANADA!

    ReplyDelete
  9. It would be hard for Wildrose - effectively a fringe party at this point - to maintain any momentum given the changes underway within the Alberta PCs.

    Though, the budget they just presented, which could have bee a Don Getty budget, doesn't bode well for them.

    I still think it's in Alberta's interests to elect the Wildrose in their next election, and I also think the only way the PCs can avoid that is by choosing Ted Morton as their leader. Morton and Smith's economic policies would likely be very similar, so they'd end up fighting the election on social issues.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Ira what makes you think Morton could win though ?

    He came in third and most of the people who voted for him tore up their memberships and joined wildrose.

    His base in the PC party has shrunk.


    Interestingly the Wildrose Alliance isn't socially conservatives at all. They're more like Libertarians.

    Where as Ted Morton has a long history of holding evangelical positions on social issues.


    Weird dynamic but that race won't ever happen.

    I wouldn't be surprised if it was Dinning, or someone very Edmonton like James Rajotte going up against Smith.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I suppose it depends on whether the PC party machinery recognises what it is that is making the people dislike them. This new budget suggests they don't, but it could just be that they're writing legislation by committee trying to buy votes for each MLA one by one.

    You're right about Wildrose and Libertarianism. They don't appear to have social policies, and Danielle's background isn't really consistent with social conservatism. She's a status Indian, and I'm pretty sure she's an atheist.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ekos on Friday, 11 February
    37.4 / 24.8 / 14.2 / 10.7 / 9.9

    ReplyDelete
  13. Ira i've never seen any indication she's an atheist. Do you have a link to any material ?

    I wonder if the public is aware of her social views ? A lot of these conservative women get stereotyped.

    Shelly Glover is in a similiar position.

    Her vote for the trans bill surprised a lot of people. Anyone who actually knows her background wouldn't be surprised at all though.


    If Smith makes a good premier i'd support her to replace Harper midway through his second majority government.

    (If she doesn't run i'm going with Glover or Pamela Wallin.)

    ReplyDelete
  14. Correction @ Ira and Shadow: Danielle Smith doesn't have any social policies, but Wildrosers do.

    The fact is that Smith and the WAP leadership are trying their best to ensure that social conservatives can't get the upper hand in the party, but they definitely exist, and I would even hazard a guess that they outnumber the libertarians. They're just being tempered by the fact that the overriding issue at the moment is economic. But they're always there in the background, kind of like a lingering smell.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Volkov during the WR leadership campaign Smith laid out her positions on social issues pretty clearly.

    "they're always there in the background, kind of like a lingering smell"

    Let's not denigrate others over policy differences.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Shadow,

    Yeah, I know, but Smith wasn't the only candidate, wasn't she? The fact is, doesn't matter if someone wins a leadership - those with differing views are still somewhere back there, plotting and scheming.

    And I wasn't denigrating anyone, it was just the best analogy. I could've said "lingering fart," but I thought that was going to be taken the wrong way. Appears it wasn't the only one.

    ReplyDelete

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.