Monday, February 7, 2011

NDP weakness sets up two-way race between Harper and Ignatieff

While national voting intentions remain stubborn, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have made some small gains throughout the country and look set to win a minority government virtually identical to the one currently sitting in Parliament. But the political race outside of Quebec is increasingly becoming one between only the Tories and the Liberals.

You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website.

On a related note, I'm still working on the new projection model. I will definitely have it in place before the election if it begins at the end of March as many people think. For the moment, I'm running some tests, and I hope to present a comparison of different projection methods soon.

In the meantime, here are the details of the latest projection update covered in the Globe article. As usual, if you're looking for something quick and easy to read with a dash of analysis, please check out the Globe article. The below will be just the numbers.Nationally, the Conservatives are up 0.5 points to 35.9%, followed by the Liberals at 29.1% (+0.1), the New Democrats at 15.5% (-0.2), the Bloc Québécois at 10.1% (-0.2) and the Greens at 8.3% (+0.1). The Conservatives are now projected to win 138 seats (+3), the Liberals 96 (-2), the Bloc 53 (+1), and the NDP 21 (-2).

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up 0.3 points to 39.5%, followed by the Liberals at 24.7% (+1.8), the NDP at 21.7% (-2.5), and the Greens at 12% (+0.7). The Conservatives and Liberals each pick up a seat, and are projected to win 23 and nine, respectively. The NDP is down two to four.

The Conservatives are down 0.7 points to 60% in Alberta, while the Liberals are up 1.7 points to 19.7%. The NDP is down 0.4 to 9.7% and the Greens are down 0.5 to 8.2%. The Conservatives are projected to win 27 seats and the Liberals one, unchanged.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are up 1.3 points to 46%. The Liberals are at 24.3% (+0.3), the NDP at 20.7% (-1.7), and the Greens at 7.2% (unchanged). The Conservatives would win 21 seats, the Liberals five, and the NDP two. That is a gain of one seat for the Tories at the expense of the NDP.

The Conservatives are unchanged at 38.3% and 50 seats in Ontario, but the Liberals are up 0.7 points to 36.7%. The NDP is at 15.1% (-0.2) and the Greens are at 8.8% (-0.5). The Liberals would win 45 seats and the NDP 11, unchanged.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down 0.2 points to 40%, while the Liberals are down one point to 21.4%. The Conservatives are up 0.2 to 17.9%. The NDP is at 13.1% (+0.7) and the Greens are at 6.6% (+0.5). The Bloc would win 53 seats (+1), the Liberals 14 (-1), the Conservatives seven (unchanged), and the NDP one (also unchanged).

Finally, in Atlantic Canada the Liberals are down 2.2 points to 39.2% and two seats to 20. The Conservatives are up 2.1 points to 33.9% and one seat to nine. The NDP is up 0.2 points to 18.8% and one seat to three. The Greens are up 0.4 points to 5.5%.